Time Series Regression Analysis on the Impact of Natural Disasters to Commercial Activitie

1991 ◽  
Vol 26 (0) ◽  
pp. 205-210
Author(s):  
Hideki Kaji ◽  
Seiji Akagi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
The Impact

The Pied Piper of Crime in America: An Analysis of the Presidents’ and Public’s Agenda on Crime

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard M. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Impact

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on crime over the public’s concern for crime being “the most important problem facing the nation.” It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of crime in the their State of the Union Addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with crime. Utilizing a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents’ State of the Union addresses on the Gallup Poll’s Most Important Problem series from 1946 to 1996, the analysis demonstrates that presidential mention of crime seems to elicit a public response, thus influencing public opinion of crime with a decay effect of approximately 1 year.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

The effects of the lower ignition propensity cigarettes standard in Estonia: time-series analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Indrek Saar
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Absolute Level ◽  
Counterfactual Models ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ignition Propensity

BackgroundIn 2011, the lower ignition propensity (LIP) standard for cigarettes was implemented in the European Union. Evidence about the impact of that safety measure is scarce.ObjectiveThe aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the LIP standard on fire safety in Estonia.MethodsThe absolute level of smoking-related fire incidents and related deaths was modelled using dynamic time-series regression analysis. The data about house fire incidents for the 2007–2013 period were obtained from the Estonian Rescue Board.ResultsImplementation of the LIP standard has reduced the monthly level of smoking-related fires by 6.2 (p<0.01, SE=1.95) incidents and by 26% (p<0.01, SE=9%) when estimated on the log scale. Slightly weaker evidence was found about the fatality reduction effects of the LIP regulation. All results were confirmed through counterfactual models for non-smoking-related fire incidents and deaths.ConclusionsThis paper indicates that implementation of the LIP cigarettes standard has improved fire safety in Estonia.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalizations in Louisiana Parishes’ Elderly before, during and after Hurricane Katrina

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ninon Becquart ◽  
Elena Naumova ◽  
Gitanjali Singh ◽  
Kenneth Chui
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Underserved Populations ◽  
Inadequate Response ◽  
Black And White ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
The Impact

The research on how health and health care disparities impact response to and recovery from a disaster, especially among diverse and underserved populations is in great need for a thorough evaluation. The time series analysis utilizing most complete national databases of medical records is an indispensable tool in assessing the destruction and health toll brought about by natural disasters. In this study, we demonstrated such an application by evaluating the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 on cardiovascular disease (CVD), a primary cause of mortality among older adults that can be aggravated by natural disasters. We compared CVD hospitalizations before, during and after Katrina between white and black residents of three most populated parishes in Louisiana: Orleans and Jefferson, which were severely affected by the landfall and subsequent floods, and East Baton Rouge, which hosted many of the evacuees. We abstracted 383,552 CVD hospitalization records for Louisiana’s patients aged 65+ in 2005–2006 from the database maintained by the Center of Medicare & Medicaid Services. Daily time series of CVD-related hospitalization rates at each study parish were compiled, and the changes were characterized using segmented regression. In Orleans Parish, directly affected by the hurricane, hospitalization rates peaked on the 6th day after landfall with an increase (mean ± SD) from 7.25 ± 2.4 to 18.5 ± 17.3 cases/day per 10,000 adults aged 65+ (p < 0.001) and returned to pre-landfall level after ~2 months. Disparities in CVD rates between black and white older adults were exacerbated during and following landfall. In Orleans Parish, a week after landfall, the CVD rates increased to 26.3 ± 23.7 and 16.6 ± 11.7 cases/day per 10,000 people (p < 0.001) for black and white patients, respectively. The abrupt increase in CVDs is likely due to psychosocial and post-traumatic stress caused by the disaster and inadequate response. Inequities in resource allocation and access have to be addressed in disaster preparation and mitigation.

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