scholarly journals Assessing Predictability of Cotton Yields in the Southeastern United States Based on Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Temperatures

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillermo A. Baigorria ◽  
James W. Hansen ◽  
Neil Ward ◽  
James W. Jones ◽  
James J. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Skill Scores

Abstract The potential to predict cotton yields up to one month before planting in the southeastern United States is assessed in this research. To do this, regional atmospheric variables that are related to historic summer rainfall and cotton yields were identified. The use of simulations of those variables from a global circulation model (GCM) for estimating cotton yields was evaluated. The authors analyzed detrended cotton yields (1970–2004) from 48 counties in Alabama and Georgia, monthly rainfall from 53 weather stations, monthly reanalysis data of 850- and 200-hPa winds and surface temperatures over the southeast U.S. region, and monthly predictions of the same variables from the ECHAM 4.5 GCM. Using the reanalysis climate data, it was found that meridional wind fields and surface temperatures around the Southeast were significantly correlated with county cotton yields (explaining up to 52% of the interannual variability of observed yields), and with rainfall over most of the region, especially during April and July. The tendency for cotton yields to be lower during years with atmospheric circulation patterns that favor higher humidity and rainfall is consistent with increased incidence of disease in cotton during flowering and harvest periods under wet conditions. Cross-validated yield estimations based on ECHAM retrospective simulations of wind and temperature fields forced by observed SSTs showed significant predictability skill (up to 55% and 60% hit skill scores based on terciles and averages, respectively). It is concluded that there is potential to predict cotton yields in the Southeast by using variables that are forecast by numerical climate models.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Giuseppe Mendicino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.</p>

scholarly journals Effects of climate change on agriculture water demand in lower Pak Phanang river basin, southern part of Thailand

2018 ◽  
Vol 192 ◽  
pp. 03043
Author(s):  
Natapon Kaewthong ◽  
Pakorn Ditthakit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Baseline Climate ◽  
Agriculture Water

The aim of the research is to analyse the effects on agricultural water demand in the Lower Pak Phanang River Basin area due to climate change. The climate data used in the analysis were rainfall, maximum, minimum, and average temperatures. The climate datasets were obtained from statistical downscaling of global circulation model under the CMIP5 project by means of bias correction with Optimizing Quantile Mapping implemented by the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute. To determine agriculture water demand, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Hargreaves method was calculated for both baseline climate data (1987-2015) and forecasted climate data in 2038. For agriculture water demand in the Pak Phanang river basin, we considered paddy field, palm oil, rubber, grapefruit, orchard, vegetable, ruzy and biennial crop, based on land use data of the Land Development Department of Thailand in 2012. The results showed that forecasted agriculture water demand in 2038 with existing land use data in 2012 will be increased with the average of 18.9% or 61.78 MCM as compared to baseline climate condition. Both water demand and supply management measures would be suitably prepared before facing unexpected situation.

scholarly journals Atmospheric dynamics on tidally locked Earth-like planets in the habitable zone of an M dwarf star

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (S299) ◽  
pp. 376-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludmila Carone ◽  
Rony Keppens ◽  
Leen Decin
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Return Flow ◽  
Parameter Study ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Dwarf Star ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
M Dwarf

AbstractWe investigated the large scale atmospheric circulation of Gl581g, a potentially habitable planet around an M dwarf star, using an idealized dry global circulation model (GCM) with simplified thermal forcing as a first step towards a systematic extended parameter study. The results are compared with the work of Joshi et al. (1997) who investigated a tidally-locked habitable Earth analogue with less than half the rotation period of Gl581g. The extent, form and strength of the atmospheric circulation in each model generally agree with each other, even though the models differ in key parameters such as planetary radius, surface gravity, forcing scheme and rotation period. The substellar point is associated with an uprising direct circulation-branch of a Hadley-like cell with return flow over the poles. It is compelling to assume that the substellar point of a tidally locked terrestrial exoplanet behaves dynamically like the Earth's tropic associated with clouds and precipitation, making it an ideal target for habitability.

scholarly journals Assessing Maize and Peanut Yield Simulations with Various Seasonal Climate Data in the Southeastern United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 592-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Shin ◽  
G. A. Baigorria ◽  
Y-K. Lim ◽  
S. Cocke ◽  
T. E. LaRow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Dry Spell

Abstract A comprehensive evaluation of crop yield simulations with various seasonal climate data is performed to improve the current practice of crop yield projections. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based historical data are commonly used to predict the upcoming season crop yields over the southeastern United States. In this study, eight different seasonal climate datasets are generated using the combinations of two global models, a regional model, and a statistical downscaling technique. One of the global models and the regional model are run with two different convective schemes. These datasets are linked to maize and peanut dynamic models to assess their impacts on crop yield simulations and are then compared with the ENSO-based approach. Improvement of crop yield simulations with the climate model data is varying, depending on the model configuration and the crop type. Although using the global climate model data directly provides no improvement, the dynamically and statistically downscaled data show increased skill in the crop yield simulations. A statistically downscaled operational seasonal climate model forecast shows statistically significant (at the 5% level) interannual predictability in the peanut yield simulation. Since the yield amount simulated by the dynamical crop model is highly sensitive to wet/dry spell sequences (water stress) during the growing season, fidelity in simulating the precipitation variability is essential.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling and scenario construction of precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden

2004 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maj-Lena Linderson ◽  
Christine Achberger ◽  
Deliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Sweden ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Projected Changes

Statistical downscaling models for precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in the future Scanian precipitation climate due to projected changes in the atmospheric composition. The models are based on multiple linear regression, linking large-scale predictors at monthly time resolution to regional statistics of daily precipitation on a monthly basis. To account for spatial precipitation variability within the area, the precipitation statistics were derived for different regions in Scania. The final downscaling models, developed for different regions and seasons, use atmospheric circulation, large-scale humidity and precipitation as predictors. Among the precipitation statistics examined, only the models for estimating the mean precipitation and the frequency of wet days were skilful. Based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model 1 (CGCM1), a future scenario of these two statistics was created. The downscaled scenario shows a significant increase of the annual mean precipitation by about 10% and a slight decrease in the frequency of wet days, indicating an increase in the precipitation amounts as well as in the precipitation intensity. The main increase of precipitation amounts and intensity occur during winter, while the summer precipitation amounts decrease slightly. The seasonal changes found in precipitation are likely attributed to changes in the westerly flow of the atmospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Forcing mechanisms of the terdiurnal tide

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 15725-15742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friederike Lilienthal ◽  
Christoph Jacobi ◽  
Christoph Geißler
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Tidal Interactions ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Abstract. Using a nonlinear mechanistic global circulation model we analyze the migrating terdiurnal tide in the middle atmosphere with respect to its possible forcing mechanisms, i.e., the absorption of solar radiation in the water vapor and ozone band, nonlinear tidal interactions, and gravity wave–tide interactions. In comparison to the forcing mechanisms of diurnal and semidiurnal tides, these terdiurnal forcings are less well understood and there are contradictory opinions about their respective relevance. In our simulations we remove the wave number 3 pattern for each forcing individually and analyze the remaining tidal wind and temperature fields. We find that the direct solar forcing is dominant and explains most of the migrating terdiurnal tide's amplitude. Nonlinear interactions due to other tides or gravity waves are most important during local winter. Further analyses show that the nonlinear forcings are locally counteracting the solar forcing due to destructive interferences. Therefore, tidal amplitudes can become even larger for simulations with removed nonlinear forcings.

scholarly journals Forcing Mechanisms of the Terdiurnal Tide

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friederike Lilienthal ◽  
Christoph Jacobi ◽  
Christoph Geißler
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Nonlinear Interactions ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Tidal Interactions ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Abstract. Using a nonlinear mechanistic global circulation model we analyze the migrating terdiurnal tide in the middle atmosphere with respect to its possible forcing mechanisms, i.e. the absorption of solar radiation in the water vapor and ozone band, nonlinear tidal interactions, and gravity wave-tide interactions. In comparison to the forcing mechanisms of diurnal and semidiurnal tides, these terdiurnal forcings are less well understood and there are contradictory opinions about their respective relevance. In our simulations we remove the wavenumber 3 pattern for each forcing individually and analyze the remaining tidal wind and temperature fields. We find that the direct solar forcing is dominant and explains most of the migrating terdiurnal tide's amplitude. Nonlinear interactions due to other tides or gravity waves are most important during local winter. Further analyses show that the nonlinear forcings are locally counteracting the solar forcing due to destructive interferences. Therefore, tidal amplitudes can become even larger for simulations with removed nonlinear forcings.

scholarly journals Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius)

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer N. Archis ◽  
Christopher Akcali ◽  
Bryan L. Stuart ◽  
David Kikuchi ◽  
Amanda J. Chunco
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Species Distribution Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Coral Snake ◽  
Distribution Modeling

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of ‘current’ climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950–2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius, and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001–2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950–2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

scholarly journals Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 8841-8874 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Beck ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Urban Sewage ◽  
Empirical Distributions ◽  
Global Circulation

Abstract. Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

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