Symposium on the Budget Deficit

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet L Yellen
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Majority Opinion ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit

Is the ballooning federal budget deficit a serious economic problem? The papers in this symposium provide four perspectives on this issue. Robert Barro and Robert Eisner disagree sharply with the “majority” opinion concerning deficits. In contrast, Edward Gramlich and Douglas Bernheim are more sympathetic to the view that budget deficits lower national saving and thus contribute to a reduction in future living standards.

Impact of federal budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds, 1960-2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
pp. 198-208
Author(s):  
Don Capener ◽  
Richard Cebula ◽  
Fabrizio Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ex Ante

Purpose To investigate the impact of the federal budget deficit (expressed as a per cent of the Gross Domestic Product, GDP) in the US on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds and to provide evidence that is both contemporary and covers an extended time period, namely, 1960 through 2015. Design/methodology/approach The analysis constructs a loanable funds model that involves a variety of financial and economic variables, with the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds as the dependent variable. The dependent variable is contemporaneous with the federal budget deficit and two other interest rate measures. Accordingly, instrumental variables are identified for each of these contemporaneous explanatory variables. The model also consists of four additional (lagged) explanatory variables. The model is then estimated using auto-regressive, i.e., AR(1), two-stage least squares. Findings The principal finding is that the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa rated corporate bonds is an increasing function of the federal budget deficit, expressed as a per cent of GDP. In particular, if the federal budget deficit were to rise by one per centage point, say from 3 to 4 per cent of GDP, the ex ante real interest rate would rise by 58 basis points. Research limitations/implications There are other time-series techniques that could be applied to the topic, such as co-integration, although the AR(1) process is tailored for studying volatile series such as interest rates and stock prices. Practical/implications The greater the US federal budget deficit, the greater the real cost of funds to firms. Hence, the high budget deficits of recent years have led to the crowding out of investment in new plant, new equipment, and new technology. These impacts lower economic growth and restrict prosperity in the US over time. Federal budget deficits must be substantially reduced so as to protect the US economy. Social/implications Higher budget deficits act to reduce investment in ew plant, new equipment and new technology. This in turn reduces job growth and real GDP growth and compromises the health of the economy. Originality/value This is the first study to focus on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the ex ante real long term cost of funds to firms in decades. Nearly all related studies fail to focus on this variable. Since, in theory, this variable (represented by the ex ante real yield on Moody’s Baa rated long term corporate bonds) is a key factor in corporate investment decisions, the empirical findings have potentially very significant implications for US firms and for the economy as a whole in view of the extraordinarily high budget deficits of recent years.

scholarly journals Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Eisner
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
News Media ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Relevant Model ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Economics Profession

Whatever the real or imagined ills of the economy, the news media, most politicians and a fair proportion of the economics profession are quick to point to the culprit: “the budget deficit.” No matter that few appear to know or care precisely what deficit they are talking about or how it is measured. No matter that few bother to explain in terms of a relevant model just how government deficits may be expected to impact the economy. No matter that few offer any empirical data to sustain their judgments. I believe there are serious problems with our fiscal policy. These relate to fundamental national priorities and the provision of public goods, now and for the future. But the current size of the federal deficit is not “our number one economic problem,” if indeed it is a problem at all.

scholarly journals APPROBATION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 589-595
Author(s):  
D.M. Mikhaylov
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The article tested a modification of the G. Markowitz’s model for the task of managing the federal budget deficit in the formation of the federal law about the federal budget for the next fiscal year and for the planning period. The logical-mathematical method of empirical research was used in modeling with the use of theoretical conclusions in the sphere of public finance. The possibility of practical use of such a model is justified by the given assessment of the model parameters based on actual data for 2010-2017. Based on historical data, restrictions on the marginal volume of revenue planning from deficit financing sources are assumed. Because of macroeconomic uncertainty potential revenues are projected using interval coefficients. The effectiveness of the federal budget deficit management portfolio constructed according to the model is proposed to be compared with the deficit management parameters laid down in the federal budget in 2018. In addition, based on the assessment of the impact of diversification and expectations of economic agents (in the model presented as "transaction costs") the article discussed the feasibility of using the model in planning the management of the federal budget deficit. Taking into account the empirical results it is concluded that ignoring the expectations of the planning period in the formation of the federal budget deficit management strategy can lead to significant losses in revenues.

A Nation in Debt: Economists Debate the Federal Budget Deficit

1988 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Randall G. Holcombe ◽  
Richard H. Fink ◽  
Jack C. High
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit

On the U.S. Budget Deficit Dilemma: Has Television Contributed?

1996 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Ali F. Darrat ◽  
Bill P. Bowers
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Media ◽  
Fiscal Conservatism ◽  
Fast Evolution ◽  
The U.S

We advance several theoretical reasons for arguing that expansion in television viewership may have contributed to the recent escalation in the U.S. budget deficit. We then develop a multivariate model to test the validity of the hypothesis using alternative measures of television viewership. The empirical results could not reject our contention that the fast evolution of the U.S. television viewership since the early 1970s has significantly contributed to the escalating size of the federal budget deficit over and above the effects of several other possible macro determinants. This evidence provides some support to the claim that there exists a “liberal” bias within the media (particularly television) that undermines fiscal conservatism. Therefore, it appears advisable for policy-makers to take into account the role of television if they aspire to understand and ultimately control the mounting federal budget deficit.

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