scholarly journals Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Pinotti
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rate ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Criminal Records ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Percentage Points

We estimate the effect of immigrant legalization on the crime rate of immigrants in Italy by exploiting an ideal regression discontinuity design: fixed quotas of residence permits are available each year, applications must be submitted electronically on specific “click days,” and are processed on a first come, first served basis until the available quotas are exhausted. Matching data on applications with individual-level criminal records, we show that legalization reduces the crime rate of legalized immigrants by 0.6 percentage points on average, on a baseline crime rate of 1.1 percent. (JEL J15, J61, K37, K42)

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

Does Free Community College Improve Student Outcomes? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design

2021 ◽  
pp. 016237372199314
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Bell
Keyword(s):  
Community College ◽  
Student Outcomes ◽  
Degree Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Bachelor's Degree ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
College Gpa ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Bachelor's Degree Attainment

In this article, I utilize a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of Tulsa Achieves—a prevalent and understudied type of tuition-free college program. In contrast to concerns regarding tuition-free community college suppressing bachelor’s degree attainment, I find that Tulsa Achieves increased the likelihood of transferring to 4-year colleges by 13 to 14 percentage points and increased bachelor’s degree attainment by approximately 2 percentage points. The estimates for shorter outcomes are underpowered to detect policy relevant effects, but suggest Tulsa Achieves increased college GPA and had a null impact on credit accumulation, retention, and graduation from Tulsa Community College.

scholarly journals The Effects of “Girl-Friendly” Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harounan Kazianga ◽  
Dan Levy ◽  
Leigh L Linden ◽  
Matt Sloan
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Test Scores ◽  
Treatment Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
School Construction ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
School Program ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Standard Deviations

We evaluate a “girl-friendly” primary school program in Burkina Faso using a regression discontinuity design. After 2.5 years, the program increased enrollment by 19 percentage points and increased test scores by 0.41 standard deviations. For those caused to attend school, scores increased by 2.2 standard deviations. Girls' enrollment increased by 5 percentage points more than boys' enrollment, but they experienced the same increase in test scores as boys. The unique characteristics of the schools are responsible for increasing enrollment by 13 percentage points and test scores by 0.35 standard deviations. They account for the entire difference in the treatment effects by gender. (JEL I21, I28, J16, O15)

scholarly journals The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Dague ◽  
Thomas DeLeire ◽  
Lindsey Leininger
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Public Insurance ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Percent Decline ◽  
Rule Out

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of non-elderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children (“childless adults”). We take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap in Wisconsin, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants placed on a waitlist using a regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods. We find enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment, with an estimated effect size of just over 5 percentage points, a 12 percent decline. Confidence intervals rule out positive and large negative effects. (JEL G22, H75, I13, I18, I38, J22)

scholarly journals Does Career Risk Deter Potential Entrepreneurs?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D Gottlieb ◽  
Richard R Townsend ◽  
Ting Xu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Entrepreneurial Ventures ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Wage Employment ◽  
Low Costs ◽  
One Year ◽  
Cutoff Date

Abstract Do potential entrepreneurs remain in wage employment because of concerns that they will face worse job opportunities should their entrepreneurial ventures fail? Using a Canadian reform that extends job-protected leave to one year for women giving birth after a cutoff date, we study whether the option to return to a previous job increases entrepreneurship. A regression discontinuity design reveals that a longer job-protected leave increases entrepreneurship by 1.9 percentage points. These entrepreneurs start incorporated businesses that hire employees, in industries in which experimentation before entry has low costs and high benefits.

scholarly journals Do Restrictions on Home Equity Extraction Contribute to Lower Mortgage Defaults? Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity at the Texas Border

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 268-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Mortgage Default ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Design Framework ◽  
Home Equity ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Home Value ◽  
Texas Border ◽  
Mortgage Defaults

Texas is the only US state that limits home equity borrowing to 80 percent of home value. This paper exploits this policy discontinuity around Texas’ interstate borders and uses a multidimensional regression discontinuity design framework to find that limits on home equity borrowing in Texas lowered the likelihood of mortgage default by about 1.5 percentage points for all mortgages and 4–5 percentage points for non-prime mortgages. Estimated non-prime mortgage default hazards within 25 to 100 miles on either side of the Texas border are about 20 percent smaller when crossing into Texas. (JEL G21, G28, R31)

scholarly journals The Effect of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Percentage Points

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare turnout under closed list proportional representation and under an open list, plurality-at-large system where voters can vote for individual candidates from the same or different party-lists. I find that the open list system increases turnout by between 1 and 2 percentage points. The results suggest that open list systems, which introduce competition both across and within parties, are conducive to more voter turnout.

scholarly journals Beyond Work Ethic: Religion, Individual, and Political Preferences

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Basten ◽  
Frank Betz
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Homogeneous Region ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Per Capita

We investigate the effect of Reformed Protestantism, relative to Catholicism, on preferences for leisure, and for redistribution and intervention in the economy. We use a Fuzzy Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design to exploit a historical quasi-experiment in Western Switzerland, where in the sixteenth century a hitherto homogeneous region was split and one part assigned to adopt Protestantism. We find that Reformed Protestantism reduces referenda voting for more leisure by 14, redistribution by 5, and government intervention by 7 percentage points. These preferences translate into higher per capita income as well as greater income inequality. (JEL D12, D31, D72, H23, N33, Z12)

scholarly journals Trickle-Up Political Socialization: The Causal Effect on Turnout of Parenting a Newly Enfranchised Voter

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 698-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
JENS OLAV DAHLGAARD
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Political Socialization ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Considerable Effect ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Turnout Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Discernible Effect

Scholars have argued that children affect their parents’ political behavior, including turnout, through so-called trickle-up socialization. However, there is only limited causal evidence for this claim. Using a regression discontinuity design on a rich dataset, with validated turnout from subsets of Danish municipalities in four elections, I causally identify the effect of parenting a recently enfranchised voter. I consistently find that parents are more likely to vote when their child enters the electorate. On average across all four elections, I estimate that parents become 2.8 percentage points more likely to vote. In a context where the average turnout rate for parents is around 75%, this is a considerable effect. The effect is driven by parents whose children still live with them while there is no discernible effect for parents whose child has left home. The results are robust to a range of alternative specifications and placebo tests.

scholarly journals Cell Phone Access and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design in Afghanistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Robert M. Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Cell Phone ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Social Monitoring ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
Phone Access ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of cell phone access on election fraud. I combine cell phone coverage maps with the location of polling centers during the 2009 Afghan presidential election to pinpoint which centers were exposed to coverage. Results from a spatial regression discontinuity design along the two-dimensional coverage boundary suggest that coverage deters corrupt behavior. Polling centers just inside coverage report a drop in the share of fraudulent votes of 4 percentage points, while the likelihood of a fraudulent station decreases by 8 percentage points. Analyses of the effect of coverage on citizen participation in election monitoring, election-related insurgent violence, and the tribal composition of villages suggest that the observed declines in fraud are likely attributed to cell phone access strengthening social monitoring capacity. (JEL D72, K16, K42, O17, Z13)

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