scholarly journals Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nir Jaimovich ◽  
Henry E. Siu
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Jobless Recoveries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Job Polarization

Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.

scholarly journals WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE? A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF JOBLESS RECOVERIES

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 709-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristie M. Engemann ◽  
Michael T. Owyang
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Postwar Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Jobless Recoveries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
The Business Cycle

During the typical recovery from U.S. postwar period economic downturns, employment recovers to its prerecession level within months of the output trough. However, during the past two recoveries, employment has taken up to three years to achieve its prerecession benchmark. We propose a formal empirical model of business cycles with recovery periods to demonstrate that the past two recoveries have been statistically different from previous experiences. We find that this difference can be attributed to a shift in the speed of transition between business cycle regimes. Moreover, we find this shift results from both durable and nondurable manufacturing sectors losing their cyclical characteristics. We argue that this finding of acyclicality in post-1980 manufacturing sectors is consistent with previous hypotheses (e.g., improved inventory management) regarding the reduction in macroeconomic volatility over the same period. These results suggest a link between the two phenomena, which have heretofore been studied separately.

scholarly journals Job Polarization and Structural Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZsÓfia L. Bárány ◽  
Christian Siegel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Wage ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Relative Wages ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Polarization

We document that job polarization—contrary to the consensus— has started as early as the 1950s in the United States: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low- and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably well not only in matching the evolution of sectoral employment, but also of relative wages over the past 50 years. (JEL E24, J21, J22, J24, J31)

Trust, But Verify: The Road Ahead

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
More Care

Taking stock of the past fifteen years in monetary policy leads to some conclusions and suggestions for reform. Contrary to the claims of some observers, price stability remains an unassailable goal of central banks. Reforms are needed in their governance, however. In particular, legislation ought to include more directives to make clear the conditional relationship between government and the central bank. Unconventional central bank policies are no longer so unconventional. While they should be included in the toolkit of policy instruments, they should be used with more care. Some central banks have overreached and have confused the need to put a floor on economic downturns with the need for economic growth to rise to levels deemed normal. Data dependence as a policy stance reflects one of the biggest failures of central banking. After more than a decade of explaining the forward-looking nature of monetary policy, a backward-looking perspective seems to dominate policy discussions.

CASE STUDY: From shock absorber to shock transmitter: Determinants of remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-240
Author(s):  
Raju Jan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Shock Absorber ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Past ◽  
Shock Absorbers ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Sub Saharan

Workers’ remittances to developing countries have substantially increased over the past decade, both globally and in sub-Saharan Africa. They have been argued to be shock absorbers, increasing when home economies face economic difficulties and have been shown to alleviate poverty. During economic downturns, however, migrant workers are often the most vulnerable. As migrants lose their incomes or even their jobs, the global scope of the current crisis may turn remittances into a shock transmitter. Faced by this perspective, what can home countries do to shelter themselves? This paper investigates the determinants of remittances in sub-Saharan Africa and suggests some possible policy responses.

Observations of the continuum near the galactic centre

1967 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 405
Author(s):  
F. J. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Galactic Centre ◽  
The Past ◽  
Centre Region ◽  
The Continuum

A continuum survey of the galactic-centre region has been carried out at Parkes at 20 cm wavelength over the areal11= 355° to 5°,b11= -3° to +3° (Kerr and Sinclair 1966, 1967). This is a larger region than has been covered in such surveys in the past. The observations were done as declination scans.

The Origin of the Moon and its Relationship to the Origin of the Solar System

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 133-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold C. Urey
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
The Moon ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Origin Of The Moon

During the last 10 years, the writer has presented evidence indicating that the Moon was captured by the Earth and that the large collisions with its surface occurred within a surprisingly short period of time. These observations have been a continuous preoccupation during the past years and some explanation that seemed physically possible and reasonably probable has been sought.

On The Possibility of an Autonomous History of Modern Southeast Asia

1961 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. W. Small
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Contemporary History ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of

It is generally accepted that history is an element of culture and the historian a member of society, thus, in Croce's aphorism, that the only true history is contemporary history. It follows from this that when there occur great changes in the contemporary scene, there must also be great changes in historiography, that the vision not merely of the present but also of the past must change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document