scholarly journals On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of Global Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (18) ◽  
pp. 7495-7514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. King ◽  
Reto Knutti ◽  
Peter Uhe ◽  
Daniel M. Mitchell ◽  
Sophie C. Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Individual Model ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonal-average temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. However, individual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our findings suggest that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets.

scholarly journals Bay of Bengal‐East Asia‐Pacific Teleconnection in Boreal Summer

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (8) ◽  
pp. 4395-4412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruowen Yang ◽  
Shu Gui ◽  
Jie Cao
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer

Super Droughts over East Asia since 1960 under the Impacts of Global Warming and Decadal Variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Qiang Fu ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Qiulin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Decadal Variability

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different shared socioeconomic pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Guo ◽  
Laura Wilcox ◽  
Massimo Bollasina ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Marianne Lund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

<p>The occurrence of severe haze events remains a serious problem in Beijing. Previous studies suggested that the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze may increase with global warming. The new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) cover a wide range of uncertainties in aerosol and greenhouse gases emissions. Global and Chinese aerosol emissions are projected to decrease in most SSPs, while increases in greenhouse gases and global warming will continue for the rest of the century. The future, therefore, remains unclear.</p><p>We quantified the air pollution over Beijing and associated weather patterns using multiple indices calculated from the SSPs</p><p>We show that the occurrence of weather patterns conducive to the formation of haze significantly increases by the end of the century due to increases in greenhouse gases. Aerosol reductions also cause an increase in their occurrence, but reduce the severity of haze, and overall reducing aerosol emissions will be beneficial.</p>

The local and remote atmospheric impacts of Africa’s 21st century aerosol emission trajectory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Wells ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Emission Region ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Remote Locations ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Radiation Fluxes ◽  
The World ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Biomass

<p>Aerosols are a major climate forcer, but their historical effect has the largest uncertainty of any forcing; their mechanisms and impacts are not well understood. Due to their short lifetime, aerosols have large impacts near their emission region, but they also have effects on the climate in remote locations. In recent years, studies have investigated the influences of regional aerosols on global and regional climate, and the mechanisms that lead to remote responses to their inhomogeneous forcing. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs), transient future experiments were performed in UKESM1, testing the effect of African emissions following the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario as the rest of the world follows SSP1-RCP1.9, relative to a global SSP1-RCP1.9 control. SSP3 sees higher direct anthropogenic aerosol emissions, but lower biomass burning emissions, over Africa. Experiments were performed changing each of these sets of emissions, and both. A further set of experiments additionally accounted for changing future CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, to investigate the impact of CO<sub>2</sub> on the responses to aerosol perturbations. Impacts on radiation fluxes, temperature, circulation and precipitation are investigated, both over the emission region (Africa), where microphysical effects dominate, and remotely, where dynamical influences become more relevant. </p>

scholarly journals Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter – a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Joos ◽  
Erica Madonna ◽  
Kasja Witlox ◽  
Sylvaine Ferrachat ◽  
Heini Wernli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Aerosol Particles ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Conveyor Belts ◽  
Winter Time ◽  
Warm Conveyor Belts ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract. While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global cli- mate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and the amount of precipitation from warm conveyor belts in low pressure systems in the winter time North Pacific can be detected. We conclude that while polluted warm con- veyor belt trajectories start with 5–10 times higher black carbon concentrations, the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial and present-day conditions. Precipitation formation is however supressed in the most polluted warm conveyor belt trajectories.

scholarly journals La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 4207-4225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kohyama ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The West ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Unprecedented strength of Hadley circulation in 2015–2016 impacts on CO<sub>2</sub> interhemispheric difference

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorgen S. Frederiksen ◽  
Roger J. Francey
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Interhemispheric Difference ◽  
Eddy Transport ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. The extreme El Niño of 2015 and 2016 coincided with record global warming and unprecedented strength of the Hadley circulation with significant impact on mean interhemispheric (IH) transport of CO2 and on the difference in CO2 concentration between Mauna Loa and Cape Grim (Cmlo-cgo). The relative roles of eddy transport and mean advective transport on IH CO2 annual differences from 1992 through to 2016 is explored. Eddy transport processes occur mainly in boreal winter-spring when Cmlo-cgo is large; an important component is due to Rossby wave generation by the Himalayas and propagation through the equatorial Pacific westerly duct generating and transmitting turbulent kinetic energy. Mean transport occurs mainly in boreal summer-autumn and varies with the strength of the Hadley circulation. The timing of annual changes in Cmlo-cgo is found to coincide well with dynamical indices that we introduce to characterize the transports. During the unrivalled 2009–2010 step in Cmlo-cgo indices of eddy and mean transport reinforce. In contrast for the 2015 to 2016 change in Cmlo-cgo the mean transport counteracts the eddy transport and the record strength of the Hadley circulation determines the annual IH CO2 difference. The interaction of increasing global warming and extreme El Niños may have important implications for altering the balance between eddy and mean IH CO2 transfer.

scholarly journals Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 16023-16040
Author(s):  
Kine Onsum Moseid ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Trude Storelvmo ◽  
Ingeborg Rian Julsrud ◽  
Dirk Olivié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Surface Energy Fluxes ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Wrong Reason ◽  
The Right ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

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