Flow simulation model performance assessment using entropy approach

2004 ◽  
pp. 23-27
Author(s):  
D Stephenson ◽  
A Ilunga
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Flow Simulation

Stochastic simulation for determining the design flood of cascade reservoir systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 54-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baohong Lu ◽  
Huanghe Gu ◽  
Ziyin Xie ◽  
Jiufu Liu ◽  
Lejun Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Design Values ◽  
Stochastic Simulation Model ◽  
The Impact

Stochastic simulation is widely applied for estimating the design flood of various hydrosystems. The design flood at a reservoir site should consider the impact of upstream reservoirs, along with any development of hydropower. This paper investigates and applies a stochastic simulation approach for determining the design flood of a complex cascade of reservoirs in the Longtan watershed, southern China. The magnitude of the design flood when the impact of the upstream reservoirs is considered is less than that without considering them. In particular, the stochastic simulation model takes into account both systematic and historical flood records. As the reliability of the frequency analysis increases with more representative samples, it is desirable to incorporate historical flood records, if available, into the stochastic simulation model. This study shows that the design values from the stochastic simulation method with historical flood records are higher than those without historical flood records. The paper demonstrates the advantages of adopting a stochastic flow simulation approach to address design-flood-related issues for a complex cascade reservoir system.

Performance assessment of storage policies of the Vaigai Reservoir using a simulation model

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Jothiprakash ◽  
J. Nirmala ◽  
R. Arunkumar
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Performance Assessment

scholarly journals A two asset cash flow simulation model

1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard C. Grinold ◽  
Robert M. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation

scholarly journals Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1827-1851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Séférian ◽  
Marion Gehlen ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Laure Resplandy ◽  
James C. Orr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Assessment ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
System Models ◽  
Marine Biogeochemistry ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

scholarly journals Flow Simulation Using Local Grid Refinements to Model Laminated Reservoirs

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 ◽  
pp. 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Gomes Correia ◽  
Célio Maschio ◽  
Denis José Schiozer
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Flow Behavior ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Coarse Grid ◽  
Thin Layers ◽  
Static Properties ◽  
Dynamic Representation ◽  
Medium Flow ◽  
Local Grid

Super-giant carbonate fields, such as Ghawar, in Saudi Arabia, and Lula, at the Brazilian pre-salt, show highly heterogeneous behavior that is linked to high permeability intervals in thin layers. This article applies Local Grid Refinements (LGR) integrated with upscaling procedures to improve the representation of highly laminated reservoirs in flow simulation by preserving the static properties and dynamic trends from geological model. This work was developed in five main steps: (1) define a conventional coarse grid, (2) define LGR in the conventional coarse grid according to super-k and well locations, (3) apply an upscaling procedure for all scenarios, (4) define LGR directly in the simulation model, without integrate geological trends in LGR and (5) compare the dynamic response for all cases. To check results and compare upscaling matches, was used the benchmark model UNISIM-II-R, a refined model based on a combination of Brazilian Pre-salt and Ghawar field information. The main results show that the upscaling of geological models for coarse grid with LGR in highly permeable thin layers provides a close dynamic representation of geological characterization compared to conventional coarse grid and LGR only near-wells. Pseudo-relative permeability curves should be considered for (a) conventional coarse grid or (b) LGR scenarios under dual-medium flow simulations as the upscaling of discrete fracture networks and dual-medium flow models presents several limitations. The conventional approach of LGR directly in simulation model, presents worse results than LGR integrated with upscaling procedures as the extrapolation of dynamic properties to the coarse block mismatch the dynamic behavior from geological characterization. This work suggests further improvements for results for upscaling procedures that mask the flow behavior in highly laminated reservoirs.

scholarly journals Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2447-2460
Author(s):  
Stuart R. Mead ◽  
Jonathan Procter ◽  
Gabor Kereszturi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Flow ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Spatial Covariance ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Pixel Pair

Abstract. The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed (“actual”) map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This “fuzzification” of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data.

scholarly journals Patient Flow Simulation Using Historically Informed Synthetic Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezra Kenny ◽  
Hamed Hassanzadeh ◽  
Sankalp Khanna ◽  
Justin Boyle ◽  
Sandra Louise
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Patient Flow ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Average Patient ◽  
Future Demands ◽  
Healthcare Administrators ◽  
Using Data

Hospital overcrowding is a major problem for healthcare systems around the globe. In order to better estimate future demands and adequate resources for coping with such demands, statistical and computerised modelling can be applied. This can then allow healthcare administrators and decision makers to quantify the impacts of various “what-if” scenarios on hospital performance measures. This paper investigates the application of Discrete Event Simulation towards optimising Emergency Department resources while measuring overall length of stay and queuing time of emergency patients as a target performance measure. In particular, we explore strategies for generating historically informed synthetic data that helps the simulation model track patient flow through the target hospital over a future time frame. Using the developed simulation model, several resource configurations are tested using data from one of the busiest emergency departments in the state of Queensland as the baseline while quantifying the impacts of such changes on key patient flow metrics. It was found that adding a single bed (and associated resources) to the emergency department would result in a 23% decrease in average patient treatment delay.

scholarly journals Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart R. Mead ◽  
Jonathan Procter ◽  
Gabor Kereszturi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Flow ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Spatial Covariance ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Pixel Pair

Abstract. The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed (actual) map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This fuzzification of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter, at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. less false negatives results in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated, and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision making from simulated data.

ACV lift system flow simulation model

1980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. WACHNIK ◽  
W. LIVINGSTON
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
System Flow
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