Persistence of the Decline in the Diagnosis of Schizophrenia Among First Admissions to Scottish Hospitals from 1969 to 1988

1993 ◽  
Vol 163 (5) ◽  
pp. 620-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Geddes ◽  
Roger J. Black ◽  
Lawrence J. Whalley ◽  
John M. Eagles

Age-standardised rates were calculated for first admissions to hospital in Scotland with ICD-9 diagnoses of schizophrenia, affective psychoses, paranoid psychoses, reactive psychoses and depressive neuroses (ICD-9 295, 296, 297, 298 and 300.4) for the period 1969–88. First-admission rates for schizophrenia declined by an average of 3.3% per year in males and 4.4% per year in females over the period. The first-admission rate in males in 1988 was 8.4/100 000 (57% of 1969 rate) and in females was 4.8/100 000 (43% of 1969 rate). Rates for depressive neuroses, affective psychoses, reactive psychoses and combined psychoses also fell. Rates for mania rose, as did those for paranoid states in males. The decrease in first-admission rates is likely to reflect a true decrease in the incidence of schizophrenia over the period. The decline was unlikely to be accounted for by diagnostic change because there was no reciprocal increase in any other diagnosis sufficient to account for the change, and the rates for combined psychoses also decreased. There was evidence that rates for schizophrenia declined to a greater extent in younger age groups, especially in females. This could imply the presence of a birth cohort effect.

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 963-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noriyoshi Takei ◽  
Glyn Lewis ◽  
Pak C. Sham ◽  
Robin M. Murray

SynopsisStudies examining a possible decline in the incidence of schizophrenia over the last two to three decades have paid little attention to the possible role of birth cohort effects. We collected data on a Scottish national sample of all schizophrenic patients, admitted for the first time between 1966 and 1990 (N = 11348; male = 6301). In an Age–Period–Cohort analysis, a full model, incorporating three factors, had a substantially better fit to the data than other models (especially, an Age–Period model), providing clear evidence of the presence of a cohort effect. After adjustment for the effects of age and period, there was a 55% reduction in the rate of schizophrenia in men and a 39% fall in the number of women over the 50-year birth period from 1923 to 1973. The marked decline in the first admission rates observed in Scotland cannot, however, be attributed entirely to this cohort effect. Rather, a greater proportion of the declining first admission rates (88%) is ascribed to the period effect (i.e. artefactual or causally related cross-sectional effects). Nevertheless, the fact that a birth-cohort effect accounts for part of the declining incidence, suggests that causal environmental factors operating early in life have been diminishing in intensity.


2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/CPJ.0000000000001115
Author(s):  
Bente Johnsen ◽  
Bjørn Heine Strand ◽  
Ieva Martinaityte ◽  
Ellisiv B. Mathiesen ◽  
Henrik Schirmer

AbstractObjective:Physical capacity and cardiovascular risk profiles seem to be improving in the population. Cognition have been improving due to a birth cohort effect, but evidence is conflicting on whether this improvement remains in the latest decades, and what is causing the changes in our population over 60 years old. We aimed to investigate birth cohort differences in cognition.Method:The study comprised 9514 participants from the Tromsø study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort study. Participants were in the ages 60–87 years, born between 1914 and 1956. They did four cognitive tests in three waves during 2001-2016. Linear regression was applied, and adjusted for age, education, blood pressure, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, stroke, heart attack, depression, diabetes, physical activity, alcohol use, BMI and height.Results:Cognitive test scores were better in later-born birth cohorts for all age groups, and in both sexes, compared with earlier born cohorts. Increased education, physical activity, alcohol intake, decreasing smoking prevalence and increasing height was associated with one third of this improvement across birth cohorts in women and one half of the improvement in men.Conclusion:Cognitive results were better in more recent born birth cohorts compared with earlier born, assessed at the same age. The improvement was present in all cognitive domains, suggesting an overall improvement in cognitive performance. The 80-year-olds assessed in 2015-16 performed like 60-year-olds assessed in 2001. The improved scores were associated with increased education level, increase in modest drinking frequency, increased physical activity and for men, smoking cessation and increased height.


2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 139-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J Marrie ◽  
Jane Q Huang

Patients aged 17 years and older who presented to seven emergency departments in Edmonton, Alberta over a two-year period with community-acquired pneumonia (n=8144) were studied. The admission rates were 271/100,00 and 296/100,000 persons for year 1 and year 2 of the study, respectively. The admission rate increased with increasing age, peaking at 4639/100,000/year for those 90 years of age and older. In contrast, the percentage of patients who were admitted to an intensive care unit was highest for those in the younger age groups between 17 and 59 years of age. From 59 years of age and older, there was a progressive decline in the percentage of patients admitted to an intensive care unit, with approximately 1% of those in the 90 years and older age group admitted. A pronounced seasonal effect on the number of patients presenting to emergency department was also noted. During the winter months, there was up to a 50% increase in the number of cases compared with the summer months.


2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bauer ◽  
T. Glenn ◽  
M. Alda ◽  
O.A. Andreassen ◽  
E. Angelopoulos ◽  
...  

AbstractPurpose:Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database.Methods:The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared.Results:There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups.Conclusion:These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.


Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J Brandt ◽  
Rebecca Myerson ◽  
Marcelo Coca Perraillon ◽  
Tamar Polonsky

Introduction: Numerous bans on the use of trans fatty acids (TF)s in eateries are in effect across the United States. No studies have examined cardiovascular event rates after the bans were enacted. Hypothesis: The July 1, 2007 ban on TFs in restaurants and food trucks in New York City (NYC) was associated with an accelerated decline in MI and stroke. Methods: We used the 2002-2013 New York Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) data to calculate hospital admission rates for incident of MI and stroke in NYC residents (using county of residence). Diagnosis was established using primary discharge ICD-9-CM codes 410.00-410.99 for MI and 430.00-438.99 for stroke. Rates were calculated using Census 2000 and 2010 data and intercensal estimates. Incidence rates of MI and stroke declined between 2002 and 2007. To analyze whether there was additional decline from these prior trends after implementation of the NYC TF ban, we used negative binomial regression to model event trends and compare this to actual trends. We also used publicly available data from the 2004 NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NYC HANES) to investigate restaurant usage per week among NYC residents. This was reported as never, less than weekly (we estimated as 0.5 uses per week), or 1 to 25 uses per week. All analyses were stratified by decade of age. Results: After 2007, younger age groups (25-34 and 35-44) experienced an additional decline in stroke (see table), but not MI, that was greater than would have been expected based on temporal trends. Younger age groups also reported higher mean restaurant use in NYC HANES. Conclusions: Stroke rates in NYC among younger adults declined faster than would have been expected after the 2007 TF ban. Additionally, younger age groups were also those that had highest restaurant usage. Further study to compare event trends in NYC counties to other New York counties is warranted to investigate if this trend is related to other secular trends.


2008 ◽  
Vol 94 (6) ◽  
pp. 787-792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Gorini ◽  
Lucia Giovannetti ◽  
Giovanna Masala ◽  
Elisabetta Chellini ◽  
Andrea Martini ◽  
...  

Aims, Background, and Methods In Tuscany, Italy, gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing since 1950, although with relevant geographical variability across the region. In Eastern Tuscan areas close to the mountains (high risk areas), gastric cancer mortality has been and is still significantly higher than that recorded in Western coastal areas and in the city of Florence (low risk areas). High-risk areas also showed higher Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence. Aim of this paper is to study gastric cancer mortality trends in high and low-risk areas, during the period 1971–2004, using age-period-cohort models. Results In high-risk areas, gastric cancer mortality rates declined from 61.4 per 100,000 in 1971–74 to 19.8 in 2000–2004 and in low-risk areas from 34.9 to 9.8. Mortality decline in high-risk areas was mainly attributable to a birth cohort effect, whereas in low-risk areas it was due either to a birth cohort effect or a period effect. In low- and high-risk areas, birth-cohort risks of dying decreased over subsequent generations, except for the birth cohorts born around the second world war. Conclusions Gastric cancer mortality in areas with higher H. pylori seroprevalence in Tuscany (high-risk areas) showed a predominant decline by birth cohort, in particular for younger generations, possibly due to the decrease of the infection for improvement of living conditions.


2000 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. A1359
Author(s):  
Danielle L. Morris ◽  
David A. Leon ◽  
James Kyle ◽  
Scott M. Montgomery ◽  
Roy E. Pounder ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. CIN.S6770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tengiz Mdzinarishvili ◽  
Michael X. Gleason ◽  
Leo Kinarsky ◽  
Simon Sherman

In the frame of the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model, a novel two-step procedure for estimating age-period-cohort (APC) effects on the hazard function of death from cancer was developed. In the first step, the procedure estimates the influence of joint APC effects on the hazard function, using Cox PH regression procedures from a standard software package. In the second step, the coefficients for age at diagnosis, time period and birth cohort effects are estimated. To solve the identifiability problem that arises in estimating these coefficients, an assumption that neighboring birth cohorts almost equally affect the hazard function was utilized. Using an anchoring technique, simple procedures for obtaining estimates of interrelated age at diagnosis, time period and birth cohort effect coefficients were developed. As a proof-of-concept these procedures were used to analyze survival data, collected in the SEER database, on white men and women diagnosed with LC in 1975–1999 and the age at diagnosis, time period and birth cohort effect coefficients were estimated. The PH assumption was evaluated by a graphical approach using log-log plots. Analysis of trends of these coefficients suggests that the hazard of death from LC for a given time from cancer diagnosis: (i) decreases between 1975 and 1999; (ii) increases with increasing the age at diagnosis; and (iii) depends upon birth cohort effects. The proposed computing procedure can be used for estimating joint APC effects, as well as interrelated age at diagnosis, time period and birth cohort effects in survival analysis of different types of cancer.


1985 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Eagles ◽  
Lawrence J. Whalley

SummaryAnnual age-standardised first admission rates from 1969–78 for Scottish mental hospitals were calculated for schizophrenia, paranoid states, reactive psychoses, all affective psychoses, mania, and depressive neuroses. Significant decreases were found in the diagnosis of schizophrenia (P <0.001) and, to a lesser extent, affective psychoses (P <0.01) and depressive neuroses (P <0.02). The incidence of paranoid states, reactive psychoses, and mania did not change significantly.Several factors possibly contributing to the decline in diagnoses of schizophrenia are discussed, but it is concluded that the figures probably reflect a genuine fall in incidence. The decline in the categories of affective disorder is likely to reflect trends towards increasing provision of community-based care.


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