scholarly journals Southern African Monthly Rainfall Variability: An Analysis Based on Generalized Linear Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4600-4617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Ambrosino ◽  
Richard E. Chandler ◽  
Martin C. Todd

Southern Africa is characterized by a high degree of rainfall variability, affecting agriculture and hydrology, among other sectors. This paper aims to investigate such variability and to identify stable relationships with its potential drivers in the climate system; such relationships may be used as the basis for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs, for example. The analysis uses generalized linear models (GLMs). The GLMs are fitted to twentieth-century observational data for the period 1957–2006 to characterize the dependence of monthly precipitation occurrences and amounts upon the climate indicators of interest. In contrast with many of the analyses that have previously been used to investigate controls on precipitation in the region, GLMs allow for the investigation of the relationships between different components of the climate system (geographical and climatic drivers) simultaneously. Six climate factors were found to drive part of the rainfall variability in the region, and their modeled effect upon rainfall occurrences and amounts resulted in general agreement with previous studies. Among the retained indices, relative humidity and El Niño accounted for the highest degree of explained variability. The location and intensity of the jet stream were also found to have a statistically significant and physically meaningful effect upon rainfall variability.

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharmin Nahar Sumi ◽  
Narayan Chandra Sinha ◽  
M. Ataharul Islam

AbstractHaving the adequate knowledge about the behavior of climatic variables on the occurrences of rainfall is needed to the country’s economists and agriculturists for saving the country’s people from the devastating natural hazards like flash flood, drought, heavy rainfall, etc. Therefore, the study has been taken initiative to identify the influence of climatic variables for the occurrences of rainfall. The study has been developed generalized linear models (GLMs) for Poisson distribution for weekly and fortnightly count data of daily rainfall occurrences for the summer and monsoon seasons for five regional rainfall stations of Bangladesh. For these models, minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity are considered as explanatory variables. For five regional rainfall stations, the model selection procedures AIC and BIC indicate that the GLMs for the Poisson distribution satisfactorily explain the influence of climatic variables for the fortnightly occurrences of rainfall in the summer and monsoon seasons. The GLMs for the summer season of fortnightly occurrences of rainfall indicate that if one unit of relative humidity increases, then the probability of rainy days will be increased by 12 percent in Feni station, 6 percent in Sylhet, Khulna and Rajshahi stations, and 7 percent in Dhaka station. Besides, the GLMs for the monsoon season of fortnightly occurrences of rainfall indicate that if one unit increases of minimum temperature, then the probability of rainy days will be increased by 22 percent, 19 percent, 24 percent, 17 percent and 19 percent in Feni, Sylhet, Khulna, Rajshahi and Dhaka stations, respectively. Further, maximum temperature indicates negative influence on the occurrences of rainfall for all the stations and seasons of the period. The study indicates that the relative humidity for summer season and minimum temperature for monsoon season play remarkable role for changing fortnightly occurrences of rainfall in all the regions of the country.


2020 ◽  
Vol 02 ◽  
Author(s):  
RM Garcia ◽  
WF Vieira-Junior ◽  
JD Theobaldo ◽  
NIP Pini ◽  
GM Ambrosano ◽  
...  

Objective: To evaluate color and roughness of bovine enamel exposed to dentifrices, dental bleaching with 35% hydrogen peroxide (HP), and erosion/staining by red wine. Methods: Bovine enamel blocks were exposed to: artificial saliva (control), Oral-B Pro-Health (stannous fluoride with sodium fluoride, SF), Sensodyne Repair & Protect (bioactive glass, BG), Colgate Pro-Relief (arginine and calcium carbonate, AR), or Chitodent (chitosan, CHI). After toothpaste exposure, half (n=12) of the samples were bleached (35% HP), and the other half were not (n=12). The color (CIE L*a* b*, ΔE), surface roughness (Ra), and scanning electron microscopy were evaluated. Color and roughness were assessed at baseline, post-dentifrice and/or -dental bleaching, and after red wine. The data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) (ΔE) for repeated measures (Ra), followed by Tukey ́s test. The L*, a*, and b* values were analyzed by generalized linear models (a=0.05). Results: The HP promoted an increase in Ra values; however, the SF, BG, and AR did not enable this alteration. After red wine, all groups apart from SF (unbleached) showed increases in Ra values; SF and AR promoted decreases in L* values; AR demonstrated higher ΔE values, differing from the control; and CHI decreased the L* variation in the unbleached group. Conclusion: Dentifrices did not interfere with bleaching efficacy of 35% HP. However, dentifrices acted as a preventive agent against surface alteration from dental bleaching (BG, SF, and AR) or red wine (SF). Dentifrices can decrease (CHI) or increase (AR and SF) staining by red wine.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 1105-1115
Author(s):  
Shuqing Wu ◽  
Xin Cui ◽  
Shaoyu Zhang ◽  
Wenqi Tian ◽  
Jiazhen Liu ◽  
...  

Aim: This real-world data study investigated the economic burden and associated factors of readmissions for cerebrospinal fluid leakage (CSFL) post-cranial, transsphenoidal, or spinal index surgeries. Methods: Costs of CSFL readmissions and index hospitalizations during 2014–2018 were collected. Readmission cost was measured as absolute cost and as percentage of index hospitalization cost. Factors associated with readmission cost were explored using generalized linear models. Results: Readmission cost averaged US$2407–6106, 35–94% of index hospitalization cost. Pharmacy costs were the leading contributor. Generalized linear models showed transsphenoidal index surgery and surgical treatment for CSFL were associated with higher readmission costs. Conclusion: CSFL readmissions are a significant economic burden in China. Factors associated with higher readmission cost should be monitored.


1989 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-416
Author(s):  
Gerald Van Belle ◽  
Sue Leurgans ◽  
Pat Friel ◽  
Sunwei Guo ◽  
Mark Yerby

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022110082
Author(s):  
Yang Li ◽  
Wei Ma ◽  
Yichen Qin ◽  
Feifang Hu

Concerns have been expressed over the validity of statistical inference under covariate-adaptive randomization despite the extensive use in clinical trials. In the literature, the inferential properties under covariate-adaptive randomization have been mainly studied for continuous responses; in particular, it is well known that the usual two-sample t-test for treatment effect is typically conservative. This phenomenon of invalid tests has also been found for generalized linear models without adjusting for the covariates and are sometimes more worrisome due to inflated Type I error. The purpose of this study is to examine the unadjusted test for treatment effect under generalized linear models and covariate-adaptive randomization. For a large class of covariate-adaptive randomization methods, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and derive the conditions under which the test is conservative, valid, or anti-conservative. Several commonly used generalized linear models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression, are discussed in detail. An adjustment method is also proposed to achieve a valid size based on the asymptotic results. Numerical studies confirm the theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adjustment method.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1211
Author(s):  
Li-Te Lin ◽  
Kuan-Hao Tsui

The relationship between serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEA-S) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels has not been fully established. Therefore, we performed a large-scale cross-sectional study to investigate the association between serum DHEA-S and AMH levels. The study included a total of 2155 infertile women aged 20 to 46 years who were divided into four quartile groups (Q1 to Q4) based on serum DHEA-S levels. We found that there was a weak positive association between serum DHEA-S and AMH levels in infertile women (r = 0.190, p < 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, serum DHEA-S levels positively correlated with serum AMH levels in infertile women (β = 0.103, p < 0.001). Infertile women in the highest DHEA-S quartile category (Q4) showed significantly higher serum AMH levels (p < 0.001) compared with women in the lowest DHEA-S quartile category (Q1). The serum AMH levels significantly increased across increasing DHEA-S quartile categories in infertile women (p = 0.014) using generalized linear models after adjustment for potential confounders. Our data show that serum DHEA-S levels are positively associated with serum AMH levels.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-112
Author(s):  
Richard Larouche ◽  
Nimesh Patel ◽  
Jennifer L. Copeland

The role of infrastructure in encouraging transportation cycling in smaller cities with a low prevalence of cycling remains unclear. To investigate the relationship between the presence of infrastructure and transportation cycling in a small city (Lethbridge, AB, Canada), we interviewed 246 adults along a recently-constructed bicycle boulevard and two comparison streets with no recent changes in cycling infrastructure. One comparison street had a separate multi-use path and the other had no cycling infrastructure. Questions addressed time spent cycling in the past week and 2 years prior and potential socio-demographic and psychosocial correlates of cycling, including safety concerns. Finally, we asked participants what could be done to make cycling safer and more attractive. We examined predictors of cycling using gender-stratified generalized linear models. Women interviewed along the street with a separate path reported cycling more than women on the other streets. A more favorable attitude towards cycling and greater habit strength were associated with more cycling in both men and women. Qualitative data revealed generally positive views about the bicycle boulevard, a need for education about sharing the road and for better cycling infrastructure in general. Our results suggest that, even in smaller cities, cycling infrastructure may encourage cycling, especially among women.


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