scholarly journals High-Resolution Dual-Doppler Analyses of the 29 May 2001 Kress, Texas, Cyclic Supercell

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 3125-3148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey R. Beck ◽  
John L. Schroeder ◽  
Joshua M. Wurman
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Striking Similarity ◽  
Airborne Radar ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Synthesis Time ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Tornadic Storms ◽  
Gust Front ◽  
Observation Period

Abstract On 29 May 2001, Doppler on Wheels radars collected data on a supercell near Kress, Texas. The supercellular storm, cyclic in nature, produced multiple mesocyclones throughout its lifetime. Dual-Doppler syntheses were conducted using a grid spacing of 100 m, resulting in the highest-resolution observational analysis of a cyclic supercell to date. In addition, collection of data from ground-based radar allowed for the analysis of near-ground features irresolvable with airborne radar, providing another advantage over previous studies. The syntheses revealed a number of evolving low-level mesocyclones over the observation period of 900 s. While nontornadic during the synthesis period, the supercell exhibited evidence of strong (vertical vorticity greater than 10−2 s−1) low-level circulation with classic cyclic structure and multiple tornadoes beginning 3600 s later. A comparison between the current results, conceptual models, and previous lower-resolution analyses is presented. A striking similarity exists between the cyclic evolution of the Kress storm during the synthesis time period and other previous cyclic conceptual models. However, differences did exist between the Kress storm and previously studied tornadic storms. Analysis showed that the rear-flank downdraft provided the only surface boundary associated with low-level mesocyclogenesis. Other characteristics, including forward-flank gust front structure and the orientation of low-level horizontal vorticity, also differed. In addition, there was a general lack of surface convergence associated with the forward-flank reflectivity gradient, yet convergence associated with the forward-flank gust front increased with height. Finally, a large component of crosswise horizontal vorticity was found to exist throughout the supercell environment, within both the inflow and outflow. Incorporating these differences, an attempt was made to identify possible mechanisms responsible for the lack of tornadogenesis during the synthesis time period.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Low-Level Baroclinity and Vorticity within a Simulated Supercell

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
pp. 649-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Beck ◽  
Christopher Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Vertical Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Boundary Location ◽  
State Boundary ◽  
Development And Evolution ◽  
Gust Front

Abstract Idealized supercell modeling has provided a wealth of information regarding the evolution and dynamics within supercell thunderstorms. However, discrepancies in conceptual models exist, including uncertainty regarding the existence, placement, and forcing of low-level boundaries in these storms, as well as their importance in low-level vorticity development. This study offers analysis of the origins of low-level boundaries and vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone of a simulated supercell. Low-level boundary location shares similarities with previous modeling studies; however, the development and evolution of these boundaries differ from previous conceptual models. The rear-flank gust front develops first, whereas the formation of a boundary extending north of the mesocyclone undergoes numerous iterations caused by competing outflow and inflow before a steady-state boundary is produced. A third boundary extending northeast of the mesocyclone is produced through evaporative cooling of inflow air and develops last. Conceptual models for the simulation were created to demonstrate the evolution and structure of the low-level boundaries. Only the rear-flank gust front may be classified as a “gust front,” defined as having a strong wind shift, delineation between inflow and outflow air, and a strong pressure gradient across the boundary. Trajectory analyses show that parcels traversing the boundary north of the mesocyclone and the rear-flank gust front play a strong role in the development of vertical vorticity existing within the low-level mesocyclone. In addition, baroclinity near the rear-flank downdraft proves to be key in producing horizontal vorticity that is eventually tilted, providing a majority of the positive vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone.

Labour-use Efficiency of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank: Branch- and District-level Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 232102222110243
Author(s):  
Mohuya Deb Purkayastha ◽  
Joyeeta Deb ◽  
Ram Pratap Sinha
Keyword(s):  
Efficiency Score ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Tobit Regression ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Observation Period

The present study estimated labour-use efficiency of 48 branches of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank at its branch level, covering three districts of Barak Valley, which falls under Silchar region of the bank for the time period from 2010–2011 to 2017–2018. The study applied data envelopment analysis for estimating labour-use efficiency. In the second stage, the study applied censored Tobit regression for determining the impact of several contextual variables on efficiency. The study reveals that the mean labour-use efficiency score of the selected branches is 76% when averaged for the in-sample branches over the observation period. Results of the Tobit regression identified cluster 2 and total business of the branches as the significant factors for determining efficiency and the number of employees as a significant variable influencing inefficiency. JEL Classifications: G2, G20, G21, J3

scholarly journals Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Tornadogenesis Failure in Supercell Thunderstorms

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 581
Author(s):  
Matthew Van Den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Supercell Storms ◽  
Supercell Thunderstorms ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Tornadic Storms ◽  
Differential Reflectivity

Many nontornadic supercell storms have times when they appear to be moving toward tornadogenesis, including the development of a strong low-level vortex, but never end up producing a tornado. These tornadogenesis failure (TGF) episodes can be a substantial challenge to operational meteorologists. In this study, a sample of 32 pre-tornadic and 36 pre-TGF supercells is examined in the 30 min pre-tornadogenesis or pre-TGF period to explore the feasibility of using polarimetric radar metrics to highlight storms with larger tornadogenesis potential in the near-term. Overall the results indicate few strong distinguishers of pre-tornadic storms. Differential reflectivity (ZDR) arc size and intensity were the most promising metrics examined, with ZDR arc size potentially exhibiting large enough differences between the two storm subsets to be operationally useful. Change in the radar metrics leading up to tornadogenesis or TGF did not exhibit large differences, though most findings were consistent with hypotheses based on prior findings in the literature.

scholarly journals Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for COVID-19 Vaccines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danyu Lin ◽  
Donglin Zeng ◽  
Yu Gu ◽  
Thomas Fleming ◽  
Phillip Krause
Keyword(s):  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Piecewise Linear Function ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Vaccine Protection ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Duration Of Protection ◽  
Reliable Methods ◽  
Protective Effectiveness ◽  
Vaccine Effect ◽  
Observation Period

Decision-making about booster dosing for COVID-19 vaccine recipients hinges on reliable methods for evaluating the longevity of vaccine protection. We show that modeling of protection as a piecewise linear function of time since vaccination for the log hazard ratio of the vaccine effect provides more reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness at the end of an observation period and also more reliably detects plateaus in protective effectiveness as compared with the traditional method of estimating a constant vaccine effect over each time period. This approach will be useful for analyzing data pertaining to COVID-19 vaccines and other vaccines where rapid and reliable understanding of vaccine effectiveness over time is desired.

scholarly journals The Unconventional Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Hurricane Ophelia (2005)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naufal Razin ◽  
Michael M. Bell
Keyword(s):  
Intensity Change ◽  
Wind Maximum ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Flight Level ◽  
Intensive Observation ◽  
Observation Period ◽  
Replacement Cycle

AbstractHurricane Ophelia (2005) underwent an unconventional eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) as it was a Category 1 storm located over cold sea surface temperatures near 23°C. The ERC was analyzed using airborne radar, flight-level, and dropsonde data collected during the Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment (RAINEX) intensive observation period on 11 September 2005. Results showed that the spin-up of the secondary tangential wind maximum during the ERC can be attributed to the efficient convergence of absolute angular momentum by the mid-level inflow of Ophelia’s dominantly stratiform rainbands. This secondary tangential wind maximum strongly contributed to the azimuthal mean tangential wind field, which is conducive for increased low-level supergradient winds and corresponding outflow. The low-level supergradient forcing enhanced convergence to form a secondary eyewall. Ophelia provides a unique example of an ERC occurring in a weaker storm with predominantly stratiform rainbands, suggesting an important role of stratiform precipitation processes in the development of secondary eyewalls.

scholarly journals The Possible Role of Density Current Dynamics in the Generation of Low-Level Vertical Vorticity in Supercells

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (10) ◽  
pp. 3191-3208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam L. Houston
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Density Current ◽  
Vertical Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Indirect Connection ◽  
Strong Surface ◽  
Boundary Deformation ◽  
Gust Front

Abstract A physical mechanism based on density current dynamics is proposed to explain the generation of low-level vertical vorticity in supercells. This mechanism may serve as one explanation for the associative relationship between environmental low-level vertical shear and the occurrence of significant tornadoes. The mechanism proposed herein represents an indirect connection to the generation of strong surface-based rotation: the barotropic horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical shear acts to amplify existing rotation but does not directly contribute to surface rotation. The proposed mechanism couples the likelihood of a tornado to the vertical shear through the pattern of vertical motion induced through interaction of a deformed gust front and the environmental vertical shear. Results from the experiments conducted to test the veracity of the proposed mechanism illustrate that inferred patterns of tilting and vortex line orientation are consistent with the generation of positive vertical vorticity near the axis of the existing mesocyclone and negative vertical vorticity along the rear-flank gust front. Moreover, inferred tilting is found to scale with the magnitude of the environmental vertical shear, consistent with the climatologies that motivate this work. Experiments also reveal that the proposed mechanism is capable of relating boundary deformation, mesocyclone strength, and hodograph shape to the ultimate likelihood of tornadogenesis.

scholarly journals A Background Investigation of Tornado Activity across the Southern Cumberland Plateau Terrain System of Northeastern Alabama

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (12) ◽  
pp. 4261-4278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony W. Lyza ◽  
Kevin R. Knupp
Keyword(s):  
Wind Profile ◽  
Cumberland Plateau ◽  
Activity Maximum ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Terrain Effects ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Tennessee Valley ◽  
Profile Changes ◽  
Tornadic Storms

Abstract The effects of terrain on tornadoes are poorly understood. Efforts to understand terrain effects on tornadoes have been limited in scope, typically examining a small number of cases with limited observations or idealized numerical simulations. This study evaluates an apparent tornado activity maximum across the Sand Mountain and Lookout Mountain plateaus of northeastern Alabama. These plateaus, separated by the narrow Wills Valley, span ~5000 km2 and were impacted by 79 tornadoes from 1992 to 2016. This area represents a relative regional statistical maximum in tornadogenesis, with a particular tendency for tornadogenesis on the northwestern side of Sand Mountain. This exploratory paper investigates storm behavior and possible physical explanations for this density of tornadogenesis events and tornadoes. Long-term surface observation datasets indicate that surface winds tend to be stronger and more backed atop Sand Mountain than over the adjacent Tennessee Valley, potentially indicative of changes in the low-level wind profile supportive to storm rotation. The surface data additionally indicate potentially lower lifting condensation levels over the plateaus versus the adjacent valleys, an attribute previously shown to be favorable for tornadogenesis. Rapid Update Cycle and Rapid Refresh model output indicate that Froude numbers for the plateaus in tornadic environments are likely supportive of enhanced low-level flow over the plateaus, which further indicates the potential for favorable wind profile changes for tornado production. Examples of tornadic storms rapidly acquiring increased low-level rotation while reaching the plateaus of northeast Alabama are presented. The use of this background to inform the VORTEX-SE 2017 field campaign is discussed.

scholarly journals Low Level Jet Wind Shear in the Sahel

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Saïdou Madougou ◽  
Frederique Saïd ◽  
Bernard Campistron ◽  
Fadel Kebe Cheikh
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Shear Direction ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Aircraft Navigation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Wind Profiler Radar ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Wind Shears ◽  
Uhf Wind Profiler

In the Sahel, a vertical wind shear appears in the dry and in the wet seasons. In Niamey, Niger, during the dry season, the period of strong shears is clearly linked to the Nocturnal Low Level Jet (LLJ) since it occurs in a narrow time period around 06H00 UTC at 60% of the cases reach shears which require an alert to the pilots (higher than 4 ms-1 per 100 m). The majority of cases occur during the night with a wind shear direction between 90 and 150° per 100 m, which is shown that it is dangerous for aircraft. In Bamako, Mali, high wind shears represent (higher than 4 ms-1 per 100 m) only 16-22% of the cases and can occur at any time of the day. There are, however, 8% of the cases, the whole day long, when the wind shear can reach more than 6 ms-1 per 100 m. Most of the wind shear directions are also between 0 and 90° per 100 m during the night. This is why the Agency for the safety of aircraft navigation in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA) has put in 2004 at Bamako airport an UHF wind profiler radar for monitoring nocturnal strong Low Level Jet wind shear which occur regularly in this airport.

scholarly journals Observations of Wall Cloud Formation in Supercell Thunderstorms during VORTEX2

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (12) ◽  
pp. 4823-4838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nolan T. Atkins ◽  
Eva M. Glidden ◽  
Timothy M. Nicholson
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Flank Region ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Rotating Wall ◽  
Supercell Thunderstorms

Abstract This study presents an integrated analysis of dual-Doppler, cloud photogrammetry, surface mobile mesonet, and sounding data to examine wall cloud formation in two supercells observed during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment II (VORTEX2). One of the wall clouds contained significant rotation and spawned an (enhanced Fujita) EF2 tornado, while the other was clearly displaced horizontally from the mesocyclone and exhibited little rotation at the time of data collection. Backward parcel trajectories show that the majority of the air entering the wall cloud base originates in the forward-flank region. A small fraction of the parcels enter the wall cloud base from the inflow. Some rear-flank downdraft parcels descend into the strongly rotating wall cloud. For both wall clouds, much of the observed wall cloud lowering is attributed to evaporatively cooled parcels in the forward-flank region being ingested into the low-level updraft. Additional wall cloud-base lowering is observed near the circulation center of the strongly rotating wall cloud. This localized lowering is created by the pressure deficit and associated cooling. The observational results presented herein are compared to long-standing wall cloud formation conceptual models published in the refereed literature.

scholarly journals A Numerical Study of the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba City Supercell Tornado. Part I: Vorticity Sources of Low-Level and Midlevel Mesocyclones

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (3) ◽  
pp. 1069-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wataru Mashiko
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Streamwise Vorticity ◽  
Retrograde Motion ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Vortex Lines ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Nested Grids ◽  
Generation Mechanisms ◽  
Eastern Japan ◽  
Gust Front

Abstract On 6 May 2012, an F3 supercell tornado, one of the most destructive tornadoes ever recorded in Japan, hit Tsukuba City in eastern Japan and caused severe damage. To clarify the generation mechanisms of the tornadic storm and tornado, high-resolution numerical simulations were conducted under realistic environmental conditions using triply nested grids. The innermost simulation with a 50-m mesh successfully reproduced the Tsukuba City tornadic supercell storm. In this study (the first of a two-part study), the vorticity sources responsible for mesocyclogenesis prior to tornadogenesis were investigated by analyzing vortex lines and the evolution of circulation of the mesocyclones. Vortex lines that passed through the midlevel mesocyclone (4-km height) originated from the environmental streamwise vorticity, whereas the low-level mesocyclone and low-level mesoanticyclone were connected by several arching vortex lines over the rear-flank downdraft associated with the hook-shaped distribution of hydrometeors (hereafter hook echo). Most of the circulation for the circuit surrounding the midlevel mesocyclone was conserved, although the baroclinity associated with positive buoyancy within the storm led to an up-and-down trend. The circulation of the material circuit encircling the low-level mesocyclone showed a gradual increase caused by baroclinity along the forward-flank gust front. Friction also had a positive net effect on the circulation. In contrast, most of the negative circulation of the low-level mesoanticyclone was rapidly acquired owing to baroclinity around the tip of the hook echo. Just after tornadogenesis, the low-level mesocyclone intensified significantly and developed upward, which caused retrograde motion of the midlevel mesocyclone.

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