Prediction of the Diurnal Change Using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part I: Precipitation

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
pp. 3613-3632 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. Krishnamurti ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan ◽  
A. Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Diurnal Change ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Modeling the geographical distribution of the phase and amplitude of the diurnal change is a challenging problem. This paper addresses the issues of modeling the diurnal mode of precipitation over the Tropics. Largely an early morning precipitation maximum over the oceans and an afternoon rainfall maximum over land areas describe the first-order diurnal variability. However, large variability in phase and amplitude prevails even within the land and oceanic areas. This paper addresses the importance of a multimodel superensemble for much improved prediction of the diurnal mode as compared to what is possible from individual models. To begin this exercise, the skills of the member models, the ensemble mean of the member models, a unified cloud model, and the superensemble for the prediction of total rain as well as its day versus night distribution were examined. Here it is shown that the distributions of total rain over the earth (tropical belt) and over certain geographical regions are predicted reasonably well (RMSE less than 18%) from the construction of a multimodel superensemble. This dataset is well suited for addressing the diurnal change. The large errors in phase of the diurnal modes in individual models usually stem from numerous physical processes such as the cloud radiation, shallow and deep cumulus convection, and the physics of the planetary boundary layer. The multimodel superensemble is designed to reduce such systematic errors and provide meaningful forecasts. That application for the diurnal mode appears very promising. This paper examines some of the regions such as the Tibetan Plateau, the eastern foothills of the Himalayas, and the Amazon region of South America that are traditionally difficult for modeling the diurnal change. In nearly all of these regions, errors in phase and amplitude of the diurnal mode of precipitation increase with the increased length of forecasts. Model forecast errors on the order of 6–12 h for phase and 50% for the amplitude are often seen from the member models. The multimodel superensemble reduces these errors and provides a close match (RMSE < 6 h) to the observed phase. The percent of daily rain and their phases obtained from the multimodel superensemble at 3-hourly intervals for different regions of the Tropics showed a closer match (pattern correlation about 0.4) with the satellite estimates. This is another area where the individual member models conveyed a much lower skill.

Cloud Properties and Their Seasonal and Diurnal Variability from TOVS Path-B

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5531-5553 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Stubenrauch ◽  
A. Chédin ◽  
G. Rädel ◽  
N. A. Scott ◽  
S. Serrar
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Infrared Observation ◽  
Relevant Variable ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Early Afternoon ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

scholarly journals Surface gas pollutants in Lhasa, a highland city of Tibet – current levels and pollution implications

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 10721-10730 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Ran ◽  
W. L. Lin ◽  
Y. Z. Deji ◽  
B. La ◽  
P. M. Tsering ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Urban Site ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Low Wind Speed

Abstract. Through several years of development, the city of Lhasa has become one of the most populated and urbanized areas on the highest plateau in the world. In the process of urbanization, current and potential air quality issues have been gradually concerned. To investigate the current status of air pollution in Lhasa, various gas pollutants including NOx, CO, SO2, and O3, were continuously measured from June 2012 to May 2013 at an urban site (29.40° N, 91.08° E, 3650 m a.s.l.). The seasonal variations of primary gas pollutants exhibited a peak from November to January with a large variability. High mixing ratios of primary trace gases almost exclusively occurred under low wind speed and showed no distinct dependence on wind direction, implying local urban emissions to be predominant. A comparison of NO2, CO, and SO2 mixing ratios in summer between 1998 and 2012 indicated a significant increase in emissions of these gas pollutants and a change in their intercorrelations, as a result of a substantial growth in the demand of energy consumption using fossil fuels instead of previously widely used biomass. The pronounced diurnal double peaks of primary trace gases in all seasons suggested automobile exhaust to be a major emission source in Lhasa. The secondary gas pollutant O3 displayed an average diurnal cycle of a shallow flat peak for about 4–5 h in the afternoon and a minimum in the early morning. Nighttime O3 was sometimes completely consumed by the high level of NOx. Seasonally, the variations of O3 mixing ratios displayed a low valley in winter and a peak in spring. In autumn and winter, transport largely contributed to the observed O3 mixing ratios, given its dependence on wind speed and wind direction, while in spring and summer photochemistry played an important role. A more efficient buildup of O3 mixing ratios in the morning and a higher peak in the afternoon was found in summer 2012 than in 1998. An enhancement in O3 mixing ratios would be expected in the future and more attention should be given to O3 photochemistry in response to increasing precursor emissions in this area.

scholarly journals Diurnal variability, photochemical production and loss processes of hydrogen peroxide in the boundary layer over Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (18) ◽  
pp. 11953-11968
Author(s):  
Horst Fischer ◽  
Raoul Axinte ◽  
Heiko Bozem ◽  
John N. Crowley ◽  
Cheryl Ernest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Hydrogen Peroxide ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Residual Layer ◽  
Loss Mechanism ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Diel Cycles ◽  
Photochemical Production

Abstract. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) plays a significant role in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. It is an efficient oxidant in the liquid phase and serves as a temporary reservoir for the hydroxyl radical (OH), the most important oxidizing agent in the gas phase. Due to its high solubility, removal of H2O2 due to wet and dry deposition is efficient, being a sink of HOx (OH+HO2) radicals. In the continental boundary layer, the H2O2 budget is controlled by photochemistry, transport and deposition processes. Here we use in situ observations of H2O2 and account for chemical source and removal mechanisms to study the interplay between these processes. The data were obtained during five ground-based field campaigns across Europe from 2008 to 2014 and bring together observations in a boreal forest, two mountainous sites in Germany, and coastal sites in Spain and Cyprus. Most campaigns took place in the summer, while the measurements in the south-west of Spain took place in early winter. Diel variations in H2O2 are strongly site-dependent and indicate a significant altitude dependence. While boundary-layer mixing ratios of H2O2 at low-level sites show classical diel cycles with the lowest values in the early morning and maxima around local noon, diel profiles are reversed on mountainous sites due to transport from the nocturnal residual layer and the free troposphere. The concentration of hydrogen peroxide is largely governed by its main precursor, the hydroperoxy radical (HO2), and shows significant anti-correlation with nitrogen oxides (NOx) that remove HO2. A budget calculation indicates that in all campaigns, the noontime photochemical production rate through the self-reaction of HO2 radicals was much larger than photochemical loss due to reaction with OH and photolysis, and that dry deposition is the dominant loss mechanism. Estimated dry deposition velocities varied between approximately 1 and 6 cm s−1, with relatively high values observed during the day in forested regions, indicating enhanced uptake of H2O2 by vegetation. In order to reproduce the change in H2O2 mixing ratios between sunrise and midday, a variable contribution from transport (10 %–100 %) is required to balance net photochemical production and deposition loss. Transport is most likely related to entrainment from the residual layer above the nocturnal boundary layer during the growth of the boundary layer in the morning.

scholarly journals Surface ozone at Nam Co (4730 m a.s.l.) in the inland Tibetan Plateau: variation, synthesis comparison and regional representativeness

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiufeng Yin ◽  
Shichang Kang ◽  
Benjamin de Foy ◽  
Zhiyuan Cong ◽  
Jiali Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Photochemical Reactions ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Nam Co ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Northern Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. Ozone is an important pollutant and greenhouse gas, and tropospheric ozone variations are generally associated with both natural and anthropogenic processes. As one of the most pristine and inaccessible regions in the world, the Tibetan Plateau has been considered as an ideal region for studying processes of the background atmosphere. Due to the vast area of the Tibetan Plateau, sites in the southern, northern and central regions exhibit different patterns of variation in surface ozone. Here, we present long-term measurements for ~ 5 years (January 2011 to October 2015) of surface ozone mixing ratios at Nam Co Station, which is a regional background site in the inland Tibetan Plateau. An average surface ozone mixing ratio of 47.6 ± 11.6 ppb was recorded, and a large annual cycle was observed with maximum ozone mixing ratios in the spring and minimum ratios during the winter. The diurnal cycle is characterized by a minimum in the early morning and a maximum in the late afternoon. Nam Co Station represents a background region where surface ozone receives negligible local anthropogenic emissions. Surface ozone at Nam Co Station is mainly dominated by natural processes involving photochemical reactions and potential local vertical mixing. Model results indicate that the study site is affected by the surrounding areas in different seasons and that air masses from the northern Tibetan Plateau lead to increased ozone levels in the summer. In contrast to the surface ozone levels at the edges of the Tibetan Plateau, those at Nam Co Station are less affected by stratospheric intrusions and human activities which makes Nam Co Station representative of vast background areas in the central Tibetan Plateau. By comparing measurements at Nam Co Station with those from other sites in the Tibetan Plateau and beyond, we aim to expand the understanding of ozone cycles and transport processes over the Tibetan Plateau. This work may provide a reference for model simulations in the future.

scholarly journals Impact of High Temperature Stress in Rice

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 108-110
Author(s):  
E. Umarani ◽  
◽  
V. Hemalatha ◽  
A. Saritha ◽  
A. V. Ramanjaneyulu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Temperature ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Oryza Glaberrima ◽  
Rice Grain ◽  
Irreversible Damage ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Genetic Source ◽  
The Tropics

Global warming has become a big concern in the world and it has been continuously increasing in recent decades due to the greenhouse effect. The increase in temperature has been striking and it can cause irreversible damage to plant growth and development. Though rice originates from the tropics, high temperatures of more than 35 °C during the reproductive stages reduces rice production, especially when the rice plant flowers when the high temperature occurs because it causes low seed setting and low yield. It was found that rice grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 °C increase in growing-season minimum temperature. Early-morning flowering is an important criteria in rice which escapes plant from high temperatures during peak period. It was found that Oryza glaberrima, a wild species of rice, is a useful genetic source since it has a habit of early-morning flowering and high transpiration with sufficient water, both of which are convenient traits for avoiding heat stress.

scholarly journals Emission location dependent ozone depletion potentials for very short-lived halogenated species

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 16277-16305
Author(s):  
I. Pisso ◽  
P. H. Haynes ◽  
K. S. Law
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Degradation Products ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Surface Emission ◽  
Spatial And Seasonal Variation ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We present trajectory-based estimates of Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) for very short-lived halogenated source gases as a function of surface emission location. The ODPs are determined by the fraction of source gas and its degradation products which reach the stratosphere, depending primarily on tropospheric transport and chemistry, and the effect of the resulting reactive halogen in the stratosphere, which is determined by stratospheric transport and chemistry, in particular by stratospheric residence time. Reflecting the different timescales and physico-chemical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere, the estimates are based on calculation of separate ensembles of trajectories for the troposphere and stratosphere. A methodology is described by which information from the two ensembles can be combined to give the ODPs. The ODP estimates for a species with a 20 d lifetime, representing a compound like n-propyl bromide, are presented as an example. The estimated ODPs show strong geographical and season variation, particularly within the tropics. The values of the ODPs are sensitive to the inclusion of a convective parametrization in the trajectory calculations, but the relative spatial and seasonal variation is not. The results imply that ODPs are largest for emissions from South and South-East Asia during Northern Hemisphere summer and from the Western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter. Large ODPs are also estimated for emissions throughout the tropics with also non-negligible values extending into northern mid-latitudes particularly in the summer. These first estimates, which include some simplifying assumptions, show larger ODP values than previous studies, particularly over Southern Asia, suggesting that emissions of short-lived halogen source gases in certain geographical regions could have a significant impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.

scholarly journals On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry–climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 7625-7637 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Hannah Brown ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Neil R. P. Harris ◽  
John A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Large Sample Size ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Ozone Trend ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Natural Cycles

Abstract. Total column ozone values from an ensemble of UM-UKCA model simulations are examined to investigate different definitions of progress on the road to ozone recovery. The impacts of modelled internal atmospheric variability are accounted for by applying a multiple linear regression model to modelled total column ozone values, and ozone trend analysis is performed on the resulting ozone residuals. Three definitions of recovery are investigated: (i) a slowed rate of decline and the date of minimum column ozone, (ii) the identification of significant positive trends and (iii) a return to historic values. A return to past thresholds is the last state to be achieved. Minimum column ozone values, averaged from 60° S to 60° N, occur between 1990 and 1995 for each ensemble member, driven in part by the solar minimum conditions during the 1990s. When natural cycles are accounted for, identification of the year of minimum ozone in the resulting ozone residuals is uncertain, with minimum values for each ensemble member occurring at different times between 1992 and 2000. As a result of this large variability, identification of the date of minimum ozone constitutes a poor measure of ozone recovery. Trends for the 2000–2017 period are positive at most latitudes and are statistically significant in the mid-latitudes in both hemispheres when natural cycles are accounted for. This significance results largely from the large sample size of the multi-member ensemble. Significant trends cannot be identified by 2017 at the highest latitudes, due to the large interannual variability in the data, nor in the tropics, due to the small trend magnitude, although it is projected that significant trends may be identified in these regions soon thereafter. While significant positive trends in total column ozone could be identified at all latitudes by ∼ 2030, column ozone values which are lower than the 1980 annual mean can occur in the mid-latitudes until ∼ 2050, and in the tropics and high latitudes deep into the second half of the 21st century.

Diurnal variability of frontal dynamics, instability, and turbulence in a submesoscale upwelling filament

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jen-Ping Peng ◽  
Lars Umlauf ◽  
Julia Dräger-Dietel ◽  
Ryan P. North
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Shear Instability ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Surface Boundary Layer ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Frontal Dynamics ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecent high-resolution numerical simulations have shown that the diurnal variability in the atmospheric forcing strongly affects the dynamics, stability, and turbulence of submesoscale structures in the surface boundary layer (SBL). Field observations supporting the real-ocean relevance of these studies are, however, largely lacking at the moment. Here, the impact of large diurnal variations in the surface heat flux on a dense submesoscale upwelling filament in the Benguela upwelling system is investigated, based on a combination of densely-spaced turbulence microstructure observations and surface drifter data. Our data show that during nighttime and early-morning conditions, when solar radiation is still weak, frontal turbulence is generated by a mix of symmetric and shear instability. In this situation, turbulent diapycnal mixing is approximately balanced by frontal restratification associated with the cross-front secondary circulation. During daytime, when solar radiation is close to its peak value, the SBL quickly restratifies, the conditions for frontal instability are no longer fulfilled, and SBL turbulence collapses except for a thin wind-driven layer near the surface. The drifter data suggest that inertial oscillations periodically modulate the stability characteristics and energetics of the submesoscale fronts bounding the filament.

Integration of ambient noise and ERT data to investigate the structure of the Yang Jia Gou rock avalanche deposits (Sichuan - China)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Capone ◽  
Vincenzo Del Gaudio ◽  
Janusz Wasowski ◽  
Wei Hu ◽  
Nicola Venisti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Rayleigh Waves ◽  
Ambient Noise ◽  
Noise Analysis ◽  
Rock Avalanche ◽  
Landslide Dam ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Single Station

<p>On 12 May 2008, the mountainous area of Longmenshan, which separates the Tibetan Plateau from the Sichuan Basin, was hit by the 8.0 Ms Wenchuan earthquake which triggered about 200,000 landslides, some of which caused river damming with the formation of temporary lakes. Failures of the landslide dams can induce severe flooding downstream, therefore, it is important to study their structure and mechanical properties in order to evaluate their stability conditions.</p><p>The present study investigates the landslide dam deposits of a rock avalanche triggered in Yang Jia Gou, in Sichuan Province, using single-station three component recordings of ambient noise, with the aim of obtaining information about thickness and mechanical properties of the deposits from their resonance properties. Three noise measurement campaigns and two ERT surveys were conducted to support data interpretation. The data were analyzed using the traditional Nakamura’s technique, HVNR, and the innovative technique HVIP, both based on the calculation of ratios between horizontal and vertical amplitude of ground motion. Both methods revealed the presence  of resonance peaks, a major one at lower frequency, and a minor one at higher frequencies, representative of the deposit layering. HVNR showed a considerable instability in terms of amplitude of H/V, likely because this technique analyzes the entire noise wave field recorded, so to be subject to a large variability related to a variable composition of the noise field. This problem does not affect the HVIP method, which is based on the analysis of the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves, isolated from the recording.</p><p>Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves were used as targets in the inversion phase to obtain the velocity profile of the site. The subsoil model was  constrained by the data derived from the resistivity profiles. The results revealed:  different velocity layers inside the deposit; lateral variations in thickness, in accordance with the higher frequency peak, and in mechanical properties, with an increase of stiffness, probably due to a major portion of rocky blocks; an increase in thickness of the entire deposit, probably because of the irregularities of the substrate.</p><p>Further investigations are in progress through other kinds of noise analysis exploiting the synchronization of simultaneous recordings. This can provide additional constraints (to be derived from the dispersion of group velocity of Rayleigh waves) and aid resolving interpretation ambiguities.</p>

scholarly journals The Importance of Standardised Data-Collection Methods in the Improvement of Thermal Comfort Assessment Models for Developing Countries in the Tropics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 4180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Rodriguez ◽  
María Coronado ◽  
Marta D’Alessandro ◽  
Juan Medina
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Comfort Levels ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Adaptive Behaviours ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Occupant Satisfaction

Thermal comfort in the built environment is one of the most defining parameters influencing energy use, environmental quality, and occupant satisfaction. Unfortunately, there is a lack of research in this area within developing countries, which are becoming increasingly urbanised and where mechanical air conditioning demands are rising. Many of these countries are adopting thermal comfort standards such as the ASHRAE Standard 55, the EN 15251, and the ISO 7730 to regulate the use of air-conditioning; even when these standards have been widely criticised for their inadequacy within geographical regions different to the ones that they were designed for. Research suggests the need to confirm these models through further post-occupancy studies and fieldwork. Deficiencies in data collection and methodologies are thought to require particular attention to develop algorithms that can predict thermal comfort levels accurately. Comprehensive strategies considering interrelated psychological, physiological and social factors are needed. This manuscript highlights gaps of research, specifically within tropical developing countries, through the analysis of Colombia as a case study. It emphasises the importance of standardised fieldwork data and gives examples of alternative collection systems. This aims to contribute to the understanding of occupant´s adaptive behaviours and their impact on the mitigation of climate change.

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