scholarly journals Logic tree approach for probabilistic typhoon wind hazard assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 607-617
Author(s):  
Young-Sun Choun ◽  
Min-Kyu Kim
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Wind Hazard ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Typhoon Wind

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (PTHA) AND PTHA-BASED TSUNAMI SCENARIO AT A PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU

2018 ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Naoto Kihara ◽  
Hideki Kaida ◽  
Tatsuto Kimura ◽  
Naoki Fujii ◽  
Keiichi Iizuka
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tree Approach

When planning tsunami disaster mitigation and designing important infrastructure from the viewpoint of tsunami resistance in coastal areas, the scale and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future are important information. On the other hand, there are large uncertainties in predicting future tsunamis, and thus it is difficult to predict a future tsunami correctly. The technology of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been proposed to evaluate the relationship between the height and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future. To consider the uncertainties of the prediction in the PTHA, the logic-tree approach is often adopted. In this approach, both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are considered systematically. The epistemic uncertainties are caused by lack of knowledge and the aleatory uncertainties are variabilities due to natural randomness. In the logic-tree approach, the epistemic uncertainties are expressed by tree branches and the aleatory uncertainties are expressed by the probabilistic density functions of predicted tsunami heights. By carrying out PTHA, we can obtain a hazard curve, which expresses the relationship between the tsunami height and annual frequency of exceedance. Recently, methodologies by which PTHA-based-tsunami-scenarios are determined have been proposed. By using tsunami scenarios, detailed inundation processes and patterns can be evaluated. In this study, we apply the technologies of PTHA to the pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan. Then, we determine PTHA-based tsunami scenarios, that overflow a seawall constructed at the target coast and can be used for the evaluation of inundation processes.

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

2007 ◽  
Vol 164 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 577-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadashi Annaka ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Tsutomu Sakakiyama ◽  
Ken Yanagisawa ◽  
Nobuo Shuto
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tree Approach

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach – Patna district (India)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 2097-2115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panjamani Anbazhagan ◽  
Ketan Bajaj ◽  
Karanpreet Matharu ◽  
Sayed S. R. Moustafa ◽  
Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Incremental Method ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Hazard Response ◽  
Tree Approach

Abstract. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and study area (SA) distribution for the Patna district are presented considering both the classical and zoneless approaches through a logic tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude is calculated using three methods, namely the incremental method, Kijko method, and regional rupture characteristics approach. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are selected by carrying out an “efficacy test” using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 to 0.30 g from the southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years.

scholarly journals The use of Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard assessment in the U.K.

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. W. Musson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Seismicity Model

The input required for a seismic hazard study using conventional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment (PSHA) methods can also be used for probabilistic analysis of hazard using Monte Carlo simulation methods. This technique is very flexible, and seems to be under-represented in the literature. It is very easy to modify the form of the seismicity model used, for example, to introduce non-Poissonian behaviour, without extensive reprogramming. Uncertainty in input parameters can also be modelled very flexibly - for example, by the use of a standard deviation rather than by the discrete branches of a logic tree. In addition (and this advantage is perhaps not as trivial as it may sound) the simplicity of the method means that its principles can be grasped by the layman, which is useful when results have to be explained to people outside the seismological/engineering communities, such as planners and politicians. In this paper, some examples of the Monte Carlo method in action are shown in the context of a low to moderate seismicity area: the United Kingdom.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach – Patna District (India)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panjamani Anbazhagan ◽  
Ketan Bajaj ◽  
Karanpreet Matharu ◽  
Sayed S. R. Moustafa ◽  
Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Incremental Method ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Hazard Response ◽  
Frame Work ◽  
Tree Approach

Abstract. PGA and SA distribution for Patna district is presented considering both classical and zoneless approach through logic tree frame work to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude was calculated using three methods namely incremental method, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics approach. Best suitable GMPE was selected by carrying out efficacy test using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 g to 0.30 g from southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years.

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