scholarly journals Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

2011 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 1146-1154 ◽  
Author(s):  
José G. Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Democratic Elections

scholarly journals Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (42) ◽  
pp. 10624-10629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laia Balcells ◽  
Gerard Torrats-Espinosa
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Democratic Election ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
The Military

This study investigates the consequences of terrorist attacks for political behavior by leveraging a natural experiment in Spain. We study eight attacks against civilians, members of the military, and police officers perpetrated between 1989 and 1997 by Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), a Basque terrorist organization that was active between 1958 and 2011. We use nationally and regionally representative surveys that were being fielded when the attacks occurred to estimate the causal effect of terrorist violence on individuals’ intent to participate in democratic elections as well as on professed support for the incumbent party. We find that both lethal and nonlethal terrorist attacks significantly increase individuals’ intent to participate in a future democratic election. The magnitude of this impact is larger when attacks are directed against civilians than when directed against members of the military or the police. We find no evidence that the attacks change support for the incumbent party. These results suggest that terrorist attacks enhance political engagement of citizens.

Inter-Ethnic Dynamics in the Wake of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the 2015 Baga Massacre

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Belmonte
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
The State ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Far North ◽  
North East

AbstractThis paper investigates the consequences for inter-group conflicts of terrorist attacks. I study the 2015 Baga massacre, a large scale attack conducted by Boko Haram at the far North-East state of Borno, Nigeria, as a quasi-natural experiment and examine a set of attitudes in the aftermath of the event of Christians and Muslims throughout the country. Comparing individuals, outside the region of Borno, interviewed by Afrobarometer immediately after the massacre and those interviewed the days before within same regions and holding fixed a number of individual characteristics, I document that the informational exposure to the event rendered Christians less amiable to neighboring Muslims and Muslims less likely to recognize the legitimacy of the state. Nonetheless, Muslims increased their view of the elections as a device to remove leaders in office, event that took place 2 months later with the election of the challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. My findings indicate that terrorist attacks may generate a relevant and heterogeneous backlash across ethnic groups.

scholarly journals The breakdown of antiracist norms: A natural experiment on hate speech after terrorist attacks

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (37) ◽  
pp. 22800-22804
Author(s):  
Amalia Álvarez-Benjumea ◽  
Fabian Winter
Keyword(s):  
Social Norms ◽  
Field Experiment ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Descriptive Norm ◽  
Attitudinal Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Strong Norm

Terrorist attacks often fuel online hate and increase the expression of xenophobic and antiminority messages. Previous research has focused on the impact of terrorist attacks on prejudiced attitudes toward groups linked to the perpetrators as the cause of this increase. We argue that social norms can contain the expression of prejudice after the attacks. We report the results of a combination of a natural and a laboratory-in-the-field (lab-in-the-field) experiment in which we exploit data collected about the occurrence of two consecutive Islamist terrorist attacks in Germany, the Würzburg and Ansbach attacks, in July 2016. The experiment compares the effect of the terrorist attacks in hate speech toward refugees in contexts where a descriptive norm against the use of hate speech is evidently in place to contexts in which the norm is ambiguous because participants observe antiminority comments. Hate toward refugees, but not toward other minority groups, increased as a result of the attacks only in the absence of a strong norm. These results imply that attitudinal changes due to terrorist attacks are more likely to be voiced if norms erode.

scholarly journals The Wane of Command: Evidence on Drone Strikes and Control within Terrorist Organizations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ANOUK S. RIGTERINK
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Drone Strikes ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

This paper investigates how counterterrorism targeting terrorist leaders affects terrorist attacks. This effect is theoretically ambiguous and depends on whether terrorist groups are modeled as unitary actors or not. The paper exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) “hitting” and “missing” terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone “hit” on their leader compared with after a “miss.” This increase is statistically significant for 3 out of 6 months after a hit, when it ranges between 47.7% and 70.3%. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups and leaders, and the impact of drone hits on the type of attack, terrorist group infighting, and splintering, suggest that principal-agent problems—(new) terrorist leaders struggling to control and discipline their operatives—account for these results better than alternative theoretical explanations.

scholarly journals Xenophobia before and after the Paris 2015 Attacks. Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Jungkunz ◽  
Marc Helbling ◽  
Carsten Schwemmer
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Student Survey ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
German Student ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Migrant Groups ◽  
Do So

In light of ongoing debates that discuss the link between Muslim migration and terrorist attacks in various European cities, this paper investigates how attitudes toward (Muslim) immigrants have been affected by these attacks. We draw on a German student survey conducted immediately before and after the attacks in Paris in November 2015. The experimental vignette design allows us to further differentiate between attitudes toward Syrian migrants from different religious backgrounds. We show that the attitudes towards immigration held by students who identify with conservative parties became more negative after the attacks. Immigrants’ religion also plays an important role depending on whether the issue in question is a social or political one. The attitudes of liberal students are hardly affected. This paper goes beyond existing studies that only measure attitudes in the aftermath of such attacks and focuses on attitudes regarding policy responses to terrorist attacks or attitudes towards immigrants in general. We show that such attacks do not lead to negative attitudes in general; they mostly do so for people who attach great importance to issues of national security. We also see that people differentiate between various migrant groups.

scholarly journals Xenophobia before and after the Paris 2015 attacks: Evidence from a natural experiment

Ethnicities ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Jungkunz ◽  
Marc Helbling ◽  
Carsten Schwemmer
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Student Survey ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
German Student ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Migrant Groups ◽  
Do So

In light of ongoing debates that discuss the link between Muslim migration and terrorist attacks in various European cities, this paper investigates how attitudes toward (Muslim) immigrants have been affected by these attacks. We draw on a German student survey conducted immediately before and after the attacks in Paris in November 2015. The experimental vignette design allows us to further differentiate between attitudes toward Syrian migrants from different religious backgrounds. We show that the attitudes towards immigration held by students who identify with conservative parties became more negative after the attacks. Immigrants’ religion also plays an important role depending on whether the issue in question is a social or political one. The attitudes of liberal students are hardly affected. This paper goes beyond existing studies that measure attitudes only in the aftermath of such attacks and focuses on attitudes regarding policy responses to terrorist attacks or attitudes towards immigrants in general. We show that such attacks do not lead to negative attitudes in general; they mostly do so for people who attach great importance to issues of national security. We also see that people differentiate between various migrant groups.

Electoral Systems in Context

2017 ◽  
pp. 870-900
Author(s):  
Steven L. Taylor ◽  
Matthew S. Shugart
Keyword(s):  
Rare Case ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
District Magnitude ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
Open Versus ◽  
Democratic Elections

Colombia represents a rare case of a political context with a number of electoral system changes over a period of years. It serves as a natural experiment that demonstrates that party systems do react to changes in institutional parameters. There have been uninterrupted democratic elections that allow for long-term comparative study of the effects of electoral reform. From 1974 to 2014, several different basic electoral rules can be observed including single nontransferable vote (SNTV), and the D’Hondt form of party-list proportional representation. Additionally, other factors have changed including a major shift in district magnitude for the election of the Senate, a move from plurality to a two-round system for electing the president, and other areas of change including ballot format and open versus closed lists. Few cases demonstrate as many different areas of electoral study as does Colombia.

scholarly journals Do Islamic State’s Deadly Attacks Disengage, Deter, or Mobilize Supporters?

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 1539-1559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Barceló ◽  
Elena Labzina
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Group Efficacy ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Suggestive Evidence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Unique Dataset

What are the consequences of committing violent attacks for terrorist organizations? Terrorist attacks might broaden the base of supporters by increasing the perceived group efficacy. However, terrorist attacks might also lead its supporters to believe that the organization is excessively violent or involvement may become too dangerous. This article employs a unique dataset with 300,842 observations of 13,321 Twitter accounts linked to the Islamic State (IS), collected during a 127-day period, to empirically investigate the impact of terrorist attacks on the number of the organization’s supporters. By exploiting the exogenous timing of terrorist attacks as a natural experiment, we find that the number of followers of IS-related Twitter accounts significantly reduces in the aftermath of the attacks. Additionally, we provide some suggestive evidence to disentangle two mechanisms: disengagement – a change in supporters’ beliefs – and deterrence – demobilization due to fear. Because we do not find support for the latter, we conclude that the disengagement effect might explain our main result.

scholarly journals The Curious Case of Theresa May and the Public That Did Not Rally: Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps Not Bumps

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
MIRYA R. HOLMAN ◽  
JENNIFER L. MEROLLA ◽  
ELIZABETH J. ZECHMEISTER
Keyword(s):  
Women Leaders ◽  
Women Executives ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Critical Case ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Women In Politics ◽  
Conventional Theory ◽  
The Public ◽  
Theresa May

Terrorist attacks routinely produce rallies for incumbent men in the executive office. With scarce cases, there has been little consideration of terrorism’s consequences for evaluations of sitting women executives. Fusing research on rallies with scholarship on women in politics, we derive a gender-revised framework wherein the public will be less inclined to rally around women when terrorists attack. A critical case is UK Prime Minister Theresa May, a right-leaning incumbent with security experience. Employing a natural experiment, we demonstrate that the public fails to rally after the 2017 Manchester Arena attack. Instead, evaluations of May decrease, with sharp declines among those holding negatives views about women. We further show May’s party loses votes in areas closer to the attack. We then find support for the argument in a multinational test. We conclude that conventional theory on rally events requires revision: women leaders cannot count on rallies following major terrorist attacks.

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