The Pied Piper of Crime in America: An Analysis of the Presidents’ and Public’s Agenda on Crime

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard M. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Impact

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on crime over the public’s concern for crime being “the most important problem facing the nation.” It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of crime in the their State of the Union Addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with crime. Utilizing a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents’ State of the Union addresses on the Gallup Poll’s Most Important Problem series from 1946 to 1996, the analysis demonstrates that presidential mention of crime seems to elicit a public response, thus influencing public opinion of crime with a decay effect of approximately 1 year.

When the President Speaks…

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard M. Oliver ◽  
Joshua Hill ◽  
Nancy E. Marion
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Drug Use ◽  
Illicit Drugs ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Impact

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on the public’s concern regarding drug use as “the most important problem (MIP) facing the nation.” It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of drugs in their state of the union (SOTU) addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with drug use. Using a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents’SOTU speeches regressed on the Gallup Poll’s MIP series from 1946 to 2010, the findings suggest that presidential mentions of drugs in the SOTU addresses influence public concern for illicit drugs in America.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

scholarly journals The Ancient Walls of Damascus and the Siege of Mouaddamiyya: A Historical and Spatial Analysis of Bounded Place and Cultural Identity

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nour Halabi
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vast Area

Throughout the Syrian crisis, the presence of material and symbolic boundaries to culture became a particularly salient element of the continuously unfolding political turmoil. As one terrorist group, Daesh, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, seeks to unite the vast area of the Middle East under the political, religious, and cultural administration of a “Greater State of Syria,” or “al-Sham,” this article revisits the historical spatial organization of Damascus and the construction of city boundaries and walls as factors that contributed to the cultivation of spatially grounded cleavages within Syrian and Damascene identity. In the latter section of this article, I reflect on the impact of these cleavages on the Syrian crisis by focusing on the public response to the siege of the Mouaddamiyya neighborhood.

scholarly journals Regional disparities in information-seeking response to the COVID-19 pandemic in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Wang ◽  
Hong Xiao ◽  
Leesa Lin ◽  
Kun Tang ◽  
Joseph Unger
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Search Index ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The emergence of the COVID-19 virus and the subsequent official announcement of human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 alarmed the public and initiated the uptake of preventive measures. We conducted interrupted time-series analyses using Baidu Search Index from Jan 1, 2017 to Mar 15, 2021 to investigate how information seeking changed over time and how changes in information seeking varied across regions in China. Our findings show that changes in the patterns of search interest in COVID-19 in each province of China occurred in a synchronous fashion during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent local outbreaks, irrespective of the location and severity of each outbreak. However, inequalities in the magnitude of public response to and awareness of COVID-19 were evident, with lower-levels of information seeking regarding COVID-19 in less developed areas compared with developed areas.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

scholarly journals Modeling Public Opinion Reversal Process with the Considerations of External Intervention Information and Individual Internal Characteristics

Healthcare ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tinggui Chen ◽  
Yulong Wang ◽  
Jianjun Yang ◽  
Guodong Cong
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
External Information ◽  
Media Technology ◽  
The Public ◽  
Reversal Process ◽  
Information Intensity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
External Intervention

With the rapid development of “we media” technology, external information about the same sudden hot social event is often involved repetitiously, leading to frequent public opinion reversal. However, the phenomenon of public opinion reversal process usually has a long-lasting duration and spreads wide, making the event itself attract the widespread attention of ordinary people. Focusing on the public opinion reversal process of sudden social hot topic (a popular and widely discussed issue), this paper firstly identifies the internal and external factors that affect the reversal, namely individual internal characteristics and external intervention information. Secondly, information intensity and the amount of information perceived by individuals are introduced to describe the impact of external intervention information on the public opinion reversal. Thirdly, the parameters of individual attention and conservation are used to describe the process of individual’s selection of external information, so as to reveal the influence of the internal characteristics on public opinion reversal, and then build a public opinion reversal model. Fourthly, the effects of information intensity and individual attention, as well as individual conservation on the process of public opinion reversal are analyzed by simulation experiment. Simulation results show that: (1) the intensity of external intervention information affects the direction and degree of public opinion reversal; (2) when individual conservation is strong or individual attention is weak, even if external intervention information is strong, there will still be no obvious reversal of public opinion. Subsequently, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by a real case. Finally, some recommendations and policy implications are also given.

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