scholarly journals Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models: A case study from the west of Ireland

2002 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 10-1-10-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard E. Chandler ◽  
Howard S. Wheater
1986 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Ó Cearbhaill ◽  
S. Ó Cinnèide

Cities ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Collins ◽  
Frances Fahy
Keyword(s):  
The West ◽  

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 867-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Kearns ◽  
Matt D. Stevenson ◽  
Kostas Triantafyllopoulos ◽  
Andrea Manca

Background. Parametric modeling of survival data is important, and reimbursement decisions may depend on the selected distribution. Accurate predictions require sufficiently flexible models to describe adequately the temporal evolution of the hazard function. A rich class of models is available among the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs) and its extensions, but these models are rarely applied to survival data. This article describes the theoretical properties of these more flexible models and compares their performance to standard survival models in a reproducible case study. Methods. We describe how survival data may be analyzed with GLMs and their extensions: fractional polynomials, spline models, generalized additive models, generalized linear mixed (frailty) models, and dynamic survival models. For each, we provide a comparison of the strengths and limitations of these approaches. For the case study, we compare within-sample fit, the plausibility of extrapolations, and extrapolation performance based on data splitting. Results. Viewing standard survival models as GLMs shows that many impose a restrictive assumption of linearity. For the case study, GLMs provided better within-sample fit and more plausible extrapolations. However, they did not improve extrapolation performance. We also provide guidance to aid in choosing between the different approaches based on GLMs and their extensions. Conclusions. The use of GLMs for parametric survival analysis can outperform standard parametric survival models, although the improvements were modest in our case study. This approach is currently seldom used. We provide guidance on both implementing these models and choosing between them. The reproducible case study will help to increase uptake of these models.


Humanities ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
John B. Roney

This study focuses on the cultural heritage of artisan coastal fishing in the west of Ireland in the 19th century. The town and port of Dingle, County Kerry, offers an important case study on the progress of local development and changing British policies. While there was clearly an abundance of fish, the poverty and the lack of capital for improvements in ports, vessels, gear, education, and transportation, left the fishing industry underdeveloped until well after the 1890s. In addition, a growing rift developed between the traditional farmer-fishermen and the new middle-class capitalist companies. After several royal commissions examined the fishing industry, the leading ichthyologists of the day concluded that an abundance of fish could be taken without fear of overfishing. The utilitarian economic principle became dominant, changing the previous non-interventionist policies. In the end, there was little concern for sustainability. The mismanagement of commercial fishing in the west of Ireland stemmed from a series of factors, including the increasing need for protein in Britain, technological developments that allowed greater fish catch, and the Conservative government’s political policy of ‘constructive unionism’ that attempted to develop the Irish economy to preserve the kingdom.


2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4600-4617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Ambrosino ◽  
Richard E. Chandler ◽  
Martin C. Todd

Southern Africa is characterized by a high degree of rainfall variability, affecting agriculture and hydrology, among other sectors. This paper aims to investigate such variability and to identify stable relationships with its potential drivers in the climate system; such relationships may be used as the basis for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs, for example. The analysis uses generalized linear models (GLMs). The GLMs are fitted to twentieth-century observational data for the period 1957–2006 to characterize the dependence of monthly precipitation occurrences and amounts upon the climate indicators of interest. In contrast with many of the analyses that have previously been used to investigate controls on precipitation in the region, GLMs allow for the investigation of the relationships between different components of the climate system (geographical and climatic drivers) simultaneously. Six climate factors were found to drive part of the rainfall variability in the region, and their modeled effect upon rainfall occurrences and amounts resulted in general agreement with previous studies. Among the retained indices, relative humidity and El Niño accounted for the highest degree of explained variability. The location and intensity of the jet stream were also found to have a statistically significant and physically meaningful effect upon rainfall variability.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliana Costa e Silva ◽  
Aldina Correia ◽  
Isabel Cristina Lopes

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