A GEFA Assessment of Observed Global Ocean Influence on U.S. Precipitation Variability: Attribution to Regional SST Variability Modes

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 693-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yafang Zhong ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Michael Notaro
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the observed influence of the global ocean on U.S. precipitation variability using the method of Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA), which enables an unambiguous attribution of the influence from multiple ocean basins within a unified framework. The GEFA assessment based on observations for 1950–99 suggests that the tropical Pacific SST variability has the greatest consequence for U.S. precipitation, as both ENSO and meridional modes are associated with notable responses in seasonal mean precipitation. The anomalously cold tropical Indian Ocean is a good indicator for U.S. dry conditions during spring and late winter. The impact of North Pacific SST variability is detected in springtime precipitation, yet it is overshadowed by that of the tropical Indo-Pacific on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Tropical Atlantic forcing of U.S. precipitation appears to be most effective in winter, whereas the northern Atlantic forcing is likely more important during spring and summer. Global ocean influence on U.S. precipitation is found to be most significant in winter, explaining over 20% of the precipitation variability in the Southwest and southern Great Plains throughout the cold seasons and in the northern Great Plains and northeast United States during late winter. The Southwest and southern Great Plains is likely the region that is most susceptible to oceanic influence, primarily to the forcing of the tropical Indo-Pacific. The Pacific Northwest is among the regions that may experience the least oceanic influence as far as precipitation variability is concerned.

scholarly journals Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Pluvial Years in the United States Great Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul X. Flanagan ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara ◽  
Jason C. Furtado ◽  
Xiangming Xiao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
The Public ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies over the southwestern United States with wind anomalies consistent with frequent synoptic wave passages along a southward-shifted North Pacific jet. The NGP pattern during pluvial periods, by contrast, depicts anomalously low heights in the northwestern United States and an anomalously extended Pacific jet. Analysis of daily heavy precipitation events reveals the key drivers for these pluvial events, namely, an east–west height gradient and associated stronger poleward moisture fluxes. Therefore, the results show that pluvial years over the GP are likely driven by synoptic-scale processes rather than by anomalous seasonal precipitation driven by longer time-scale features. Overall, the results present a possible pathway to predicting the occurrence of pluvial years over the GP and understanding the causes of GP precipitation variability, potentially mitigating the threats of water scarcity and excesses for the public and agricultural sectors.

The Impact of Affective Heuristics in Decision-Making Regarding the Implementation of Prescribed Fire on Private Rangelands in the Southern Great Plains, USA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
J. Kelly Hoffman ◽  
R. Patrick Bixler ◽  
Morgan L. Treadwell ◽  
Lars G. Coleman ◽  
Thomas W. McDaniel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Ten Years of Aerosol Effects on Single-Layer Overcast Clouds over the US Southern Great Plains and the China Loess Plateau

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongru Yan ◽  
Tianhe Wang
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Aerosol Loading ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Using almost 10 years of observations of clouds and aerosols from the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory and the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University (SACOL) in China, the impact of aerosols on single-layer overcast clouds over continental land for different regimes were investigated. Atmospheric conditions at the two sites were first compared in an attempt to isolate the influence of aerosols on cloud properties from dynamic and thermodynamic influences. Cloud types and amounts are similar at the two sites. The dominant aerosol types at the SGP and SACOL sites are sulphate and dust, respectively, with greater aerosol optical depths (AODs) and absorption at the SACOL site. Aerosol first indirect effect (FIE) ranges from 0.021 to 0.152 and from −0.078 to 0.047 at the SGP and SACOL sites, respectively, when using the AOD below cloud base as CCN proxy. Although differences exist, the influence of meteorological conditions on the FIE at the two sites is consistent. FIEs are easily detected under descending motion and dry condition. The FIE at the SGP site is larger than that at the SACOL site, which suggests that the cloud albedo effect is more sensitive under relatively cleaner atmospheric conditions and the dominating aerosol at the SACOL site has less hygroscopicity. The radiative forcing of the FIE over the SGP site is −3.2 W m−2 for each 0.05 increment in FIE. Cloud durations generally prolong as aerosol loading increases, which is consistent with the hypothesis of the aerosol second indirect effect. The negative relationship between cloud duration time and aerosol loading when aerosol loading reaches a large value further might suggest a semidirect effect.

scholarly journals Impacts of Crop Variety and Time of Inoculation on the Susceptibility and Tolerance of Winter Wheat to Wheat streak mosaic virus

Plant Disease ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 98 (8) ◽  
pp. 1060-1065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Miller ◽  
F. Menalled ◽  
D. Ito ◽  
M. Moffet ◽  
M. Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Mosaic Virus ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Yield Losses ◽  
South Central ◽  
The Impact

Plant genotype, age, size, and environmental factors can modify susceptibility and tolerance to disease. Understanding the individual and combined impacts of these factors is needed to define improved disease management strategies. In the case of Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) in winter wheat, yield losses and plant susceptibility have been found to be greatest when the crop is exposed to the virus in the fall in the central and southern Great Plains. However, the seasonal dynamics of disease risk may be different in the northern Great Plains, a region characterized by a relatively cooler fall conditions, because temperature is known to modify plant–virus interactions. In a 2-year field study conducted in south-central Montana, we compared the impact of fall and spring WSMV inoculations on the susceptibility, tolerance, yield, and grain quality of 10 winter wheat varieties. Contrary to previous studies, resistance and yields were lower in the spring than in the fall inoculation. In all, 5 to 7% of fall-inoculated wheat plants were infected with WSMV and yields were often similar to uninoculated controls. Spring inoculation resulted in 45 to 57% infection and yields that were 15 to 32% lower than controls. Although all varieties were similarly susceptible to WSMV, variations in tolerance (i.e., yield losses following exposure to the virus) were observed. These results support observations that disease risk and impacts differ across the Great Plains. Possible mechanisms include variation in climate and in the genetic composition of winter wheat and WSMV across the region.

Impact of tillage on field pea following spring wheat

2009 ◽  
Vol 89 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. M. Carr ◽  
G. B. Martin ◽  
R. D. Horsley
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Seed Yield ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Field Pea ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
N Fixation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Tillage is being reduced in semiarid regions. The impact of changing tillage practices on field pea (Pisum sativum L.) performance has not been considered in a major pea-producing area within the US northern Great Plains. A study was conducted from 2000 through 2005 to determine how field pea performance compared following spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in clean-till (CT), reduced-till (RT), and no-till (NT) systems arranged in a randomized complete block at Dickinson in southwestern North Dakota. Seed yield increased over 1600 kg ha-1 in 2000 and almost 400 kg ha-1 in 2003 under NT compared with CT, and by 960 kg ha-1 in 2000 under NT compared with RT (P < 0.05). Differences in seed yield were not detected between tillage systems in other years. Plant establishment was improved as tillage was reduced, averaging 66 plants m-2 under NT and RT compared with 60 plants m-2 under CT management. The soil water conservation that can occur after adopting NT may explain the increased seed yields that occurred in some years. These results suggest that field pea seed yield can be increased by eliminating tillage in semiarid areas of the US northern Great Plains, particularly when dry conditions develop and persist. Key words: Zero tillage, field pea, cropping system, N-fixation, legume

Low-Dose Glyphosate Does Not Control Annual Bromes in the Northern Great Plains

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 334-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin K. Espeland ◽  
Robert Kilian
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Downy Brome ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Herbicide Application ◽  
Nontarget Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fall Application

AbstractAnnual bromes (downy brome and Japanese brome) have been shown to decrease perennial grass forage production and alter ecosystem functions in northern Great Plains rangelands. Large-scale chemical control might be a method for increasing rangeland forage production. Although fall application has been shown to be the most effective and least likely to impact co-occurring native species, spring germination of downy brome may reduce the efficacy of fall-only herbicide application. We assessed the impact of a low glyphosate dose rate (210 g ha−1) applied to rangelands in fall or in fall and spring on nontarget species and on annual brome abundance at two sites in eastern Montana over 2 yr. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) nontarget effects are greater with spring herbicide application, (2) fall and spring herbicide application are necessary for effective downy brome control, and (3) fall herbicide application is sufficient to control Japanese brome. Few nontarget effects occurred; two dicotyledonous species exhibited small increases in response to herbicide. We found that that a single fall application reduced downy brome cover and seed bank density, but after the second fall application in the following year, downy brome did not continue to show a response to herbicide. After 2 yr of fall herbicide application, Japanese brome had denser seed banks in plots where herbicide had been applied. Blanket glyphosate application on rangelands is an unreliable method for controlling annual brome invasions in the northern Great Plains.

scholarly journals Assimilating Surface Mesonet Observations with the EnKF to Improve Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation on 29 May 2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (9) ◽  
pp. 3700-3725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan A. Sobash ◽  
David J. Stensrud
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Moisture Profile ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Surface Moisture ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surface Observations

Abstract Surface data assimilation (DA) has the potential to improve forecasts of convection initiation (CI) and short-term forecasts of convective evolution. Since the processes driving CI occur on scales inadequately observed by conventional observation networks, mesoscale surface networks could be especially beneficial given their higher temporal and spatial resolution. This work aims to assess the impact of high-frequency assimilation of mesonet surface DA on ensemble forecasts of CI initialized with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses of the 29 May 2012 convective event over the southern Great Plains. Mesonet and conventional surface observations were assimilated every 5 min for 3 h from 1800 to 2100 UTC and 3-h ensemble forecasts were produced. Forecasts of CI timing and location were improved by assimilating the surface datasets in comparison to experiments where mesonet data were withheld. This primarily occurred due to a more accurate representation of the boundary layer moisture profile across the domain, especially in the vicinity of a dryline and stationary boundary. Ensemble forecasts produced by assimilating surface observations at hourly intervals, instead of every 5 min, showed only minor improvements in CI. The 5-min assimilation of mesonet data improved forecasts of the placement and timing of CI for this particular event due to the ability of mesonet data to capture rapidly evolving mesoscale features and to constrain model biases, particularly surface moisture errors, during the cycling period.

scholarly journals Warm Season Variations in the Low-Level Circulation and Precipitation over the Central United States in Observations, AMIP Simulations, and Idealized SST Experiments

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5401-5420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Weaver ◽  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Hailan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Sst Variability

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) linkages to central U.S. low-level circulation and precipitation variability are investigated from the perspective of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and recurring modes of SST variability. The observed and simulated links are first examined via GPLLJ index regressions to precipitation, SST, and large-scale circulation fields in the NCEP–NCAR and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalyses, and NASA’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP1) and Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3) ensemble mean Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations for the 1949–2002 (1979–2002 for NARR) period. Characteristics of the low-level circulation and its related precipitation are further examined in the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group idealized climate model simulations (NSIPP1 and CCM3) forced with varying polarities of recurring modes of SST variability. It is found that the observed and simulated correlations of the GPLLJ index to Atlantic and Pacific SST, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and Great Plains precipitation variability for 1949–2002 are robust during the July–September (JAS) season and show connections to a distinct global-scale SST variability pattern, one similar to that used in forcing the NSIPP1 and CCM3 idealized simulations, and a subtropical Atlantic-based sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly with a maximum over the Gulf of Mexico. The idealized simulations demonstrate that a warm Pacific and/or a cold Atlantic are influential over regional hydroclimate features including the monthly preference for maximum GPLLJ and precipitation in the seasonal cycle. Furthermore, it appears that the regional expression of globally derived SST variability is important for generating an anomalous atmospheric low-level response of consequence to the GPLLJ, especially when the SST anomaly is positioned over a regional maximum in climatological SST, and in this case the Western Hemisphere warm pool.

scholarly journals Drought and Pluvial Dipole Events within the Great Plains of the United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (9) ◽  
pp. 1886-1898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan Christian ◽  
Katarina Christian ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
The United States ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
One Year ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to quantify dipole events (a drought year followed by a pluvial year) for various spatial scales including the nine Oklahoma climate divisions and the author-defined regions of the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP), High Plains (HP), and Northern Great Plains (NGP). Analyses revealed that, on average, over twice as many standard deviation (STDEV) dipoles existed in the latter half of the dataset (1955–2013) relative to the first half (1896–1954), suggesting that dramatic increases in precipitation from one year to the next within the Oklahoma climate divisions are increasing with time. For the larger regions within the Great Plains of the United States, the percent chance of a significant pluvial year following a significant drought year was approximately 25% of the time for the SGP and NGP and approximately 16% of the time for the HP. The STDEV dipole analyses further revealed that the frequency of dipoles was consistent between the first and second half of the dataset for the NGP and HP but was increasing with time in the SGP. The temporal periods of anomalous precipitation during relative pluvial years within the STDEV dipole events were unique for each region whereby October occurred most frequently (70%) within the SGP, September occurred most frequently (60%) within the HP, and May occurred most frequently (62%) within the NGP.

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