scholarly journals Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Methods for Dynamic Treatment Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-367
Author(s):  
Gerard J. van den Berg ◽  
Petyo Bonev ◽  
Enno Mammen
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Right Censoring ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Dynamic Selection ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Dynamic Treatment ◽  
Job Finding

We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment benefits as a function of the unemployment duration is modified. Those who were unemployed at the reform date could choose between the old and the new regime. We find that the new regime has a positive average causal effect on the job finding rate.

Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate

2018 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 1631-1665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Jarosch ◽  
Laura Pilossoph
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Statistical Discrimination ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Duration Dependence ◽  
Dynamic Selection ◽  
Job Finding ◽  
Large Decline

Abstract This article models a frictional labour market where employers endogenously discriminate against the long-term unemployed. The estimated model replicates recent experimental evidence which documents that interview invitations for observationally equivalent workers fall sharply as unemployment duration progresses. We use the model to quantitatively assess the consequences of such employer behaviour for job finding rates and long-term unemployment and find only modest effects given the large decline in callbacks. Interviews lost to duration impact individual job finding rates solely if they would have led to jobs. We show that such instances are rare when firms discriminate in anticipation of an ultimately unsuccessful application. Discrimination in callbacks is thus largely a response to dynamic selection, with limited consequences for structural duration dependence and long-term unemployment.

CEO media coverage and corporate investment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weijie Chen ◽  
Yongjie Zhang ◽  
Jingran Zhao ◽  
Gang Hu ◽  
Gaofeng Zou
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Chinese Media ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach ◽  
Behavioral Perspective

We examine how the tone of news articles about CEOs affects corporate investment at the CEOs’ firms. Using unique Chinese media coverage data, we show that positive CEO news articles are significantly associated with increased corporate investment, and the total number of articles does not matter. To establish causality, we use a Granger lead-lag test approach, as well as an instrumental variable approach that uses type of news outlets (state-controlled vs. non-state-controlled). Our identification strategies suggest a positive causal effect of CEO news tone on the level of corporate investment. We further identify two underlying economic mechanisms: CEO overconfidence and investor sentiment. We find that the relation between CEO news tone and corporate investment is mainly driven by the overinvestment aspect of investment inefficiency. Our work contributes to prior literature by examining the effects of specific news types (i.e., CEO coverage) and by highlighting a behavioral perspective underlying corporate investment.

scholarly journals Testing for the Unconfoundedness Assumption Using an Instrumental Assumption

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier de Luna ◽  
Per Johansson
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Nonparametric Identification ◽  
Average Causal Effect

AbstractThe identification of average causal effects of a treatment in observational studies is typically based either on the unconfoundedness assumption (exogeneity of the treatment) or on the availability of an instrument. When available, instruments may also be used to test for the unconfoundedness assumption. In this paper, we present a set of assumptions on an instrumental variable which allows us to test for the unconfoundedness assumption, although they do not necessarily yield nonparametric identification of an average causal effect. We propose a test for the unconfoundedness assumption based on the instrumental assumptions introduced and give conditions under which the test has power. We perform a simulation study and apply the results to a case study where the interest lies in evaluating the effect of job practice on employment.

The Effect of the Disability Insurance Application Decision on the Employment of Denied Applicants

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 267-271
Author(s):  
Mashfiqur R. Khan
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Comparison Group ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Point Reduction ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Social Security Disability ◽  
Application Decision ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) affects the labor supply of applicants through its work discouragement and through human capital deterioration regardless of the ultimate acceptance or denial of the claim. In this paper, I provide an estimate of the causal effect of SSDI application on denied applicants using non-applicants as a comparison group. Exploiting instrumental variable approach, I find that the SSDI causes a 36 percentage point reduction in employment of the denied applicants of ages 50 to 58 in the short run. The loss of potential employment of the denied SSDI applicants is a welfare loss to the society.

scholarly journals The Causal Effect of Depression and Anxiety on Life Satisfaction: An Instrumental Variable Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnar Buason ◽  
Edward Norton ◽  
Paul McNamee ◽  
Edda Bjork Thordardottir ◽  
Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdóttir
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Depression And Anxiety ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

scholarly journals The Causal Effect of Depression and Anxiety on Life Satisfaction: An Instrumental Variable Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnar Buason ◽  
Edward C. Norton ◽  
Paul McNamee ◽  
Edda Bjork Thordardottir ◽  
Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdóttir
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Depression And Anxiety ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

scholarly journals Bilateral labor agreements and the migration of Filipinos: An instrumental variable approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brianna O’Steen
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Null Results ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
The World ◽  
Policy Models ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

Abstract Bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) are preferred policy models for regulating migration by many governments around the world. The Philippines has been a leader in both agreement conclusion and exporting labor. A recent Congressional evocation is pushing bureaucrats and academics alike to investigate this policy strategy for outcomes and effectiveness. The following analysis answers the question “Do BLAs affect the migration outflows of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs)?” using a plausibly exogenous variation to isolate a causal effect. I test for effects of BLAs using two instrumental variables (IVs), such as Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and Formal Alliances, and an original dataset of land-based and sea-based Filipino BLAs and migrant stock in 213 unique areas from 1960 to 2018. I do not find any empirical evidence that these treaties drive migration. However, BLAs have statistically significant effects on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and exports, suggesting other important channels through which these agreements affect economic outcomes. These null results are critically important for policymakers and diplomats because the resources spent on negotiation are wasted if the primary goal is to increase migration.

Estimating the Magnitude of the Relation Between Bullying, E-Bullying, and Suicidal Behaviors Among United States Youth, 2015

Crisis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin S. Kuehn ◽  
Annelise Wagner ◽  
Jennifer Velloza
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Suicide ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Average Causal Effect ◽  
Effects Of Bullying ◽  
Pc Algorithm ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Significant Covariates

Abstract. Background: Suicide is the second leading cause of death among US adolescents aged 12–19 years. Researchers would benefit from a better understanding of the direct effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide to inform intervention work. Aims: To explore the direct and indirect effects of bullying and e-bullying on adolescent suicide attempts (SAs) and to estimate the magnitude of these effects controlling for significant covariates. Method: This study uses data from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS), a nationally representative sample of US high school youth. We quantified the association between bullying and the likelihood of SA, after adjusting for covariates (i.e., sexual orientation, obesity, sleep, etc.) identified with the PC algorithm. Results: Bullying and e-bullying were significantly associated with SA in logistic regression analyses. Bullying had an estimated average causal effect (ACE) of 2.46%, while e-bullying had an ACE of 4.16%. Limitations: Data are cross-sectional and temporal precedence is not known. Conclusion: These findings highlight the strong association between bullying, e-bullying, and SA.

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