A Physics-Based Model for Post-Earthquake Fire Spread considering Damage to Building Components Caused by Seismic Motion and Heating by Fire

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keisuke Himoto ◽  
Kyosuke Mukaibo ◽  
Yasuo Akimoto ◽  
Ryo Kuroda ◽  
Akihiko Hokugo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Reasonable Agreement ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Prototype Model ◽  
New Model ◽  
Kobe Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Motion ◽  
Burning Behavior ◽  
Building Components

The prototype model previously developed by the authors was improved in order to simulate the behavior of fire spread in an earthquake-affected urban area. In the new model, seismic motion and heating by fire are both considered as the causes of damage to building components. The damage affects the burning behavior of a fire-involved building, as well as the behavior of building-to-building fire spread. For validation of the new model, a simulation of the fire spread that followed 1995 Kobe earthquake was conducted. The behavior of the fire spread obtained by the numerical simulation was compared with the observed data. Reasonable agreement was obtained with regard to the number of burned buildings.

A Post-Earthquake Fire Spread Model considering Damage of Building Components due to Seismic Motion and Heating of Fire

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 1319-1330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keisuke Himoto ◽  
K. Mukaibo ◽  
Y. Akimoto ◽  
R. Kuroda ◽  
A. Hokugo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Seismic Motion ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Building Components ◽  
Fire Spread Model

scholarly journals Fire Spread Of Urban Area At The Kobe Earthquake

1997 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 959-970
Author(s):  
Y. Namba ◽  
K. Yasuno ◽  
T. Nishitani
Keyword(s):  
Urban Area ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Kobe Earthquake

scholarly journals Development of the city-scale chemistry transport model CityChem-EPISODE and its application to the city of Hamburg

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Karl
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Urban Atmosphere ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Urban Background ◽  
New Model ◽  
The City

Abstract. This paper describes the City-scale Chemistry (CityChem) extension of the urban dispersion model EPISODE with the aim to enable chemistry/transport simulations of multiple reactive pollutants on urban scales. The new model is called CityChem-EPISODE. The primary focus is on the simulation of urban ozone concentrations. Ozone is produced in photochemical reaction cycles involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted by various anthropogenic activities in the urban area. The performance of the new model was evaluated with a series of synthetic tests and with a first application to the air quality situation in the city of Hamburg, Germany. The model performs fairly well for ozone in terms of temporal correlation and bias at the air quality monitoring stations in Hamburg. In summer afternoons, when photochemical activity is highest, modelled median ozone at an inner-city urban background station was about 30 % lower than the observed median ozone. Inaccuracy of the computed photolysis frequency of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is the most probable explanation for this. CityChem-EPISODE reproduces the spatial variation of annual mean NO2 concentrations between urban background, traffic and industrial stations. However, the temporal correlation between modelled and observed hourly NO2 concentrations is weak for some of the stations. For daily mean PM10, the performance of CityChem-EPISODE is moderate due to low temporal correlation. The low correlation is linked to uncertainties in the seasonal cycle of the anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions within the urban area. Missing emissions from domestic heating might be an explanation for the too low modelled PM10 in winter months. Four areas of need for improvement have been identified: (1) dry and wet deposition fluxes; (2) treatment of photochemistry in the urban atmosphere; (3) formation of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA); and (4) formation of biogenic and anthropogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The inclusion of secondary aerosol formation will allow for a better sectorial attribution of observed PM levels. Envisaged applications of the CityChem-EPISODE model are urban air quality studies, environmental impact assessment, sensitivity analysis of sector-specific emission and the assessment of local and regional emission abatement policy options.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of Grenfell Tower fire. Part 3—Numerical simulation of the Grenfell Tower disaster: Contribution to the understanding of the fire propagation and behaviour during the vertical fire spread

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Guillaume ◽  
Virginie Dréan ◽  
Bertrand Girardin ◽  
Faiz Benameur ◽  
Maxime Koohkan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Propagation

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF NATURAL AND SERENE ENVIRONMENT TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF LIVING IN TINY HOMES

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Murni Zainal ◽  
Azhan Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Prototype Model ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Supportive Environment ◽  
Detached House ◽  
Quality Of Living

Tiny homes are defined as a small dwelling in the form of a moveable unit, cabin or detached house which is sized to meet its occupants’ needs. Besides affordability, sustainability and minimalist lifestyle, the occupants’ demand for a cosy environment with a window or porch overlooking a garden. The objectives of the study are to investigate the benefits of utilising nature and serenity in promoting a supportive environment to achieve user well-being. Quantitative methodology was applied in this study using three case studies (CS1 at Urban area: Prototype Model of Microhouse, CS2 at Sub urban area: The Cabin Boutique Resort and SC3 at Outskirts area: Meraki Tiny House). The tool, ``Perceived Sensory Dimensions “(PSDs)” was used for respondents to evaluate the surrounding environment of the case studies by showing photos of two sensory dimension models (PSDs Nature and Serene). Close-ended questionnaires were distributed to the 21 respondents from the millennials group, to rate each perception for each case study. The results have shown that a natural and serene environment for CS3 is most preferred because of the aspirational quality of its PSDs, followed by CS2 and CS1.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a clinical and genetic model for predicting risk of severe COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian S. Dite ◽  
Nicholas M. Murphy ◽  
Richard Allman
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Genetic Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Accurate Prediction ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Prototype Model ◽  
List Type ◽  
New Model

SummaryClinical and genetic risk factors for severe COVID-19 are often considered independently and without knowledge of the magnitudes of their effects on risk. Using SARS-CoV-2 positive participants from the UK Biobank, we developed and validated a clinical and genetic model to predict risk of severe COVID-19. We used multivariable logistic regression on a 70% training dataset and used the remaining 30% for validation. We also validated a previously published prototype model. In the validation dataset, our new model was associated with severe COVID-19 (odds ratio per quintile of risk=1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.64, 1.90) and had excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.732, 95% CI=0.708, 0.756). We assessed calibration using logistic regression of the log odds of the risk score, and the new model showed no evidence of over- or under-estimation of risk (α=−0.08; 95% CI=−0.21, 0.05) and no evidence or over- or under-dispersion of risk (β=0.90, 95% CI=0.80, 1.00). Accurate prediction of individual risk is possible and will be important in regions where vaccines are not widely available or where people refuse or are disqualified from vaccination, especially given uncertainty about the extent of infection transmission among vaccinated people and the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.Key resultsAccurate prediction of the risk of severe COVID-19 can inform public heath interventions and empower individuals to make informed choices about their day-to-day activities.Age and sex alone do not accurately predict risk of severe COVID-19.Our clinical and genetic model to predict risk of severe COVID-19 performs extremely well in terms of discrimination and calibration.

scholarly journals Experimental study on examining the fire load of a small compartment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriella László ◽  
Flóra Hajdu ◽  
Rajmund Kuti
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Fire Protection ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Fire Load ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Burning Process ◽  
The People

Abstract In Hungary a lot of people live in condominiums or in block of flats where fire often occurs despite of precise design and effective fire protection arrangements. This means a hazard for the people living there, for the building constructions and also for the environment. A deeper knowledge of the burning process and examining the negative effects of fire load on building constructions with scientific methods are actual questions nowadays. In order to get to know the phenomena more accurately, fire spread in a bedroom was modeled and numerical simulation was carried out, which is presented in this paper in detail. These experiences may help increasing the fire safety and preventing fires in apartments. The simulations were carried out considering the characteristics of the Hungarian architecture.

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