scholarly journals A Survey of Changes in Cloud Cover and Cloud Types over Land from Surface Observations, 1971–96

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 717-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Warren ◽  
Ryan M. Eastman ◽  
Carole J. Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Total Cloud Cover ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
The North ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract From a dataset of weather observations from land stations worldwide, about 5400 stations were selected as having long periods of record with cloud-type information; they cover all continents and many islands. About 185 million synoptic reports were analyzed for total cloud cover and the amounts of nine different cloud types, for the 26-yr period 1971–96. Monthly and seasonal averages were formed for day and night separately. Time series of total-cloud-cover anomalies for individual continents show a large decrease for South America, small decreases for Eurasia and Africa, and no trend for North America. The largest interannual variations (2.7%) are found for Australia, which is strongly influenced by ENSO. The zonal average trends of total cloud cover are positive in the Arctic winter and spring, 60°–80°N, but negative in all seasons at most other latitudes. The global average trend of total cloud cover over land is small, −0.7% decade−1, offsetting the small positive trend that had been found for the ocean, and resulting in no significant trend for the land–ocean average. Significant regional trends are found for many cloud types. The night trends agree with day trends for total cloud cover and for all cloud types except cumulus. Cirrus trends are generally negative over all continents. A previously reported decline in total cloud cover over China and its neighbors appears to be largely attributable to high and middle clouds. Global trends of the cloud types exhibit trade-offs, with convective cloud types increasing at the expense of stratiform clouds, in both the low and middle levels. Interannual variations over Europe, particularly of nimbostratus, are well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation; significant correlations are also found across northern Asia. Interannual variations in many parts of the Tropics are well correlated with an ENSO index. Little correlation was found with an index of smoke aerosol, in seven regions of seasonal biomass burning. In the middle latitudes of both hemispheres, seasonal anomalies of cloud cover are positively correlated with surface temperature in winter and negatively correlated in summer, as expected if the direction of causality is from clouds to temperature.

Interannual Variations of Arctic Cloud Types in Relation to Sea Ice

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (15) ◽  
pp. 4216-4232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Eastman ◽  
Stephen G. Warren
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Total Cloud Cover ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Precipitating Clouds

Abstract Sea ice extent and thickness may be affected by cloud changes, and sea ice changes may in turn impart changes to cloud cover. Different types of clouds have different effects on sea ice. Visual cloud reports from land and ocean regions of the Arctic are analyzed here for interannual variations of total cloud cover and nine cloud types, and their relation to sea ice. Over the high Arctic, cloud cover shows a distinct seasonal cycle dominated by low stratiform clouds, which are much more common in summer than winter. Interannual variations of cloud amounts over the Arctic Ocean show significant correlations with surface air temperature, total sea ice extent, and the Arctic Oscillation. Low ice extent in September is generally preceded by a summer with decreased middle and precipitating clouds. Following a low-ice September there is enhanced low cloud cover in autumn. Total cloud cover appears to be greater throughout the year during low-ice years. Multidecadal trends from surface observations over the Arctic Ocean show increasing cloud cover, which may promote ice loss by longwave radiative forcing. Trends are positive in all seasons, but are most significant during spring and autumn, when cloud cover is positively correlated with surface air temperature. The coverage of summertime precipitating clouds has been decreasing over the Arctic Ocean, which may promote ice loss.

scholarly journals Empirical Mode Reduction in a Model of Extratropical Low-Frequency Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 1859-1877 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
M. Ghil
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Reduced Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract This paper constructs and analyzes a reduced nonlinear stochastic model of extratropical low-frequency variability. To do so, it applies multilevel quadratic regression to the output of a long simulation of a global baroclinic, quasigeostrophic, three-level (QG3) model with topography; the model's phase space has a dimension of O(104). The reduced model has 45 variables and captures well the non-Gaussian features of the QG3 model's probability density function (PDF). In particular, the reduced model's PDF shares with the QG3 model its four anomalously persistent flow patterns, which correspond to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as the Markov chain of transitions between these regimes. In addition, multichannel singular spectrum analysis identifies intraseasonal oscillations with a period of 35–37 days and of 20 days in the data generated by both the QG3 model and its low-dimensional analog. An analytical and numerical study of the reduced model starts with the fixed points and oscillatory eigenmodes of the model's deterministic part and uses systematically an increasing noise parameter to connect these with the behavior of the full, stochastically forced model version. The results of this study point to the origin of the QG3 model's multiple regimes and intraseasonal oscillations and identify the connections between the two types of behavior.

scholarly journals A stable Faroe Bank Channel overflow 1995–2015

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogi Hansen ◽  
Karin Margretha Húsgarð Larsen ◽  
Hjálmar Hátún ◽  
Svein Østerhus
Keyword(s):  
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ◽  
Narrow Channel ◽  
Volume Transport ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The North ◽  
Denmark Strait ◽  
Current Profiler ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract. The Faroe Bank Channel is the deepest passage across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR), and through it, there is a continuous deep flow of cold and dense water passing from the Arctic Mediterranean into the North Atlantic and further to the rest of the World oceans. This FBC-overflow is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which has recently been suggested to have weakened. From November 1995 to May 2015, the FBC-overflow has been monitored by a continuous ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) mooring, which has been deployed in the middle of this narrow channel. Combined with regular hydrography cruises and several short-term mooring experiments, this allows us to construct time series of volume transport and to follow changes in the hydrographic properties and density of the FBC-overflow. The mean kinematic overflow, derived from the velocity field solely, was found to be (2.2 ± 0.2) Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) with a slight, but not statistically significant, positive trend. The coldest part, and probably the bulk, of the FBC-overflow warmed by a bit more than 0.1 °C, especially after 2002. This warming was, however, accompanied by increasing salinities, which seem to have compensated for the temperature-induced density decrease. Thus, the FBC-overflow has remained stable in volume transport as well as density during the two decades from 1995 to 2015. This is consistent with reported observations from the other main overflow branch, the Denmark Strait overflow, and the three Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic Mediterranean that feed the overflows. If the AMOC has weakened during the last two decades, it is not likely to have been due to its northernmost extension – the exchanges across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.

scholarly journals Satellite-observed sea ice area flux through Baffin Bay: 1988–2015

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Bi ◽  
Yunhe Wang ◽  
Xiuli Xu ◽  
Yu Liang ◽  
Jue Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Baffin Bay ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Sea Ice Drift ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. Sea ice export through Baffin Bay plays a vital role in modulating the meridional overturning process in the downstream Labrador Sea. In this study, satellite-derived sea ice products are explored to obtain the sea ice flux (SIF) through three passages (referred to as A, B, and C for the north, middle, and south passages, respectively) of Baffin Bay. Over the period 1988–2015, the average annual (October–September) sea ice area export is 555 × 103 km2, 642 × 103 km2, and 551 × 103 km2 through passages A, B, and C, respectively. These amounts are less than that observed through the Fram Strait (FS, 707 × 103 km2). Clear increasing trends in annual sea ice export on the order of 53.1 × 103 km2/de and 43.2 × 103 km2/de are identified at passages A and B, respectively. The trend at the south passage (C), however, is slightly negative (−13.3 × 103 km2/de). The positive trends in annual SIF at A and B are primarily attributable to the increase during winter months, which is triggered by the accelerated sea ice motion (SIM) and partly compensated by the reduced sea ice concentration (SIC). During the summer months, the sea ice export through each Baffin Bay passage usually presents a negative trend, primarily because of the decline in SIM and it is further enhanced by a dramatic decrease in SIC. A significant positive trend in the net SIF (i.e. net ice inflow) is found for between the passages A (or B) and C at 54.5 (or 64.2) × 103 km2/de. Therefore, Baffin Bay may have presented a greater convergence of ice. Overall, the connection between Baffin Bay sea ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is tenuous, although the correlation is sensitive to variations in the selected time period. In contrast, the association with the cross-gate sea level pressure difference (SLPD) is robust in Baffin Bay (R = 0.69–0.71 depending on the passages), but relatively weaker compared with that in the FS (R = 0.74). Baffin Bay is bounded by Baffin Island to the west and Greenland to the east, thus, sea ice drift is not converted to the free state observed in the FS.

scholarly journals How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 997-1014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
Gualtiero Badin ◽  
Inga M. Koszalka
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

ABSTRACT The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.

scholarly journals Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Pozzoli ◽  
Srdan Dobricic ◽  
Simone Russo ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Effect of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on Changes in Climatic Conditions and River Flow in Poland

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dariusz Wrzesiński ◽  
Andrzej A. Marsz ◽  
Anna Styszyńska ◽  
Leszek Sobkowiak
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

The purpose of this study is to find connections between the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (NA THC), climate elements, such as cloud cover, precipitation, air temperature, sunshine duration, and relative humidity, and flow of rivers in Poland. The intensity of NA THC was characterized by the DG3L index, which was established to assess changes in the amount of heat transported by NA THC along with the transport of water to the Arctic. The paper explains and discusses the mechanism of impact of the NA THC changeability on the elements of the catchment water balance variability. The positive and negative phases of the DG3L index are strongly correlated with the heat anomalies in the upper layer of the North Atlantic waters. The obtained results show that changes of NA THC have significant impact on weather conditions and selected climate elements in Poland. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between the DG3L index and average annual air temperatures, particularly in April, July, and August, while negative between the DG3L index and the total cloud cover. Consequently, in the years with the positive values of the DG3L index, there are favorable conditions for the strong increase in evaporation and evapotranspiration from the ground surface. This has impact on flow of rivers in Poland, which shows considerable regional differences.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation favour harmful algal blooms in SW Europe

Harmful Algae ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 121-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
José C. Báez ◽  
Raimundo Real ◽  
Victoria López-Rodas ◽  
Eduardo Costas ◽  
A. Enrique Salvo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Harmful Algal Blooms ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

scholarly journals The Occurrence and Properties of Long-Lived Liquid-Bearing Clouds over the Greenland Ice Sheet and Their Relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 921-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Edwards-Opperman ◽  
Steven Cavallo ◽  
David Turner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractStratiform liquid-bearing clouds (LBCs), defined herein as either pure liquid or mixed-phase clouds, have a large impact on the surface radiation budget across the Arctic. LBCs lasting at least 6 h are observed at Summit, Greenland, year-round with a maximum in occurrence during summer. Mean cloud-base height is below 1 km for 85% of LBC cases identified, 59% have mean liquid water path (LWP) values between 10 and 40 g m−2, and most produce sporadic light ice-phase precipitation. During their occurrence, the atmosphere above the ice sheet is anomalously warm and moist, with southerly winds observed over much of the ice sheet, including at Summit. LBCs that occur when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in the negative phase correspond to strong ridging centered over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), allowing for southwesterly flow over the GIS toward Summit. During the positive phase of the NAO, the occurrence of LBCs corresponds to a cyclone located off the southeastern coast of the ice sheet, which leads to easterly-to-southeasterly flow toward Summit. Furthermore, air parcels at Summit frequently originate from below the elevation of Summit, indicating that orographic lift along the ice sheet is a factor in the occurrence of LBCs at Summit. LBCs are more frequently observed during the negative NAO, and both the LWP and precipitation rate are larger in LBCs occurring during this phase. Mean LWP in LBCs occurring during the negative NAO is 15 g m−2 larger than in LBCs occurring during the positive phase.

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