Severe wind hazard assessment: tropical cyclone scenarios for coastal Western Australian communities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.C. Arthur ◽  
S. Gray ◽  
M. Wehner ◽  
S. Martin ◽  
M. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Western Australian

scholarly journals Comments on “Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard for Darwin: Comparison with Two Other Locations and the Australian Wind-Loading Code”

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce A. Harper ◽  
John D. Holmes ◽  
Jeffrey D. Kepert ◽  
Luciano B. Mason ◽  
Peter J. Vickery
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Loading ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Climatological Data ◽  
Current Location ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Wind Actions ◽  
Current Region ◽  
A Site ◽  
The City

AbstractCook and Nicholls recently argued in this journal that the city of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, should be located in wind region D rather than in the current region C in the Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 1170.2 wind actions standard, in which region D has significantly higher risk. These comments critically examine the methods used by Cook and Nicholls and find serious flaws in them, sufficient to invalidate their conclusions. Specific flaws include 1) invalid assumptions in their analysis method, including that cyclones are assumed to be at the maximum intensity along their entire path across the sampling circle even after they have crossed extensive land areas; 2) a lack of verification that the simulated cyclone tracks are consistent with the known climatological data and in particular that the annual rate of simulated cyclones at each station greatly exceeds the numbers recorded for the entire Australian region; and 3) the apparent omission of key cyclones when comparing the risk at Darwin with two other locations. It is shown here that the number of cyclones that have affected Port Hedland (Western Australia), a site in Australia’s region D, greatly exceeds the number that have influenced Darwin over the same period for any chosen threshold of intensity. Analysis of the recorded gusts from anemometers at Port Hedland and Darwin that is presented here further supports this result. On the basis of this evidence, the authors conclude that Darwin’s tropical cyclone wind risk is adequately described by its current location in region C.

Estimation of the Wind Hazard in Tropical Cyclone Regions

1988 ◽  
pp. 709-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter N. Georgiou ◽  
Alan G. Davenport
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Hazard

scholarly journals On the Use of Ensemble Predictions for Parametric Typhoon Insurance

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kelvin S. Ng ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch ◽  
Qian Ye ◽  
Wenwen Ying ◽  
Haoran Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Trigger Points ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Post Disaster

Parametric typhoon insurances are an increasingly used financial tool to mitigate the enormous impact of tropical cyclones, as they can quickly distribute much-needed resources, e.g., for post-disaster recovery. In order to optimise the reliability and efficiency of parametric insurance, it is essential to have well-defined trigger points for any post-disaster payout. This requires a robust localised hazard assessment for a given region. However, due to the rarity of severe, landfalling tropical cyclones, it is difficult to obtain a robust hazard assessment based on historical observations. A recent approach makes use of unrealised, high impact tropical cyclones from state-of-the-art ensemble prediction systems to build a physically consistent event set, which would be equivalent to about 10,000 years of observations. In this study, we demonstrate that (1) alternative trigger points of parametric typhoon insurance can be constructed from a local perspective and the added value of such trigger points can be analysed by comparing with an experimental set-up informed by current practice; (2) the estimation of the occurrence of tropical cyclone-related losses on the provincial level can be improved. We further discuss the potential future development of a general tropical cyclone compound parametric insurance.

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