Cumulative Prospect ‹eory and Risk Acceptability

2011 ◽  
pp. 253-338
Keyword(s):  
Risk Acceptability

DIRECTIONS OF IMPROVEMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN THE FIELD OF LOGISTICS ACTIVITIES

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Lytvynenko ◽  
◽  
Taisiya Kozlova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Rational Management ◽  
Enterprise Logistics ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Logistics Activity

The changeable and unpredictable development of the enterprises’ external environment is one of the appearance causes of various types of business activities' risks, including logistics. The purpose of this article is to develop recommendations on improving the risk management of enterprises’ logistics activities in the context of instability. Achieving this goal requires consideration of the main stages of this process regarding the logistics activities' risks, providing advices on improving the process of risk management of logistics orientation. The article explores the process of analyzing the logistics activities' risks of the enterprise. Proceeding from the theoretical provisions of management and summarizing the practical experience of research in the field of systematic analysis of the enterprises' logistics activities risks, there are traced the organization's peculiarities of such analysis, and the main directions of its further improvement are proposed. All actions in the article, which are related to the analysis of the risk of enterprise logistics activity, are proposed to carry out in a certain sequence in the article. This sequence is given in the form of a structural scheme of systematic analysis of the risks of the enterprise logistics activities. Based on the objectivity of the existence of logistics activities' risks and the need to ensure the rational management of them, the algorithm of the risk management in the enterprise logistics system covers the stages of risks' identification, their qualitative and quantitative assessment, diagnostics, assessment of risk acceptability and application of neutralization measures to unacceptable logistical risks. It is concluded that the logistics activities risks combine different types of risks of all components and elements both in the process of changing material, financial and information flows, as well as in the process of managing the risks arising in the logistics system

The Twenty-Five-Year FDA Approval Controversy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Green
Keyword(s):  
Population Control ◽  
Obstetrics And Gynecology ◽  
Marketing Approval ◽  
Approval Process ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Drug Risk ◽  
Fda Approval ◽  
Political Controversy ◽  
Long Acting ◽  
Risk Acceptability

Judith Weisz's story of the politics of drug risk management shifts its focus to Depo-Provera's lengthy FDA marketing approval process. Here her story explores the scientific and political controversy over the FDA's assessment of the drug's risk and its policy judgments about the risk acceptability of its marketing approval. The controversy was dominated by the fear that the drug could cause breast, endometrial, and cervical cancer, and by Depo-Provera's uniqueness as a long-acting contraceptive and its use in international population control programs. The controversy began when the FDA relied on its Obstetrics and Gynecology Advisory Committee to grant the drug limited marketing approval in 1974, which it withdrew after congressional criticism, and then, following an intra-agency review, disapproved the drug for general contraceptive marketing which, once again, brought congressional scrutiny because of its impact on international family planning programs. An FDA Public Board of Inquiry, convened at Upjohn's request and chaired by Judith Weisz, conducted an intensive scientific assessment of the drug's animal and human studies at its 1983 hearings and then made a recommendation, accepted by the FDA in 1986, to disapprove the drug for general contraceptive marketing.

scholarly journals Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France) test site

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Dunand ◽  
P. Gueguen
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Social Importance

Abstract. France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

scholarly journals Development of an Occupational Risk Assessment Tool for Laboratory Animal Facilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
April M. Clayton ◽  
James Hayes ◽  
George W. Lathrop ◽  
Nathaniel Powell
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Laboratory Animal ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Laboratory Research ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Animal Care

Introduction: Laboratory animal facilities aim to provide excellence in animal care and welfare and support scientific research. Critical to these goals is to ensure a safe work environment for personnel comprising veterinary and animal care, laboratory research, and maintenance staff. Objective: Thus, performing occupational risk assessments allows for evaluation of risks from identified hazards associated with a variety of tasks ongoing in laboratory animal facilities. Methods: Herein, we present the development of an occupational risk assessment tool purposed to capture the dynamics of work performed in laboratory animal facilities, calculate and prioritize identified risks associated with procedures and processes, and inform and evaluate risk mitigations. Results: We also discuss a risk assessment for refining sharps use in nonhuman primate husbandry and care to demonstrate the utility of this tool to improve occupational safety in our animal facility. Conclusion: This tool and framework evolve into a holistic occupational risk management system that identifies, evaluates, and mitigates occupational risks; determines risk acceptability; consistently ensures communication and consultation with frontline personnel, stakeholders, senior leadership, and subject matter experts in biosafety, science, and animal care and welfare; and continuously strives to improve and enhance the operations of laboratory animal facilities.

Risk Perception: Experts and the Public

1998 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Sjöberg
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Nuclear Waste ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Social Dilemmas ◽  
Moral Values ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Risk Acceptability

Perceived risk is a crucial factor in the social dilemmas surrounding the risks and hazards of the environment. This paper reviews behavioral research on perceived risk of the public and experts, giving special attention to nuclear waste risk. Experts and the public frequently have very different views of risk, and three cases are distinguished and explanations for the differences between experts and the public are outlined. Theories and models of perceived risk are then discussed. Most theories have been found to have only low or modest explanatory power with regard to level of perceived risk, and even less when it comes to risk acceptability. It is pointed out that risk perception is probably less cognitive than has previously been believed, and that such factors as attitudes and moral values play a crucial role.

Risk Based Decision Making for Bridge under Multi Hazard

2011 ◽  
Vol 105-107 ◽  
pp. 1215-1219
Author(s):  
Zeng Zhong Wang ◽  
Yu Xin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Protective Measure ◽  
Network System ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Decision Support Framework ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
Risk Acceptability

The bridges are of much importance to the transportation network system, as they connect key highways at crucial nodes. This paper reviews and discussed risk-based methodologies to assess the risk acceptability and cost-effectiveness of protective measures for bridge under multiple manmade or natural hazards. Three risk acceptance criteria based on fatality risks, failure probabilities and net benefit assessment were described and discussed. The decision support framework accompanying these risk acceptance criteria considers hazard probabilities, value of human life, physical and indirect damages, risk reduction and protective measure costs were studied and an illustrative example was presented.

A sampling-based probabilistic path planner for multirotor air vehicles in cluttered environments

2016 ◽  
Vol 231 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Brown ◽  
Jonathan Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Algorithm Performance ◽  
Cluttered Environments ◽  
Estimation Uncertainty ◽  
Massively Parallel Computers ◽  
Probability Of Collision ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Path Planner

Successful navigation of small, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in cluttered environments is a challenging task, especially in the presence of turbulent winds and state estimation uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic path planner for UAVs operating in cluttered environments. Unlike previous sampling-based approaches which select robust paths from a set of trajectory candidates, the proposed algorithm seeks to modify an initial desired path so that it satisfies obstacle avoidance constraints. Given a desired path, Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is performed and obstacle collision risks are quantified at discrete intervals along the trajectory. A numerical optimization algorithm is used to modify the flight path around obstacles and reduce probability of collision while maintaining as much of the originally desired path as possible. The proposed path planner is specifically designed to leverage embedded massively parallel computers for near real-time uncertainty propagation. Thus the planner can be run in real-time in a feedback manner, modifying the path appropriately as new measurements are obtained. Example results for a standard quadrotor show the ability of the path planning scheme to successfully generate trajectories in cluttered environments. Trade studies characterize algorithm performance as a function of obstacle density and collision risk acceptability.

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