scholarly journals Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (6) ◽  
pp. 1440-1467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoumitro Chatterjee ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Reproductive Period ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Fertility Change ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Malthusian Trap

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints. (JEL D15, I12, I15, J13, J16, O15, O47)

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

scholarly journals The Effects of Foreign Resource Inflow and Savings on the Economic Growth of South Africa: A VAR Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 232-241
Author(s):  
Temitope L. A.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Using Data

This study adopts both the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis and the Impulse-Response Function (IRF) to examine the importance and the effects of domestic savings and foreign direct investment (FDI) on South African economy, using data spanning over the period 1975 to 2011. While the level of domestic savings is quite low, compared to other emerging economies, South Africa has also been struggling to attract inflow of foreign resources. The form of savings in South Africa is different from the western way of savings; hence the low levels of domestic savings. The variables considered were tested for stationarity and they were all stationary before proceeding to test for cointegration and then estimate and VAR. The cointegration test revealed that there was at least one cointegrating equation; which signifies that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables. The results from the VAR Granger test of causality depicted that domestic savings lead economic growth, while economic growth leads investment. This result of the IRF also showed that while increased domestic savings is important to improve the level of economic growth in South Africa, it also leads FDI. This means that the economic environment needs to be suitable in order to attract foreign investments. The results obtained are reliable and stable as the model passes a battery of diagnostic tests. The study proposes some recommendations for policy.

scholarly journals THE CO - INTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE DUTIES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
ADEGBITE, TAJUDEEN ADEJARE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Excise Duty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Excise Duties ◽  
Integration Analysis

This study examined the co-integration analysis of effect of value added tax and excise duties on economic growth in Nigeria. It also looked at the direction of causality among value added tax excise duty, interest rate, exchange rate and economic growth employing the method of Johansen co-integration and the Granger causality tests using data spanning the period 1994- 2014. Results showed that VAT has positive significant impact on GDP in the short run but has negative impact on GDP in the long run with (  = 1.296417; t=7.41; P>|t|= 0.000) and ( =- 13.38159; z=-3.60 , P>|z|= 0.000) respectively. Also, VAT does not granger cause GDP. Excise duty impacted GDP negatively in the short run but positively in the long run with (=-1.111069; t=-5.16, , P>|t|= 0.000) and ( =37.54469; z = 4.07; P>|z|= 0.000) respectively. It is recommended that, once the value added tax impacted economic growth positively in the shortrun but negative in the long run, government should increase the rate of value added tax in Nigeria, this will in turn boosting the revenue generation in Nigeria. Also, government should increase excise duty on tobacco and alcoholic so as to have positive significant impact on economic growth in the short run.

scholarly journals Fixed Investment and Economic Growth: ARDL and Causality Exploration for SADC Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Reginald Masimba Mbona ◽  
Chilombo Stephania Mumba ◽  
Tinashe Mangudhla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Marginal Returns

In assessing the short run and the long-run effects of fixed investment and economic growth among Southern Africa countries, we evaluated the economic progress of the SADC (Southern African Development Committee) region. Our objective is to determine how variables (GDP, purchasing power parity, inflation, electricity, balance-of-payments, and unemployment) can be affected by the fixed investment. In determining how fixed investment affects economic activities and policies among the states, the ADRL estimation approach is applied. Using data from 13 countries in the SADC region from the period 1992-2018, we enumerate the variables’ marginal returns against the fixed investment component. The results of diagnostic and other tests show that all statistical procedures are robust. The result proves that the benefits of fixed investment are yielded over a long period rather than short periods. As a result, the cost in the short term cannot be compared to the benefits that will be enjoyed later by an economy as it becomes productive. Furthermore, the lack of consistent fixed investment among countries will eventually lead to insufficient cash flow, which will negatively affect the currency. These results would seem to suggest that the introduction of policies that promote investment will massively contribute to increased productivity and positive economic growth in the region.

scholarly journals Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Titus Isaiah Zayone ◽  
Shida Rastegari Henneberry ◽  
Riza Radmehr
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

This study investigates the effects of Angola’s agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on the country’s economic growth using data from 1980 to 2017. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the effect of sectoral exports on economic growth. The estimation results show that while exports from all three sectors (manufacturing, mineral, and non-mineral) have driven Angola’s economic growth in the long-run; only non-manufacturing (agricultural and mineral) exports have led its growth in the short-run. Moreover, growth in non-export GDP was driven by mineral exports in the long-run and agricultural exports in the short-run. Considering the statistically significant and positive impact of mineral exports on the Angolan GDP as well as on its non-export GDP, this study points to a lack of evidence supporting the Dutch disease phenomenon in Angola.

scholarly journals Official Development Aid: Plaster in A Wound? Evidence Using Data From Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cherkos Meaza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Aid Effectiveness ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Official Development Aid

Abstract The flow of aid to developing countries has increased massively and they receive billions of dollars per year in the form of aid from bilateral and multilateral donors. However, the economic growth achieved by many developing countries in general has not been satisfactory. Poverty is still there and resulted in a custom of aid dependence and foster the opportunity for the corrupted political leader. The conclusion on aid effectiveness is doubtful among economists, found to be inconclusive. This paper intends to see how ethiopian economy is reacting to the flow of foreign aid coming from rest of the world viz-a-viz the current most prestigous and influential arguments against and pro-effectiveness of aid. A time series on important parameters extending from 1981 to the most current 2017 is used and an econometrics techniques ECM is employed to examine the short run dynamics and long run relationship among the variables. The result of the short run dynamics showed that aid has a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth. However, the impacts turns to be positive in the long run. economic growth measured by the real GDP adjusts to its long run equilibrium with an average speed of about 25.7 percent annually and it will roughly take it about 4 years to restore back to equilibrium, ceteris paribus.

scholarly journals Identifying enablers of innovation in developed economies: A National Innovation Systems approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agostino Menna ◽  
Philip R. Walsh ◽  
Homeira Ekhtari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Global Innovation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Innovation Approach

It has been recognized that innovation drives the long-run economic growth of nations and increasingly governments are placing innovation at the center of their economic growth strategies. International variation in the investment on innovation presents an opportunity to examine key enablers of innovation-driving policy choices. Countries find themselves at different stages of economic development and innovation performance and so their relative levels of innovation inputs and outputs are likely to be different. In this study we employ a systems of innovation approach to examine what enables improvements in innovation potential among developed countries. Using data from the 2017 Global Innovation Index (GII) Report, we subjected 770 data measures to an analysis of 242 relationships involving changes in the GII’s innovation inputs/outputs scores and overall innovation potential of 35 OECD countries over a five year period (2012 to 2016). Our findings suggest that instituting policies that improve access to open and competitive markets is the most significant enabler for raising a developed country’s innovation potential.

scholarly journals Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafnida Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Push Forward ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this paper to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Indonesia by using data from 1986 until 2014. Johansen co-integration and Granger causality are utilized to analyze the data. The financial development is measured by the ratio of broad money and other control variables such as trade openness and government expenditure. The finding indicates that there is long run relationship between financial development and economic growth. Meanwhile, a unidirectional relationship had been found, it come from economic growth to financial development. Therefore, a policy to increase economic growth will push forward in proper to improve financial development in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Money Market Instruments and Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-43
Author(s):  
Akarara Ebierinyo Ayebaemi ◽  
Eniekezimene A. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Commercial Paper ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
Using Data

This paper investigated the effect of selected money market instruments on the growth of the Nigerian economy. Using data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2017, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Bound Testing approach to co-integration. Result shows no form of convergence among the variables in the long-run. It also revealed that money market variables are positively related with economic growth rate both in the short and long-run, except for Certificate of Deposit (COD) and Commercial Paper (CPR) that has an inverse relationship with economic growth in the long-run. Broad Money Supply (M2G) does not seem to have a significant relationship with GDPR both in the short and long-run, while Treasury Certificate (TRC) has a significant positive impact on GDPR in the short-run but an insignificant impact on GDPR in the long-run. Thus, caution should be taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the use of Treasury Certificate as a means of managing liquidity in the short-run, as its prolonged use would amount to no significant effect in the economy. Also, Certificate of Deposit and Commercial Paper should be used on short term basis, if otherwise; their impact on the economy would be negative.

Social reproduction, gender equality and economic growth

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elissa Braunstein ◽  
Rachid Bouhia ◽  
Stephanie Seguino
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Reproduction ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One

Abstract This paper presents a conceptual Kaleckian macroeconomic model and principal component analysis that link structures of economic growth and development with those of social reproduction and gender inequality. Employment, output and long-run prospects for growth are driven by class dynamics as well as social reproduction, defined as the time and money it takes to produce, maintain and invest in the labour force. How social reproduction is organised—the extent to which reproduction takes place in the household, public or market sectors, and the gender distribution of the labour in each—influences current aggregate demand and long-run productivity growth. Based on this model, and using data for a panel of 156 countries between 1991 and 2015, the paper presents empirical estimates of social reproduction regime by country and region, identifying under what circumstances systems of growth on the one hand and social reproduction on the other reinforce or contradict one another.

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