Integrated estimation of pipeline failure probability

2014 ◽  
pp. 453-458
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Integrated Estimation

scholarly journals Research on a Safety Assessment Method for Leakage in a Heavy Oil Gathering Pipeline

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1340
Author(s):  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Xiangsu Chen ◽  
Chaohai Fan
Keyword(s):  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Heavy Oil ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Pipeline Failure

At present, the number of oil and gas gathering and transportation pipelines is numerous, and leakage accidents occur frequently. Each year, due to pipeline failure, there are immeasurable consequences for people and the environment around the affected pipelines. In order to reduce the risk of leakage accidents in heavy oil gathering pipelines and prevent the occurrence of major spills, it is of great significance to carry out safety assessments of them. However, failure data of these pipelines is seriously deficient and statistical methods used to evaluate pipeline safety are incompatible. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment system for heavy oil gathering pipelines in the absence of failure data. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) for the leak safety evaluation of heavy oil gathering pipelines is established via mapping from a bow-tie (BT) model. Then, information diffusion theory is combined with fuzzy set theory to obtain the failure probability of each factor affecting the pipeline failure, and then the failure probability of the pipeline is obtained by the full probability formula. In addition, in order to assess the extent of consequences due to accidents, variable fuzzy set theory is used to comprehensively consider the consequences of the leakage of heavy oil gathering pipelines. Finally, the above two parts are combined to form a safety assessment system to realize risk management and control for pipelines, which is necessary to ensure the safety of heavy oil gathering pipelines.

Predicting the Failure Probability and Reliability Based Design, Optimization for Pipelines

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shabbir Memon ◽  
Obaidur Rahman Mohammed ◽  
Hamid Roozbahani ◽  
Hamid M. Lankarani
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Failure Prediction ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Corrosion Rates ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Pipeline Failure

A probabilistic model is developed in this study for calculating the failure probability and finding the associated reliability for a given pipeline in a plant affected by the time-dependent failure by corrosion. This is accomplished by applying a probabilistic approach to the Shell-92 pipeline failure prediction model. The Monte Carlo simulation scheme is used to predict the probability of failure. The life cycle cost is also estimated based on predicted probability density function, which shows that failure cost is dominating the maintenance cost in overall life cycle cost. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to investigate the influence of corrosion parameters on the probability of failure which reflects the effect of axial-radial corrosion rates and depth-length of corrosion defect on failure probability. At the end, optimized corrosion rates are also predicted using the reliability based design and optimization (RBDO) technique, in which the probabilistic constraint has been utilized based on the Shell-92 pipeline failure prediction model.

scholarly journals PIPELINE RELIABILITY LEVEL FOR THE DIFFERENT COLLAPSIBLE STRATA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (48) ◽  
pp. 192-205
Author(s):  
S. F. Pichugin ◽  
P. Yu. Vynnykov
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Deformation Modulus ◽  
Fine Sand ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Sand Soil ◽  
Collapsible Soil ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Element Simulation ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Water Saturated

Probabilistic analysis of the loessial collapsible soil deformation modulus in the water saturated for two areas of pipeline laying in the Poltava and Kherson region were performed. Respective distributing laws and statistics were obtained. With help of Ansys finite element simulation was performed in the form of the Monte-Carlo method. Pipeline deformation in the loessial collapsible strata local soaking area was modeled; internal operating pressure and temperature difference were considered. Pipeline failure probability by longitudinal stresses parameter in the fine sand soil was obtained, random functions stochastic apparatus was used. Pipeline failure probability by longitudinal stresses parameter with similar geometric parameters and internal operating pressure simulation results were compared with the base composed by fine sand and loessial collapsible strata 7 and 13 meters.

Quantitative-mechanistic model for assessing landslide probability and pipeline failure probability due to landslides

2017 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 212-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Pablo Alvarado-Franco ◽  
David Castro ◽  
Nicolas Estrada ◽  
Bernardo Caicedo ◽  
Mauricio Sánchez-Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Pipeline Failure

Application of Fuzzy Mathematics Theory in Determination of Acceptable Failure Probability

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Li Zhang ◽  
Xin-Wei Zhao ◽  
Jin-Heng Luo ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
He-Lin Li
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematics ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Acceptable Probability ◽  
Severity Degree

The acceptable failure probability of different gas pipeline should differ as a result of their severity degree of pipeline failure consequence. In this paper, several influencing factors to the pipeline acceptable probability were analyzed and a method for the determination of the severity degree of gas pipeline failure consequence is proposed. According to the fuzzy mathematics theory, the method of calculating the corresponding acceptable failure probability of a certain gas pipeline on the basis of severity degree of its failure consequence is established.

Analysis of Pipeline Failure Probability Caused by Earthquake Based on the Allowable Strain

ICPTT 2011 ◽  
2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huabing Zhang ◽  
Wuyi Cheng ◽  
Lijian Zhou ◽  
Honglong Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Pipeline Failure

Integrated estimation of strength properties of complex-structure coal seams

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 33-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu.N. Linnik ◽  
◽  
V.Yu Linnik ◽  
A.B. Zhabin ◽  
A.V. Polyakov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Structure ◽  
Strength Properties ◽  
Coal Seams ◽  
Integrated Estimation
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