scholarly journals Evaporation and Precipitation Surface Effects in Local Mass Continuity Laws of Moist Air

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 2642-2652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Wacker ◽  
Thomas Frisius ◽  
Fritz Herbert

Abstract The local mass balance equations of cloudy air are formulated for a model system composed of dry air, water vapor, and four categories of water condensate particles, as typically adopted for numerical weather prediction and climate models. The choice of the barycentric velocity as reference motion provides the most convenient form of the total mass continuity equation. Mass transfer across the earth’s surface due to precipitation and evaporation causes a nonvanishing barycentric vertical velocity ws and is proportional to the local difference between evaporation rate and rain plus snow rate. Hence ws vanishes only in the special situation that evaporation and precipitation balance exactly. Alternative concepts related to different reference motions are reviewed. However, the choice of the barycentric velocity turns out to be advantageous for several reasons. The implication of the nonvanishing total mass transport across the earth’s surface is estimated from model simulations for two extreme weather situations: a polar cold air outbreak and a tropical cyclone. While the effect is small in the first case, it is important in the latter. The large precipitation rates in the tropical cyclone case cause a loss of atmospheric mass, which corresponds to a vertical velocity at the surface larger than −20 mm s−1, and an instantaneous drop in pressure, which if sustained for 6 h, would correspond to about 49 hPa; this demonstrates the necessity of using the correct formulation of the mass balance in simulation models for moist air.

1999 ◽  
Vol 45 (151) ◽  
pp. 533-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Reeh ◽  
Søren Nørvang Madsen ◽  
Johan Jakob Mohr

AbstractUntil now, an assumption of surface-parallel glacier flow has been used to express the vertical velocity component in terms of the horizontal velocity vector, permitting all three velocity components to be determined from synthetic aperture radar interferometry. We discuss this assumption, which neglects the influence of the local mass balance and a possible contribution to the vertical velocity arising if the glacier is not in steady state. We find that the mass-balance contribution to the vertical surface velocity is not always negligible as compared to the surface-slope contribution. Moreover, the vertical velocity contribution arising if the ice sheet is not in steady state can be significant. We apply the principle of mass conservation to derive an equation relating the vertical surface velocity to the horizontal velocity vector. This equation, valid for both steady-state and non-steady-state conditions, depends on the ice-thickness distribution. Replacing the surface-parallel-flow assumption with a correct relationship between the surface velocity components requires knowledge of additional quantities such as surface mass balance or ice thickness.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4344-4359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Stowasser ◽  
Kevin Hamilton

Abstract The relations between local monthly mean shortwave cloud radiative forcing and aspects of the resolved-scale meteorological fields are investigated in hindcast simulations performed with 12 of the global coupled models included in the model intercomparison conducted as part of the preparation for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In particular, the connection of the cloud forcing over tropical and subtropical ocean areas with resolved midtropospheric vertical velocity and with lower-level relative humidity are investigated and compared among the models. The model results are also compared with observational determinations of the same relationships using satellite data for the cloud forcing and global reanalysis products for the vertical velocity and humidity fields. In the analysis the geographical variability in the long-term mean among all grid points and the interannual variability of the monthly mean at each grid point are considered separately. The shortwave cloud radiative feedback (SWCRF) plays a crucial role in determining the predicted response to large-scale climate forcing (such as from increased greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is thus important to test how the cloud representations in current climate models respond to unforced variability. Overall there is considerable variation among the results for the various models, and all models show some substantial differences from the comparable observed results. The most notable deficiency is a weak representation of the cloud radiative response to variations in vertical velocity in cases of strong ascending or strong descending motions. While the models generally perform better in regimes with only modest upward or downward motions, even in these regimes there is considerable variation among the models in the dependence of SWCRF on vertical velocity. The largest differences between models and observations when SWCRF values are stratified by relative humidity are found in either very moist or very dry regimes. Thus, the largest errors in the model simulations of cloud forcing are prone to be in the western Pacific warm pool area, which is characterized by very moist strong upward currents, and in the rather dry regions where the flow is dominated by descending mean motions.


2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (8) ◽  
pp. 2547-2565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Dominique Leroux ◽  
Matthieu Plu ◽  
David Barbary ◽  
Frank Roux ◽  
Philippe Arbogast

Abstract The rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dora (2007, southwest Indian Ocean) under upper-level trough forcing is investigated. TC–trough interaction is simulated using a limited-area operational numerical weather prediction model. The interaction between the storm and the trough involves a coupled evolution of vertical wind shear and binary vortex interaction in the horizontal and vertical dimensions. The three-dimensional potential vorticity structure associated with the trough undergoes strong deformation as it approaches the storm. Potential vorticity (PV) is advected toward the tropical cyclone core over a thick layer from 200 to 500 hPa while the TC upper-level flow turns cyclonic from the continuous import of angular momentum. It is found that vortex intensification first occurs inside the eyewall and results from PV superposition in the thick aforementioned layer. The main pathway to further storm intensification is associated with secondary eyewall formation triggered by external forcing. Eddy angular momentum convergence and eddy PV fluxes are responsible for spinning up an outer eyewall over the entire troposphere, while spindown is observed within the primary eyewall. The 8-km-resolution model is able to reproduce the main features of the eyewall replacement cycle observed for TC Dora. The outer eyewall intensifies further through mean vertical advection under dynamically forced upward motion. The processes are illustrated and quantified using various diagnostics.


2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1334-1354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Galarneau ◽  
Thomas M. Hamill

Abstract Analysis and diagnosis of the track forecasts for Tropical Cyclone (TC) Rita (2005) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast dataset is presented. The operational numerical weather prediction guidance and GEFS reforecasts initialized at 0000 UTC 20–22 September 2005, 2–4 days prior to landfall, were all characterized by a persistent left-of-track error. The numerical guidance indicated a significant threat of landfall for the Houston, Texas, region on 24 September. The largest mass evacuation in U.S. history was ordered, with the evacuation resulting in more fatalities than TC Rita itself. TC Rita made landfall along the Texas–Louisiana coastal zone on 24 September. This study utilizes forecasts from the GEFS reforecast and a high-resolution regional reforecast. The regional reforecast was generated using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (AHW) with the GEFS reforecasts providing the initial and boundary conditions. The results show that TC Rita’s track was sensitive to errors in both the synoptic-scale flow and TC intensity. Within the GEFS reforecast ensemble, the nonrecurving members were characterized by a midlevel subtropical anticyclone that extended too far south and west over the southern United States, and an upper-level cutoff low west and anticyclone east of TC Rita that were too weak. The AHW regional reforecast ensemble further highlighted the role of intensity and steering-layer depth in TC Rita’s track. While the AHW forecast was initialized with a TC that was too weak, the ensemble members that were able to intensify TC Rita more rapidly produced a better track forecast because the TCs followed a deeper steering-layer flow.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Steinfeld ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Richard Forbes ◽  
Stephan Pfahl

Abstract. Recent climatological studies based on trajectory calculations have pointed to an important role of latent heating during cloud formation for the dynamics of anticyclonic circulation anomalies such as atmospheric blocking. However, the causal relationship between latent heating and blocking formation has not yet been fully elucidated. To explicitly study this causal relationship, we perform sensitivity simulations of five selected blocking events with a global weather prediction model in which we artificially eliminate latent heating in clouds upstream of the blocking anticyclones. This elimination has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation in all case studies, but there is also significant case-to-case variability: some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating, while for others the amplitude of the blocking anticyclones is merely reduced. This strong influence of latent heating on the jet stream is due to the injection of air masses with low potential vorticity (PV) into the upper troposphere in strongly ascending warm conveyor belt airstreams, and the interaction of the associated divergent outflow with the upper-level PV structure. The important influence of diabatic heating demonstrated with these experiments suggests that an accurate parameterization of microphysical processes in weather prediction and climate models is crucial for adequately representing blocking dynamics.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1131-1156
Author(s):  
Marie-Luise Kapsch ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz ◽  
Florian A. Ziemen ◽  
Christian B. Rodehacke ◽  
Clemens Schannwell

Abstract. A realistic simulation of the surface mass balance (SMB) is essential for simulating past and future ice-sheet changes. As most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) are not capable of realistically representing processes determining the SMB, most studies of the SMB are limited to observations and regional climate models and cover the last century and near future only. Using transient simulations with the Max Planck Institute ESM in combination with an energy balance model (EBM), we extend previous research and study changes in the SMB and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the last deglaciation. The EBM is used to calculate and downscale the SMB onto a higher spatial resolution than the native ESM grid and allows for the resolution of SMB variations due to topographic gradients not resolved by the ESM. An evaluation for historical climate conditions (1980–2010) shows that derived SMBs compare well with SMBs from regional modeling. Throughout the deglaciation, changes in insolation dominate the Greenland SMB. The increase in insolation and associated warming early in the deglaciation result in an ELA and SMB increase. The SMB increase is caused by compensating effects of melt and accumulation: the warming of the atmosphere leads to an increase in melt at low elevations along the ice-sheet margins, while it results in an increase in accumulation at higher levels as a warmer atmosphere precipitates more. After 13 ka, the increase in melt begins to dominate, and the SMB decreases. The decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation after 9 ka leads to an increasing SMB and decreasing ELA. Superimposed on these long-term changes are centennial-scale episodes of abrupt SMB and ELA decreases related to slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that lead to a cooling over most of the Northern Hemisphere.


2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1620-1636 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Nakamura ◽  
U. Lall ◽  
Y. Kushnir ◽  
B. Rajagopalan

AbstractA nonparametric stochastic model is developed and tested for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks. Tropical cyclone tracks demonstrate continuity and memory over many time and space steps. Clusters of tracks can be coherent, and the separation between clusters may be marked by geographical locations where groups of tracks diverge as a result of the physics of the underlying process. Consequently, their evolution may be non-Markovian. Markovian simulation models, as are often used, may produce tracks that potentially diverge or lose memory quicker than happens in nature. This is addressed here through a model that simulates tracks by randomly sampling track segments of varying length, selected from historical tracks. For performance evaluation, a spatial grid is imposed on the domain of interest. For each grid box, long-term tropical cyclone risk is assessed through the annual probability distributions of the number of storm hours, landfalls, winds, and other statistics. Total storm length is determined at birth by local distribution, and movement to other tropical cyclone segments by distance to neighbor tracks, comparative vector, and age of track. The model is also applied to the conditional simulation of hurricane tracks from specific positions for hurricanes that were not included in the model fitting so as to see whether the probabilistic coverage intervals properly cover the subsequent track. Consequently, tests of both the long-term probability distributions of hurricane landfall and of event simulations from the model are provided.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Stretton ◽  
William Morrison ◽  
Robin Hogan ◽  
Sue Grimmond

<p>The heterogenous structure of cities impacts radiative exchanges (e.g. albedo and heat storage). Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often characterise the urban structure with an infinite street canyon – but this does not capture the three-dimensional urban form. SPARTACUS-Urban (SU) - a fast, multi-layer radiative transfer model designed for NWP - is evaluated using the explicit Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model for shortwave fluxes across several model domains – from a regular array of cubes to real cities .</p><p>SU agrees with DART (errors < 5.5% for all variables) when the SU assumptions of building distribution are fulfilled (e.g. randomly distribution). For real-world areas with pitched roofs, SU underestimates the albedo (< 10%) and shortwave transmission to the surface (< 15%), and overestimates wall-plus-roof absorption (9-27%), with errors increasing with solar zenith angle. SU should be beneficial to weather and climate models, as it allows more realistic urban form (cf. most schemes) without large increases in computational cost.</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5053-5067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeonjae Lee ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Minkyu Lee ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980–2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024–49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25°N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.


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