scholarly journals Discrimination of Mesoscale Convective System Environments Using Sounding Observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1045-1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel E. Cohen ◽  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Stephen F. Corfidi ◽  
Sarah J. Corfidi
Keyword(s):  
Deep Layer ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wind Events

Abstract The prediction of the strength of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a major concern to operational meteorologists and the public. To address this forecast problem, this study examines meteorological variables derived from sounding observations taken in the environment of quasi-linear MCSs. A set of 186 soundings that sampled the beginning and mature stages of the MCSs are categorized by their production of severe surface winds into weak, severe, and derecho-producing MCSs. Differences in the variables among these three MCS categories are identified and discussed. Mean low- to upper-level wind speeds and deep-layer vertical wind shear, especially the component perpendicular to the convective line, are excellent discriminators among all three categories. Low-level inflow relative to the system is found to be an excellent discriminator, largely because of the strong relationship of system severity to system speed. Examination of the mean wind and shear vectors relative to MCS motion suggests that cell propagation along the direction of cell advection is a trait that separates severe, long-lived MCSs from the slower-moving, nonsevere variety and that this is favored when both the deep-layer shear vector and the mean deep-layer wind are large and nearly parallel. Midlevel environmental lapse rates are found to be very good discriminators among all three MCS categories, while vertical differences in equivalent potential temperature and CAPE only discriminate well between weak and severe/derecho MCS environments. Knowledge of these variables and their distribution among the different categories of MCS intensity can be used to improve forecasts and convective watches for organized convective wind events.

Convection-Permitting Simulations of the Environment Supporting Widespread Turbulence within the Upper-Level Outflow of a Mesoscale Convective System

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 1972-1990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley B. Trier ◽  
Robert D. Sharman
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Northern Edge ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Widespread moderate turbulence was recorded on three specially equipped commercial airline flights over northern Kansas near the northern edge of the extensive cirrus anvil of a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 17 June 2005. A noteworthy aspect of the turbulence was its location several hundred kilometers from the active deep convection (i.e., large reflectivity) regions of the MCS. Herein, the MCS life cycle and the turbulence environment in its upper-level outflow are studied using Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses and cloud-permitting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF). It is demonstrated that strong vertical shear beneath the MCS outflow jet is critical to providing an environment that could support dynamic (e.g., shearing type) instabilities conducive to turbulence. Comparison of a control simulation to one in which the temperature tendency due to latent heating was eliminated indicates that strong vertical shear and corresponding reductions in the local Richardson number (Ri) to ∼0.25 at the northern edge of the anvil were almost entirely a consequence of the MCS-induced westerly outflow jet. The large vertical shear is found to decrease Ri both directly, and by contributing to reductions in static stability near the northern anvil edge through differential advection of (equivalent) potential temperature gradients, which are in turn influenced by adiabatic cooling associated with the mesoscale updraft located upstream within the anvil. On the south side of the MCS, the vertical shear associated with easterly outflow was significantly offset by environmental westerly shear, which resulted in larger Ri and less widespread model turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) than at the northern anvil edge.

scholarly journals Diagnosing Convective Dependencies on Near-Storm Environments Using Ensemble Sensitivity Analyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Kerr ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Xuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Storm Evolution

AbstractConvection intensity and longevity is highly dependent on the surrounding environment. Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA), which quantitatively and qualitatively interprets impacts of initial conditions on forecasts, is applied to very short-term (1–2 h) convective-scale forecasts for three cases during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) in 2013. The ESA technique reveals several dependencies of individual convective storm evolution on their nearby environments. The three MPEX cases are simulated using a previously verified 36-member convection-allowing model (Δx = 3 km) ensemble created via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Radar and other conventional observations are assimilated using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. The three cases include a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and both nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Of the many ESAs applied in this study, one of the most notable is the positive sensitivity of supercell updraft helicity to increases in both storm inflow region deep and shallow vertical wind shear. This result suggests that larger values of vertical wind shear within the storm inflow yield higher values of storm updraft helicity. Results further show that the supercell storms quickly enhance the environmental vertical wind shear within the storm inflow region. Application of ESA shows that these storm-induced perturbations then affect further storm evolution, suggesting the presence of storm–environment feedback cycles where perturbations affect future mesocyclone strength. Overall, ESA can provide insight into convection dependencies on the near-storm environment.

scholarly journals Properties of a Mesoscale Convective System in the Context of an Isentropic Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1945-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka A. Mrowiec ◽  
O. M. Pauluis ◽  
A. M. Fridlind ◽  
A. S. Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
Mass Transport ◽  
Mass Flux ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Flux Ratio ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
High Entropy ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Application of an isentropic analysis of convective motions to a simulated mesoscale convective system is presented. The approach discriminates the vertical mass transport in terms of equivalent potential temperature. The scheme separates rising air at high entropy from subsiding air at low entropy. This also filters out oscillatory motions associated with gravity waves and isolates the overturning motions associated with convection and mesoscale circulation. The mesoscale convective system is additionally partitioned into stratiform and convective regions based on the radar reflectivity field. For each of the subregions, the mass transport derived in terms of height and an isentropic invariant of the flow is analyzed. The difference between the Eulerian mass flux and the isentropic counterpart is a significant and symmetric contribution of the buoyant oscillations to the upward and downward mass fluxes. Filtering out these oscillations results in substantial reduction of the diagnosed downward-to-upward convective mass flux ratio. The analysis is also applied to graupel and snow mixing ratios and number concentrations, illustrating the relationship of the particle formation process to the updrafts.

scholarly journals The Vertical Structure of Mesoscale Convective Vortices

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 686-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Thomas J. Galarneau
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Secondary Phase ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Outflow Boundary ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract Simulations of two cases of developing mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are examined to determine the dynamics governing the origin and vertical structure of these features. Although one case evolves in strong vertical wind shear and the other evolves in modest shear, the evolutions are remarkably similar. In addition to the well-known mesoscale convergence that spins up vorticity in the midtroposphere, the generation of vorticity in the lower troposphere occurs along the convergent outflow boundary of the parent mesoscale convective system (MCS). Lateral transport of this vorticity from the convective region back beneath the midtropospheric vorticity center is important for obtaining a deep column of cyclonic vorticity. However, this behavior would be only transient without a secondary phase of vorticity growth in the lower troposphere that results from a radical change in the divergence profile favoring lower-tropospheric convergence. Following the decay of the nocturnal MCS, subsequent convection occurs in a condition of greater relative humidity through the lower troposphere and small conditional instability. Vorticity and potential vorticity are efficiently produced near the top of the boundary layer and a cyclonic circulation appears at the surface.

scholarly journals A Subtropical Oceanic Mesoscale Convective Vortex Observed during SoWMEX/TiMREX

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
pp. 2367-2385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Wei Lai ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Ben Jong-Dao Jou
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Vortex Center ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Vortex

AbstractThis study examines a subtropical oceanic mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that occurred from 1800 UTC 4 June to 1200 UTC 6 June 2008 during intensive observing period (IOP) 6 of the Southwest Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) and the Terrain-influenced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (TiMREX). A dissipating mesoscale convective system reorganized within a nearly barotropic vorticity strip, which formed as a southwesterly low-level jet developed to the south of subsiding easterly flow over the southern Taiwan Strait. A cyclonic circulation was revealed on the northern edge of the mesoscale rainband with a horizontal scale of 200 km. An inner subvortex, on a scale of 25–30 km with maximum shear vorticity of 3 × 10−3 s−1, was embedded in the stronger convection. The vortex-relative southerly flow helped create local potential instability favorable for downshear convection enhancement. Strong low-level convergence suggests that stretching occurred within the MCV. Higher θe air, associated with significant potential and conditional instability, and high reflectivity signatures near the vortex center suggest that deep moist convection was responsible for the vortex stretching. Dry rear inflow penetrated into the MCV and suppressed convection in the upshear direction. A mesolow was also roughly observed within the larger vortex. The presence of intense vertical wind shear in the higher troposphere limited the vortex vertical extent to about 6 km.

scholarly journals Estimating the Maximum Vertical Velocity at the Leading Edge of a Density Current

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (11) ◽  
pp. 3683-3700
Author(s):  
Dylan W. Reif ◽  
Howard B. Bluestein ◽  
Tammy M. Weckwerth ◽  
Zachary B. Wienhoff ◽  
Manda B. Chasteen
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Density Current ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Density Currents ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution

AbstractThe maximum upward vertical velocity at the leading edge of a density current is commonly <10 m s−1. Studies of the vertical velocity, however, are relatively few, in part owing to the dearth of high-spatiotemporal-resolution observations. During the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field project, a mobile Doppler lidar measured a maximum vertical velocity of 13 m s−1 at the leading edge of a density current created by a mesoscale convective system during the night of 15 July 2015. Two other vertically pointing instruments recorded 8 m s−1 vertical velocities at the leading edge of the density current on the same night. This study describes the structure of the density current and attempts to estimate the maximum vertical velocity at their leading edges using the following properties: the density current depth, the slope of its head, and its perturbation potential temperature. The method is then be applied to estimate the maximum vertical velocity at the leading edge of density currents using idealized numerical simulations conducted in neutral and stable atmospheres with resting base states and in neutral and stable atmospheres with vertical wind shear. After testing this method on idealized simulations, this method is then used to estimate the vertical velocity at the leading edge of density currents documented in several previous studies. It was found that the maximum vertical velocity can be estimated to within 10%–15% of the observed or simulated maximum vertical velocity and indirectly accounts for parameters including environmental wind shear and static stability.

scholarly journals A mesoscale convective system trapped along the Spanish Mediterranean Coast

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 153-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Sánchez-Laulhé
Keyword(s):  
Convective Instability ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Storm ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract. This paper describes the evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed over the Alboran Sea on 7 February 2005, using surface, upper-air stations, radar and satellite observations, and also data from an operational numerical model. The system developed during the night as a small convective storm line in an environment with slight convective instability, low precipitable water and strong low-level vertical wind shear near coast. The linear MCS moved northwards reaching the Spanish coast. Then it remained trapped along the coast for more than twelve hours, following the coast more than five hundred kilometres. The MCS here described had a fundamental orographic character due to: (1) the generation of a low-level storm inflow parallel to the coast, formed by blocking of the onshore flow by coastal mountains and (2) the orientation of both the mesoscale ascent from the sea towards the coastal mountains and the midlevel rear inflow from the coastal mountains to the sea. The main motivation of this work was to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms relevant to the formation of heavy rainfall episodes occurring at Spanish Mediterranean coast associated with this kind of stationary or slowly moving MCSs.

scholarly journals Land-Based Convection Effects on Formation of Tropical Cyclone Mekkhala (2008)

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1315-1337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myung-Sook Park ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Dongmin Kim ◽  
Michael M. Bell ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Vortex Center ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Mesoscale System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Westerly Flow ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Vortex

Abstract The effects of land-based convection on the formation of Tropical Storm Mekkhala (2008) off the west coast of the Philippines are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Five simulations with Thompson microphysics are utilized to select the control-land experiment that reasonably replicates the observed sea level pressure evolution. To demonstrate the contribution of the land-based convection, sensitivity experiments are performed by changing the land of the northern Philippines to water, and all five of these no-land experiments fail to develop Mekkhala. The Mekkhala tropical depression develops when an intense, well-organized land-based mesoscale convective system moves offshore from Luzon and interacts with an oceanic mesoscale system embedded in a strong monsoon westerly flow. Because of this interaction, a midtropospheric mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) organizes offshore from Luzon, where monsoon convection continues to contribute to low-level vorticity enhancement below the midlevel vortex center. In the no-land experiments, widespread oceanic convection induces a weaker midlevel vortex farther south in a strong vertical wind shear zone and subsequently farther east in a weaker monsoon vortex region. Thus, the monsoon convection–induced low-level vorticity remained separate from the midtropospheric MCV, which finally resulted in a failure of the low-level spinup. This study suggests that land-based convection can play an advantageous role in TC formation by influencing the intensity and the placement of the incipient midtropospheric MCV to be more favorable for TC low-level circulation development.

scholarly journals Multiscale Processes Enabling the Longevity and Daytime Persistence of a Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 733-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manda B. Chasteen ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
David B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Unstable Environment

Abstract Nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently develop over the Great Plains in the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which contributes to convective maintenance by providing a source of instability, convergence, and low-level vertical wind shear. Although these nocturnal MCSs often dissipate during the morning, many persist into the following afternoon despite the cessation of the LLJ with the onset of solar heating. The environmental factors enabling the postsunrise persistence of nocturnal convection are currently not well understood. A thorough investigation into the processes supporting the longevity and daytime persistence of an MCS was conducted using routine observations, RAP analyses, and a WRF-ARW simulation. Elevated nocturnal convection developed in response to enhanced frontogenesis, which quickly grew upscale into a severe quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). The western portion of this QLCS reorganized into a bow echo with a pronounced cold pool and ultimately an organized leading-line, trailing-stratiform MCS as it moved into an increasingly unstable environment. Differential advection resulting from the interaction of the nocturnal LLJ with the topography of west Texas established considerable heterogeneity in moisture, CAPE, and CIN, which influenced the structure and evolution of the MCS. An inland-advected moisture plume significantly increased near-surface CAPE during the nighttime over central Texas, while the environment over southeastern Texas abruptly destabilized following the commencement of surface heating and downward moisture transport. The unique topography of the southern plains and the close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provided an environment conducive to the postsunrise persistence of the organized MCS.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulation of Radial Cloud Bands within the Upper-Level Outflow of an Observed Mesoscale Convective System

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2990-2999 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Trier ◽  
R. D. Sharman ◽  
R. G. Fovell ◽  
R. G. Frehlich
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Band Formation ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Radial Outflow

Abstract Turbulence affecting aircraft is frequently reported within bands of cirrus anvil cloud extending radially outward from upstream deep convection in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). A high-resolution convection permitting model is used to simulate bands of this type observed on 17 June 2005. The timing, location, and orientation of these simulated bands are similar to those in satellite imagery for this case. The 10–20-km horizontal spacing between the bands is also similar to typical spacing found in a recent satellite-based climatology of MCS-induced radial outflow bands. The simulated bands result from shallow convection in the near-neutral to weakly unstable MCS outer anvil. The weak stratification of the anvil, the ratio of band horizontal wavelength to the depth of the near-neutral anvil layer (5:1 to 10:1), and band orientation approximately parallel to the vertical shear within the same layer are similar to corresponding aspects of horizontal convective rolls in the atmospheric boundary layer, which result from thermal instability. The vertical shear in the MCS outflow is important not only in influencing the orientation of the radial bands but also for its role, through differential temperature advection, in helping to thermodynamically destabilize the environment in which they originate. High-frequency gravity waves emanating from the parent deep convection are trapped in a layer of strong static stability and vertical wind shear beneath the near-neutral anvil and, consistent with satellite studies, are oriented approximately normal to the developing radial bands. The wave-generated vertical displacements near the anvil base may aid band formation in the layer above.

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