scholarly journals Tracking an Atmospheric River in a Warmer Climate: from Water Vapor to Economic Impacts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Sandy Dall'erba ◽  
Shuyi Huang ◽  
Andre Avelino ◽  
Ali Mehran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Western Washington

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work, we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis river basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario where the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty including: a) alternative future radiative forcings, b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases, however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increased moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption were significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

scholarly journals Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Sandy Dall'erba ◽  
Shuyi Huang ◽  
Andre Avelino ◽  
Ali Mehran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Western Washington

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

scholarly journals Analysis of the 2008 heavy snowfall over South China using GPS PWV measurements from the Tibetan Plateau

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1369-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Xie ◽  
F. Wei ◽  
G. Chen ◽  
T. Zhang ◽  
L. Hu
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
South China ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Good Opportunity ◽  
The One

Abstract. Four successive storms with freezing rain and snow blanketed South China from 10 January–2 February 2008, when the precipitation increased more than 200%–300% above the average for the corresponding period. The unusual atmospheric circulation associated with these disasters was caused by many complex physical processes, one of which was the active southern branch of currents over low latitude ocean areas which provided plenty of water vapor for South China. The ground-based GPS Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) measurements on the Tibetan Plateau, supported by the China and Japan Intergovernmental Cooperation Program (JICA), has compensated for the lack of conventional observations of atmospheric water vapor in this area and provided a good opportunity to analyze the character of the water vapor transport in the four heavy precipitation processes. It was found that the GPS stations located on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau were on the route of the water vapor transport during 25 January–29 January and 31 January–2 February when two heavy precipitation events occurred over South China. The increasing trend from the one to two days pre-observation by the GPS stations was then associated with the heavy precipitation. Precipitation during 10 January–16 January and 18 January–22 January was significantly related to the abnormal variation of the one day pre-observation by the GPS stations located on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. This research indicates that ground-based GPS measurements are applicable to data assimilation in operational numerical models.

scholarly journals Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1617-1632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
Darren L. Jackson ◽  
Paul Neiman ◽  
Mimi Hughes ◽  
Lisa Darby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Detection Tool ◽  
Match Rate

Abstract An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water vapor and water vapor transport fields are compared between the U.S. West Coast (WCUS) and the SEUS, highlighting stronger seasonal variation in integrated water vapor in the SEUS and stronger seasonal variation in IVT in the WCUS. The climatological analysis suggests that IVT values above ~500 kg m−1 s−1 (as incorporated into an objective identification tool such as the AR detection tool used here) may serve as a sensible threshold for defining ARs in the SEUS. Atmospheric river impacts on heavy precipitation in the SEUS are shown to vary on an annual cycle, and a connection between ARs and heavy precipitation during the nonsummer months is demonstrated. When identified ARs are matched to heavy precipitation days (>100 mm day−1), an average match rate of ~41% is found. Results suggest that some aspects of an AR identification framework in the SEUS may offer benefit in forecasting heavy precipitation, particularly at medium- to longer-range forecast lead times. However, the relatively high frequency of SEUS heavy precipitation cases in which an AR is not identified necessitates additional careful consideration and incorporation of other critical aspects of heavy precipitation environments such that significant predictive skill might eventually result.

scholarly journals Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Monica Ionita ◽  
Viorica Nagavciuc
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m−1 s−1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

scholarly journals Analysis of Intense Poleward Water Vapor Transports into High Latitudes of Western North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1732-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Roberge ◽  
John R. Gyakum ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
North America ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Subtropical Oceans ◽  
Pineapple Express

Abstract Significant cool season precipitation along the western coast of North America is often associated with intense water vapor transport (IWVT) from the Pacific Ocean during favorable synoptic-scale flow regimes. These relatively narrow and intense regions of water vapor transport can originate in either the tropical or subtropical oceans, and sometimes have been referred to as Pineapple Express events in previous literature when originating near Hawaii. However, the focus of this paper will be on diagnosing the synoptic-scale signatures of all significant water vapor transport events associated with poleward moisture transport impacting the western coast of Canada, regardless of the exact points of origin of the associated atmospheric river. A trajectory analysis is used to partition the events as a means of creating coherent and meaningful synoptic-scale composites. The results indicate that these IWVT events can be clustered by the general area of origin of the majority of the saturated parcels impacting British Columbia and the Yukon Territories. IWVT events associated with more zonal trajectories are characterized by a strong and mature Aleutian low, whereas IWVT events associated with more meridional trajectories are often characterized by an anticyclone situated along the California or Oregon coastline, and a relatively mature poleward-traveling cyclone, commonly originating in the central North Pacific.

A Theoretical Model of Localized Heat and Water Vapor Transport in the Human Respiratory Tract

1986 ◽  
Vol 108 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Hanna ◽  
P. W. Scherer
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Transfer Coefficients ◽  
Human Respiratory Tract

A steady-state, one-dimensional theoretical model of human respiratory heat and water vapor transport is developed. Local mass transfer coefficients measured in a cast replica of the upper respiratory tract are incorporated into the model along with heat transfer coefficients determined from the Chilton-Colburn analogy and from data in the literature. The model agrees well with reported experimental measurements and predicts that the two most important parameters of the human air-conditioning process are: 1) the blood temperature distribution along the airway walls, and 2) the total cross-sectional area and perimeter of the nasal cavity. The model also shows that the larynx and pharynx can actually gain water over a respiratory cycle and are the regions of the respiratory tract most subject to drying. With slight modification, the model can be used to investigate respiratory heat and water vapor transport in high stress environments, pollutant gas uptake in the respiratory tract, and the connection between respiratory air-conditioning and the function of the mucociliary escalator.

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