scholarly journals Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Titus Isaiah Zayone ◽  
Shida Rastegari Henneberry ◽  
Riza Radmehr
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

This study investigates the effects of Angola’s agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on the country’s economic growth using data from 1980 to 2017. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate the effect of sectoral exports on economic growth. The estimation results show that while exports from all three sectors (manufacturing, mineral, and non-mineral) have driven Angola’s economic growth in the long-run; only non-manufacturing (agricultural and mineral) exports have led its growth in the short-run. Moreover, growth in non-export GDP was driven by mineral exports in the long-run and agricultural exports in the short-run. Considering the statistically significant and positive impact of mineral exports on the Angolan GDP as well as on its non-export GDP, this study points to a lack of evidence supporting the Dutch disease phenomenon in Angola.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth in Jordan? Evidence from Ordinary Least Square Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ibrahim Mugableh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The main objective of this paper is to analyze equilibrium and dynamic causality relationships between monetary policy tools and economic growth in Jordan for the period (1990-2017). For this purpose, it considers the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction (VEC) models estimations. The results of ARDL approach show that monetary policy variables (i.e., real interest rate and money supply) have positive impact on economic growth in long-run and short-run except inflation rate. In addition, the results of VECM indicate bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and monetary policy variables in long-run and short-run.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals DO INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES FOSTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA?

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath ◽  
Danny Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Ict Development

This paper investigates, using annual data from 1980 to 2014, whether adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) fosters economic growth in Indonesia. We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique on an augmented neoclassical growth model. The empirical results indicate a positive effect of ICT development on economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. The other regressors, such as total factor productivity, human capital, and capital per worker, also positively affect economic growth. From a policy perspective, the Indonesian government should promote ICT development through greater investment.

scholarly journals Effects of COVID-19 on Indian Energy Consumption

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kentaka Aruga ◽  
Md. Monirul Islam ◽  
Arifa Jannat
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Relaxed Energy ◽  
Positive Effect

Just after the Indian government issued the first lockdown rule to cope with the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in March 2020, the energy consumption in India plummeted dramatically. However, as the lockdown relaxed, energy consumption started to recover. In this study, we investigated how COVID-19 cases affected Indian energy consumption during the COVID-19 crisis by testing if the lockdown release had a positive impact on energy consumption and if richer regions were quicker to recover their energy consumption to the level before the lockdown. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals that a long-run relationship holds between the COVID-19 cases and energy consumption and that the COVID-19 cases have a positive effect on Indian energy consumption. This result indicates that as lockdown relaxed, energy consumption started to recover. However, such a positive impact was not apparent in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions, which are the poorest regions among the five regions investigated in the study. This implies that poorer regions need special aid and policy to recover their economy from the damage suffered from the COVID-19 crisis.

Electricity Consumption–Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach in the Tunisian Context

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092092543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zouheir Mighri ◽  
Hanen Ragoubi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Causal Nexus

This article investigates the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Tunisia for the period 1971–2013 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and Granger causality tests. The empirical findings indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Besides, they support the conservation hypothesis in the long run, while they confirm the growth hypothesis in the short run.

scholarly journals Financial Development, Financial Openness and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian E. Bassey ◽  
Okoiarikpo Benjamin Okoi ◽  
Ikpe Kingsley Imoh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Insurance Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of financial development and financial openness on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. This was done through the use of the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. In doing this, the ratio of credit to the private sector to the GDP and broad money to narrow money were used as measures of financial development and financial openness respectively. The study found that financial development has a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long and short-run. The study also found that financial openness has a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long-run. The results of the study further revealed that simultaneous existence of financial development and financial openness has an insignificant but positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long-run. Based on the findings, the study recommended that the CBN should increase its efforts towards the regulation and supervision of the financial sector to reduce the incidence of financial distress. The study also recommended that efforts to develop the mortgage and insurance sector and the capital market should be intensified through regulatory improvements, improvements in the instruments in use in the market as well as public enlightenment programs to increase awareness of the potentials of the mortgage, insurance and capital markets. The final recommendation made by the study is that more restrictions should be placed on the inflow of capital in and out of the country to guard against sudden capital flow reversals.

Globalization of Stock Market, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 157-168
Author(s):  
Ecenur Ugurlu Yildirim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Market Economic ◽  
Short Run ◽  
International Investors

Although the significance of the foreign investors constructing the significant magnitude of GDP increases for the emerging markets, their equity markets' attractiveness is affected by their vulnerability to geopolitical risk. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the effect of the stock market globalization on the correlation between economic growth and geopolitical risk in Brazil. After the dynamic correlation between economic growth and the geopolitical risk in Brazil is obtained by DCC-GARCH(1,1) methodology, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to examine the asymmetric relationship among variables. The findings demonstrate while the changes in the globalization of the stock market decrease the connection between economic growth and geopolitical risk in the long-run, the positive changes in the participation of foreign investors make economic growth and geopolitical risk more connected the in short-run. Moreover, this impact is asymmetric. This chapter provides valuable implications for international investors and policymakers.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110271
Author(s):  
Ibrar Hussain ◽  
Jawad Hussain ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Shabir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Calibration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
S Model ◽  
The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

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