scholarly journals Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 299-332
Author(s):  
William D. Nordhaus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Resource Depletion ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Aging Society ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Future ◽  
Diminishing Returns ◽  
Economic Thinking ◽  
Prominent Line

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO2 emissions lead to catastrophic changes in climate and human systems? Have we depleted the store of potential great inventions? Will the aging society lead to diminished innovativeness? (JEL D83, E25, O31, O32, O41, O47)

Conclusion : What Future Should We Want?

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Susskind ◽  
Daniel Susskind
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Professional Society ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Collective Knowledge ◽  
Professional Work ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Direction

In the long run, increasingly capable machines will transform the work of professionals, giving rise to new ways of sharing practical expertise in society. This is the central thesis of our book. We cannot commit to timeframes, in large part because the speed of change is not in our hands. But we are confident that the change will constitute an incremental transformation rather than an overnight revolution. In the language of the book, the shift itself can be characterized in many ways: as the industrialization and digitization of the professions; as the routinization and commoditization of professional work; as the disintermediation and demystification of professionals. Whatever terminology is preferred, we foresee that, in the end, the traditional professions will be dismantled, leaving most (but not all) professionals to be replaced by less expert people and high-performing systems. We expect new roles will arise, but we are unsure how long they will last, because these too, in due course, may be taken on by machines. In the post-professional society, we predict that practical expertise will be available online. Our strong inclination is to encourage the removal of current and future gatekeepers, and to provide people with as much access as is feasible to this collective knowledge and experience. The final step in our argument is to explain why we think that it is desirable to liberate practical expertise in this way. When we speak above and throughout about technology and its impact on the professions, we are conscious that it might sound as though we believe the future is already mapped out in detail and is somehow inevitable— that we are hardline ‘determinists’. Our analysis in Chapter 4, for example, makes it clear that we expect machines to become increasingly capable, that devices will be increasingly pervasive, and that human beings will be increasingly connected. And we certainly do anticipate an exponential growth in information technology. While we do not foresee these developments unfolding as a matter of necessity, we do regard them as extremely probable (barring asteroids, nuclear wars, pandemics, or the like). However—and this is where we part company with determinists—this does not mean that human beings have no control over future direction.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
The Future ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Future ◽  
The U.S

Even as the U.S. economy hums along, problems loom in the future. Government debt is growing along an unsustainable path, potentially mortgaging the country’s economic future. At the same time, after several decades of stagnating wages and living standards for much of the population, the nation faces increasing needs to invest in education and healthcare, and to bolster public infrastructure and research. How can the United States meet both today’s needs and tomorrow’s obligations? This book offers solutions resting on five guideposts. First, facts and evidence should play a key role in policy analysis and choices . Second, public policy should reflect our values as a people, including freedom, fairness, opportunity, and individual and social responsibility—toward one another, between rich and poor, and from generation to generation. Third, both the private sector and the government can—and must—be part of the solution to our problems. Fourth, taxes and spending are inextricably linked, and policymakers should consider them together. Fifth, we should focus on realistic solutions. The proposals offered here have three core themes: control entitlement spending; invest in the future; and raise and reform taxes. Taken together, the proposals would restore fiscal balance, boost economic growth, reduce economic inequality, improve economic mobility, and raise living standards for future generations.

scholarly journals Economic development: How should we proceed?

2004 ◽  
Vol 44 (160) ◽  
pp. 39-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stojan Stamenkovic ◽  
Miladin Kovacevic ◽  
Davor Savin ◽  
Ivan Nikolic ◽  
Vladimir Vuckovic
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Innovative Management ◽  
Technological Base ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

This paper attempts to answer the following questions: where were we in a systemic and development sense in October 2000? What changes have occurred in the last three years? What are the main problems regarding economic development and, opposed to them, the created stereotypes? What are the key mistakes from economic aspect? What should be done in the short run and in the medium run? In addition to providing the necessary level of investment as the most important tool of sustainable development and growth in gross domestic product, it is also necessary to ensure: conditions for efficient market functioning, firm and uncompromising legal protection of businesses innovative management, modern technological base. If such conditions are fulfilled, it will be possible to transform the economy, to ensure sustainable economic growth and to regularly service foreign debts. The alternative is a populist scenario, with a short-run rise in living standards and its fall in the medium and long run.

scholarly journals Qualitative Characteristics of the Housing in the Novosibirsk Region: Modern Trends

Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 220-232
Author(s):  
L. Yu. Rudi ◽  
I. S. Klyueva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Housing Conditions ◽  
Novosibirsk Region ◽  
Special Place ◽  
The Future ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

The problem of improving the living standards of the population of our country is one of the central ones.The direction and rate of economic growth at present and in the future largely depend on its solution.In this regard, the importance of studies of the main groups of indicators of living standards is increasing, among which housing conditions occupy a special place. The article analyzes indicators characterizing the living conditions of the population of the Novosibirsk region from the perspective of the qualitative characteristics of the housing stock. Particular attention is paid to the substantiation of trends in their changes, which are very contradictory. In connection with what they cannot be considered unambiguously as positive or negative. Such an analysis is useful in implementing the housing policy of the region.

scholarly journals Information Technology, Economic Growth, And Employment: Evidence From Time-Series Analyses

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Doh-Khul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Role Of It ◽  
The U.S

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; margin: 0in 34.2pt 0pt 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Since the mid-1990s, numerous studies have shown the interactions between developments in Information Technology (IT) or the number of Internet subscribers and the general economy such as economic growth. Some show that development in IT has significantly affected growth, led by higher productivity, whereas others show no significant role of IT in the growth. Thus, no general consensus has been reached on the effects of IT development on economic (GDP) growth. By applying two popular time-series statistical tools (multivariate cointegration analysis and vector error correction model) with the total number of Internet subscribers in the U.S., this paper finds: (1) there is a long-run equilibrium linkage among the development of IT (subscriber numbers), economic growth, and employment; and (2) there are bi-directional Granger-causality relationships present between IT and economic growth, whereas there exists a uni-directional relationship between IT and employment in the U.S. </span></span></p>

scholarly journals Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (6) ◽  
pp. 1440-1467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoumitro Chatterjee ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Reproductive Period ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Fertility Change ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Malthusian Trap

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints. (JEL D15, I12, I15, J13, J16, O15, O47)

scholarly journals Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century

1990 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B. Barsky ◽  
J. Bradford De Long
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Bear Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Smart Money ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bull And Bear Markets ◽  
Future Growth

The bull and bear markets of this century have suggested that large stock market swings reflect irrational “fads and fashions.” We argue instead that investors perceived shifts in the long-run rate of future growth and that stock prices are sufficiently sensitive to expectations about the future that these perceived shifts plausibly generated the swings of the twentieth century. We document that analysts often viewed as “smart money” assessed fundamentals, based on their perceptions of future economic growth, in a way that tracked decade-to-decade swings closely.

The Role of the Future in Law and Finance

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio M Pacces
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Investor Protection ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Law And Finance ◽  
Access To Finance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Harm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThe success of a capitalist economy rests upon the ability of finance to sustain potentially infinite growth, based on funding today the output of tomorrow. Finance, however, needs rules. The aim of the law and finance scholarship is precisely to identify the best regulation of finance to support economic growth. Traditionally, law and finance is concerned with investor protection. This would be sufficient if the future were predictable. However, because the future is uncertain, the prices of financial assets are flawed and in the short run they may result in serious mistakes, if not widespread crises. Although these mistakes are corrected in the long run, significant harm may occur in the meantime. Financial law should therefore be concerned not only with investor protection, but also with mitigating the temporary excesses of markets in allowing or restricting access to finance. The challenge of this goal is to remedy market myopia without allowing policymakers to abuse the power of governments. However imperfect, prices remain the best instrument of discipline and growth in a market economy.

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