scholarly journals Influence of “Realistic” Land Surface Wetness on Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation in Boreal Summer

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1450-1460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinjiro Kanae ◽  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Tomohito Yamada ◽  
Taikan Oki
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Surface Wetness ◽  
Semiarid Regions

Abstract Outputs from two ensembles of atmospheric model simulations for 1951–98 define the influence of “realistic” land surface wetness on seasonal precipitation predictability in boreal summer. The ensembles consist of one forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the other forced with realistic land surface wetness as well as SSTs. Predictability was determined from correlations between the time series of simulated and observed precipitation. The ratio of forced variance to total variance determined potential predictability. Predictability occurred over some land areas adjacent to tropical oceans without land wetness forcing. On the other hand, because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, considerable parts of the land areas of the globe did not even show potential predictability with both land wetness and SST forcings. The use of land wetness forcing enhanced predictability over semiarid regions. Such semiarid regions are generally characterized by a negative correlation between fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat from the land surface, and are “water-regulating” areas where soil moisture plays a governing role in land–atmosphere interactions. Actual seasonal prediction may be possible in these regions if slowly varying surface conditions can be estimated in advance. In contrast, some land regions (e.g., south of the Sahel, the Amazon, and Indochina) showed little predictability despite high potential predictability. These regions are mostly characterized by a positive correlation between the surface fluxes, and are “radiation-regulating” areas where the atmosphere plays a leading role. Improvements in predictability for these regions may require further improvements in model physics.

scholarly journals The Land Surface Contribution to the Potential Predictability of Boreal Summer Season Climate

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 618-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Dirmeyer
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Noise Component ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Soil Wetness

Abstract The role of the land surface in contributing to the potential predictability of the boreal summer climate is investigated with a coupled land–atmosphere climate model. Ensemble simulations for 1982–99 have been conducted with specified observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Several treatments of the land surface are investigated: climatological land surface initialization, realistic initialization of soil wetness, and a series of experiments where downward surface fluxes over land are replaced with observed proxies of precipitation, shortwave, and longwave radiation. Without flux replacement the model exhibits strong drift in soil wetness and both systematic errors and poor simulation of interannual variations of precipitation and near-surface temperature. With flux replacement there are large improvements in simulation of both spatial patterns and interannual variability of precipitation and surface temperature. The land surface apparently does contribute, through positive feedback with the atmosphere, to regional climate anomalies. However, because of the sizeable noise component in precipitation, the strong land–atmosphere feedback may not translate into reliable enhancements in predictability, particularly in years of weak anomalies in the land surface initial conditions at the start of boreal summer.

scholarly journals Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 4161-4207 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Ter Maat ◽  
R. W. A. Hutjes
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Carbon Exchange ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modelling System

Abstract. A large scale mismatch exists between our understanding and quantification of ecosystem atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide at local scale and continental scales. This paper will focus on the carbon exchange on the regional scale to address the following question: What are the main controlling factors determining atmospheric carbon dioxide content at a regional scale? We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also sub models for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle include the main controlling mechanisms and capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used which were taken during an intensive observational campaign in the central Netherlands in summer 2002. These included flux-site observations, vertical profiles at tall towers and spatial fluxes of various variables taken by aircraft. The coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C) generally does a good job in simulating results close to reality. The validation of the model demonstrates that surface fluxes of heat, water and CO2 are reasonably well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology is captured by the model. Comparing spatially explicit simulated and observed fluxes we conclude that in general simulated latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model to the observations which exhibit large standard deviation for all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same test also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

Long-Term Climate and Derived Surface Hydrology and Energy Flux Data for Mexico: 1925–2004

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1936-1946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunmei Zhu ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract Studying the role of land surface conditions in the Mexican portion of the North American monsoon system (NAMS) region has been a challenge due to the paucity of long-term observations. A long-term gridded observation-based climate dataset suitable for forcing land surface models, as well as model-derived land surface states and fluxes for a domain consisting of all of Mexico, is described. The datasets span the period of January 1925–October 2004 at 1/8° spatial resolution at a subdaily (3 h) time step. The simulated runoff matches the observations plausibly over most of the 14 small river basins spanning all of Mexico, which suggests that long-term mean evapotranspiration is realistically reproduced. On this basis, and given the physically based model parameterizations of soil moisture and energy fluxes, the other surface fluxes and state variables such as soil moisture should be represented reasonably. In addition, a comparison of the surface fluxes from this study is performed with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data on a seasonal mean basis. The results indicate that downward shortwave radiation is generally smaller than in the NARR data, especially in summer. Net radiation, on the other hand, is somewhat larger in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model than in the NARR data for much of the year over much of the domain. The differences in radiative and turbulent fluxes are attributed to (i) the parameterization used in the VIC forcings for solar and downward longwave radiation, which links them to the daily temperature and temperature range, and (ii) differences in the land surface parameterizations used in VIC and the NCEP–Oregon State University–U.S. Air Force–NWS/Hydrologic Research Lab (Noah) land scheme used in NARR.

scholarly journals Multimodel Prediction Skills of the Somali and Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2445-2464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Li ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Harry Hendon ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual

Predictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment–Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only ACCESS-S1 and the MME can skillfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skillfully predicted up to 4–5 months ahead by SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and the MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF seesaw, as well as the CEF seesaw index–related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model’s ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker circulation that brings ENSO’s influence to bear on the CEFs.

scholarly journals MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hylke E. Beck ◽  
Albert I. J. M. van Dijk ◽  
Vincenzo Levizzani ◽  
Jaap Schellekens ◽  
Diego G. Miralles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Comparative Performance ◽  
Orographic Effects ◽  
Global Precipitation

Abstract. Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of time scale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13,762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 versus 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments (< 50,000 km2) across the globe. Specifically, we calibrated the simple conceptual hydrological model HBV against daily Q observations with P from each of the different datasets. For the 1058 sparsely-gauged catchments, representative of 83.9 % of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), MSWEP obtained a median calibration NSE of 0.52 versus 0.29–0.39 for the other P datasets. MSWEP is available via http://www.gloh2o.org.

The evaluation of land surface parameters for model to derive land surface fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqiang Ma ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Yizhe Han ◽  
Wei Hu ◽  
Lei Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Default Model ◽  
Model Configuration

&lt;p&gt;Firstly, based on the difference of model and in-situ observations, a serious of sensitive experiments were done by using WRF. In order to use remote sensing products, a land-atmosphere model was initialized by ingesting land surface parameters, such as AMSR-E RS products, and the results were compared with the default model configuration and with in-situ long-term CAMP/Tibet observations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Secondly, a land-atmosphere model was initialized by ingesting AMSR-E products, and the results were compared with the default model configuration and with in-situ long-term CAMP/Tibet observations. The differences between the AMSR-E initialized model runs with the default model configuration and in situ data showed an apparent inconsistency in the model-simulated land surface heat fluxes. The results showed that the soil moisture was sensitive to the specific model configuration. To evaluate and verify the model stability, a long-term modeling study with AMSR-E soil moisture data ingestion was performed. Based on test simulations, AMSR-E data were assimilated into an atmospheric model for July and August 2007. The results showed that the land surface fluxes agreed well with both the in-situ data and the results of the default model configuration. Therefore, the simulation can be used to retrieve land surface heat fluxes from an atmospheric model over the Tibetan Plateau.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;All of the different methods will clarify the land surface heating field in complex plateau, it also can affect atmospheric cycle over the Tibetan Plateau even all of the global atmospheric cycle pattern.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Flux Replacement as a Method to Diagnose Coupled Land–Atmosphere Model Feedback

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1034-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Mei Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Surface State ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The potential role of the land surface state in improving predictions of seasonal climate is investigated with a coupled land–atmosphere climate model. Climate simulations for 18 boreal-summer seasons (1982–99) have been conducted with specified observed sea surface temperature (SST). The impact on prediction skill of the initial land surface state (interannually varying versus climatological soil wetness) and the effect of errors in downward surface fluxes (precipitation and longwave/shortwave radiation) over land are investigated with a number of parallel experiments. Flux errors are addressed by replacing the downward fluxes with observed values in various combinations to ascertain the separate roles of water and energy flux errors on land surface state variables, upward water and energy fluxes from the land surface, and the important climate variables of precipitation and near-surface air temperature. Large systematic errors are found in the model, which are only mildly alleviated by the specification of realistic initial soil wetness. The model shows little skill in simulating seasonal anomalies of precipitation, but it does have skill in simulating temperature variations. Replacement of the downward surface fluxes has a clear positive impact on systematic errors, suggesting that the land–atmosphere feedback is helping to exacerbate climate drift. Improvement in the simulation of year-to-year variations in climate is even more evident. With flux replacement, the climate model simulates temperature anomalies with considerable skill over nearly all land areas, and a large fraction of the globe shows significant skill in the simulation of precipitation anomalies. This suggests that the land surface can communicate climate anomalies back to the atmosphere, given proper meteorological forcing. Flux substitution appears to have the largest benefit to improving precipitation skill over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, whereas use of realistic land surface initial conditions improves skill to significant levels over regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Correlations between sets of integrations show that the model has a robust and systematic global response to SST anomalies.

scholarly journals Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 2397-2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Ter Maat ◽  
R. W. A. Hutjes ◽  
F. Miglietta ◽  
B. Gioli ◽  
F. C. Bosveld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modelling System

Abstract. This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables. The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C) are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature) is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

scholarly journals Explicit Representation of Spatial Subgrid-Scale Heterogeneity in an ESM

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1357-1371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp de Vrese ◽  
Stefan Hagemann
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Subgrid Scale ◽  
Effective Parameters ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Horizontal Length

Abstract In present-day Earth system models, the coupling of land surface and atmosphere is based on simplistic assumptions. Often the heterogeneous land surface is represented by a set of effective parameters valid for an entire model grid box. Other models assume that the surface fluxes become horizontally homogeneous at the lowest atmospheric model level. For heterogeneity above a certain horizontal length scale this is not the case, resulting in spatial subgrid-scale variability in the fluxes and in the state of the atmosphere. The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology’s Earth System Model is used with three different coupling schemes to assess the importance of the representation of spatial heterogeneity at the land surface as well as within the atmosphere. Simulations show that the land surface–atmosphere coupling distinctly influences the simulated near-surface processes with respect to different land-cover types. The representation of heterogeneity also has a distinct impact on the simulated gridbox mean state and fluxes in a large fraction of land surface.

scholarly journals Robust observations of land-to-atmosphere feedbacks using the information flows of FLUXNET

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Gerken ◽  
Benjamin L. Ruddell ◽  
Rong Yu ◽  
Paul C. Stoy ◽  
Darren T. Drewry
Keyword(s):  
Information Flow ◽  
Coupling Strength ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Boreal Summer

Abstract Feedbacks between atmospheric processes like precipitation and land surface fluxes including evapotranspiration are difficult to observe, but critical for understanding the role of the land surface in the Earth System. To quantify global surface-atmosphere feedbacks we use results of a process network (PN) applied to 251 eddy covariance sites from the LaThuile database to train a neural network across the global terrestrial surface. There is a strong land–atmosphere coupling between latent (LE) and sensible heat flux (H) and precipitation (P) during summer months in temperate regions, and between H and P during winter, whereas tropical rainforests show little coupling seasonality. Savanna, shrubland, and other semi-arid ecosystems exhibit strong responses in their coupling behavior based on water availability. Feedback couplings from surface fluxes to P peaks at aridity (P/potential evapotranspiration ETp) values near unity, whereas coupling with respect to clouds, inferred from reduced global radiation, increases as P/ETp approaches zero. Spatial patterns in feedback coupling strength are related to climatic zone and biome type. Information flow statistics highlight hotspots of (1) persistent land–atmosphere coupling in sub-Saharan Africa, (2) boreal summer coupling in the central and southwestern US, Brazil, and the Congo basin and (3) in the southern Andes, South Africa and Australia during austral summer. Our data-driven approach to quantifying land atmosphere coupling strength that leverages the global FLUXNET database and information flow statistics provides a basis for verification of feedback interactions in general circulation models and for predicting locations where land cover change will feedback to climate or weather.

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