Direct and Indirect Economic Losses from Earthquake Damage

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 683-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
David S. Brookshire ◽  
Stephanie E. Chang ◽  
Hal Cochrane ◽  
Robert A. Olson ◽  
Adam Rose ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Damage State ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ripple Effects ◽  
Scenario Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
Actual Damage ◽  
Business Interruption

Earthquakes generate a variety of economic impacts. To obtain a consistent measure, the actual damage state must be linked to the dollar losses of the capital stock, and then translated into direct business interruption losses and the ensuing ripple effects that occur throughout the economy. The Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology (HAZUS) facilitates a consistent set of loss estimations. The direct loss module of HAZUS calculates loss estimates for repair and replacement of building stock (structural and nonstructural), building contents and inventory, and business interruption losses. The direct losses information provides the inputs to the indirect loss module. The indirect loss module estimates the impacts by economic sectors over time and accounts for both earthquake-induced supply shortages and demand reductions. The results of a case study are presented that focus on the economic impacts of various scenario earthquakes that might occur in the Boston metropolitan area.

scholarly journals Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 239980832199870
Author(s):  
Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽  
Joost R Santos
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
National Capital Region ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

scholarly journals Tracking an Atmospheric River in a Warmer Climate: from Water Vapor to Economic Impacts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Sandy Dall'erba ◽  
Shuyi Huang ◽  
Andre Avelino ◽  
Ali Mehran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Western Washington

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work, we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis river basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario where the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty including: a) alternative future radiative forcings, b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases, however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increased moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption were significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

scholarly journals Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2679-2694 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gil ◽  
A. Garrido ◽  
N. Hernández-Mora
Keyword(s):  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Impacts ◽  
Indirect Impacts

Abstract. The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.

Socioeconomic Clustering in Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Housing Stock

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 619-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S.R. Prasad ◽  
Yogendra Singh ◽  
Amir M. Kaynia ◽  
Conrad Lindholm
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Urban Habitat ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment

A seismic risk assessment methodology based on socioeconomic clustering of urban habitat is presented in this paper. In this methodology, the city is divided into different housing clusters based on socioeconomic level of occupants, representing reasonably uniform seismic risk. It makes an efficient utilization of high resolution satellite data and stratified random sample survey to develop the building stock database. Ten different classes of socioeconomic clusters found in Indian cities are defined and 34 model building types (MBTs) prevalent on the Indian subcontinent have been identified and compared with the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) scale, European macroseismic scale (EMS), parameterless scale of seismic intensity (PSI), and HAZUS classifications. Lower and upper bound damage probability matrices (DPMs) are estimated, based on the MSK and EMS intensity scales and experience from past earthquakes in India. A case study of Dehradun, a city in the foothills of Himalayas, is presented. The risk estimates using the estimated DPMs have been compared with those obtained using the PSI scale. It has been observed that poorer people are subjected to higher seismic risk, both in terms of casualties and in terms of percent economic losses.

Economic Impacts: Lost Income, Ripple Effects, and Recovery

2019 ◽  
pp. 205-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey J.D. Hewings ◽  
Ramamohan Mahidhara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Ripple Effects

A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1279-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Field ◽  
Keith Porter ◽  
Kevin Milner
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Main Shocks ◽  
Scenario Earthquakes ◽  
Elastic Rebound ◽  
Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
Aftershock Statistics

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

scholarly journals Phylogenetic Analyses of Rotavirus A from Cattle in Uruguay Reveal the Circulation of Common and Uncommon Genotypes and Suggest Interspecies Transmission

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 570
Author(s):  
Matías Castells ◽  
Rubén Darío Caffarena ◽  
María Laura Casaux ◽  
Carlos Schild ◽  
Samuel Miño ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Products ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Interspecies Transmission ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Beef Calves ◽  
Rotavirus A ◽  
P Type ◽  
Neonatal Calf Diarrhea

Uruguay is one of the main exporters of beef and dairy products, and cattle production is one of the main economic sectors in this country. Rotavirus A (RVA) is the main pathogen associated with neonatal calf diarrhea (NCD), a syndrome that leads to significant economic losses to the livestock industry. The aims of this study are to determine the frequency of RVA infections, and to analyze the genetic diversity of RVA strains in calves in Uruguay. A total of 833 samples from dairy and beef calves were analyzed through RT-qPCR and sequencing. RVA was detected in 57.0% of the samples. The frequency of detection was significantly higher in dairy (59.5%) than beef (28.4%) calves (p < 0.001), while it did not differ significantly among calves born in herds that were vaccinated (64.0%) or not vaccinated (66.7%) against NCD. The frequency of RVA detection and the viral load were significantly higher in samples from diarrheic (72.1%, 7.99 log10 genome copies/mL of feces) than non-diarrheic (59.9%, 7.35 log10 genome copies/mL of feces) calves (p < 0.005 and p = 0.007, respectively). The observed G-types (VP7) were G6 (77.6%), G10 (20.7%), and G24 (1.7%), while the P-types were P[5] (28.4%), P[11] (70.7%), and P[33] (0.9%). The G-type and P-type combinations were G6P[11] (40.4%), G6P[5] (38.6%), G10P[11] (19.3%), and the uncommon genotype G24P[33] (1.8%). VP6 and NSP1-5 genotyping were performed to better characterize some strains. The phylogenetic analyses suggested interspecies transmission, including transmission between animals and humans.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Regional Milk Pricing Authorities: The Case of Dairy Compacts

2000 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Bailey
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Class I ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
Compact Region ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Economic Tradeoffs

Congress consented to the creation of the Northeast Interstate Dairy Compact in the 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act. Interest is now growing in expanding this compact and creating new multi-regional dairy compacts. Dairy compacts provide a floor for Class I fluid prices and thus stabilize and enhance farm milk prices in compact regions. This analysis indicates that multi-regional dairy compacts will result in clear economic tradeoffs between dairy farmers, processors, retailers, and consumers. While dairy farmers within the compact region may economically benefit from higher farm milk prices, processors, retailers and consumers in the compact region and dairy farmers outside the compact region will face economic losses.

scholarly journals Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Using Typhoon-Flood Disaster Analysis: An Application to Guangdong Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 8980
Author(s):  
Zhuoqun Gao ◽  
R. Richard Geddes ◽  
Tao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Flood Disasters ◽  
Indirect Economic Losses

Guangdong Province is one of China’s largest and most developed regions. It is home to more than 113 million people and features unique geographical and climatic characteristics. Typhoons that pass through often result in heavy rainfall, which causes flooding. The region’s risk of typhoon and flood disasters, and the resulting indirect economic impacts, have not been fully assessed. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a method for assessing the spatial and temporal cumulative risk of typhoon-induced flood disasters, and the resulting indirect economic impacts, in order to deal with the uncertainty of disasters. We combined an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial analysis using a geographic information system (GIS) to produce a comprehensive weighted-risk assessment from three different aspects of disaster, vulnerability, and resilience, with 11 indicators. A new method for computing risk based on spatial and temporal cumulative patterns of typhoon-induced flood disasters was introduced. We incorporated those direct impacts into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate indirect economic losses in alternative scenarios according to different risk levels. We found that the risk in the coastal area is significantly higher than that in the northern mountainous area. The coastal areas of western Guangdong, Pearl River Delta, and Chaoshan Plain face the greatest risk. Our results indicate that typhoon and flood disasters have negative effects on the real GDP, residents’ income, consumption, and several other macroeconomic indicators. We found differing disaster impacts across industrial sectors, including changes in the output, prices, and flow of labor among industries. Our estimates provide scientific support for environmental planning, spatial planning, and disaster-risk management in this important region. They are also of reference value for the development of disaster management strategies in similar climatic regions around the world.

Simplified Expression for Seismic Fragility Estimation of Sliding-Dominated Equipment and Contents

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 709-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tara C. Hutchinson ◽  
Samit Ray Chaudhuri
Keyword(s):  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Simple Expression ◽  
Seismic Fragility ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Distribution Profile ◽  
Damage State ◽  
Fragility Function ◽  
Daunting Task ◽  
Recent Earthquakes

Damage to small equipment and contents during seismic events has gained considerable attention following recent earthquakes, largely due to the potential for operational downtime, which results in significant economic losses. The estimation of losses from this interior building damage is a daunting task, due to the complexity of types of equipment and the randomness of their location within the structure. Nonetheless, a precursor to calculating such losses is a reasonable association between structural and nonstructural (equipment or contents) demands. Cast in a probabilistic framework, such an association is best represented through the use of seismic fragility curves, where the probabilities of exceeding a given damage state is correlated with an input parameter. In this paper, analytically developed seismic fragility curves for various unattached equipment and contents are calculated and presented. The emphasis of the study is on rigid scientific equipment and contents, which are often placed on the surface of ceramic laboratory benches in science laboratories or other buildings. Only uniaxial seismic excitation is considered to provide insight into the form of the fragility function. Generalized fragility curves are then developed and a simple expression is presented, which is envisioned to be very useful from a design perspective. The usefulness of the proposed expression is illustrated via a simple numerical example coupled with a design code-specified horizontal acceleration distribution profile for an example building structure.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document