Optimization-Based Probabilistic Consequence Scenario Construction for Lifeline Systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1531-1551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Gearhart ◽  
Nathanael Brown ◽  
Dean Jones ◽  
Linda Nozick ◽  
Natalia Romero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Realistic Case ◽  
Lifeline System ◽  
Highway Network ◽  
Lifeline Systems

The construction of a suite of consequence scenarios that is consistent with the joint distribution of damage to a lifeline system is critical to properly estimating regional loss after an earthquake. This paper describes an optimization method that identifies a suite of consequence scenarios that can be used in regional loss estimation for lifeline systems when computational demands are of concern, and it is important to capture the spatial correlation associated with individual events. This method is applied to a realistic case study focused on the highway network in Memphis, Tennessee, within the New Madrid Seismic Zone. This case study illustrates that significantly fewer consequence scenarios are needed with this method than would be required using Monte Carlo simulation.

scholarly journals Social-network-based water supply network sectorization methodology using monte carlo simulation to predict economical and operational benefits

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Enrique Campbell ◽  
Amilkar Illaya-Ayza ◽  
Joaquín Izquierdo ◽  
Rafael Pérez-García ◽  
Idel Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Management ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Water Supply Network (WSN) sectorization is a broadly known technique aimed at enhancing water supply management. In general, existing methodologies for sectorization of WSNs are limited to assessment of the impact of its implementation over reduction of background leakage, underestimating increased capacity to detect new leakage events and undermining appropriate investment substantiation. In this work, we raise this issue and put in place a methodology to optimize sectors' design. To this end, we carry out a novel combination of the Short Run Economic Leakage Level concept (SRELL- corresponding to leakage level that can occur in a WSN in a certain period of time and whose reparation would be more costly than the benefits that can be obtained). With a non-deterministic optimization method based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in combination with Monte Carlo simulation. As an example of application, methodology is implemented over a 246 km pipe-long WSN, reporting 72 397 $/year as net profit.

Application of life cycle assessment and Monte Carlo simulation for enabling sustainable product design

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekar Vinodh ◽  
Gopinath Rathod
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Sustainable Product Design ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Product ◽  
Manufacturing Organization

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated technical and economic model to evaluate the reusability of products or components. Design/methodology/approach – Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is applied to obtain the product’s environmental performance. Monte Carlo simulation is utilized for enabling sustainable product design. Findings – The results show that the model is capable of assessing the potential reusability of used products, while the usage of simulation significantly increases the effectiveness of the model in addressing uncertainties. Research limitations/implications – The case study has been conducted in a single manufacturing organization. The implications derived from the study are found to be practical and useful to the organization. Practical implications – The paper reports a case study carried out for an Indian rotary switches manufacturing organization. Hence, the model is practically feasible. Originality/value – The article presents a study that investigates LCA and simulation as enablers of sustainable product design. Hence, the contributions of this article are original and valuable.

Uncertainty Analysis and Monitoring of Earth Dam

2014 ◽  
Vol 580-583 ◽  
pp. 954-957
Author(s):  
Ling Qiang Yang ◽  
Rui Gao ◽  
Yan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Earth Dam ◽  
Earth Dams ◽  
Program Code ◽  
Physical Behavior ◽  
Difference Methods

Monte Carlo simulation provides a probabilistic method to evaluate the physical behavior of earth dam. Therefore, the behavior could be got in a more realistic manner. Based on the theory, an innovative software program code is developed by combining the Monte Carlo and finite difference methods to predict the performance of earth dams after impounding. In order to assess the efficiency of the method, the case study of earth dam, located at Southeast of China, has been studied in detail. The performance of this dam is predicted and compared with the field monitoring by using the monitoring data. The results shows the robustness of the proposed method.

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