scholarly journals Forecast and Simulation of the Public Opinion on the Public Policy Based on the Markov Model

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Zi Li

Public policy and public opinion directly affect the image of the government, but due to the lack of appropriate monitoring and early warning tools, the government’s handling of credit changes is seriously lagging behind. In response to this problem, this paper integrates the internet, public information, market credit information, and other data, uses hidden Markov models and natural language processing technology, and establishes a modern government public policy and public opinion monitoring and early warning model to evaluate government credit in real time; the government can formulate relevant policies based on the evaluation results to improve the government’s governance capabilities. Empirical analysis shows that, based on the dynamic scoring framework and Markov model, the government credit monitoring and early warning models established, respectively, have 90% of the reference value, and the analysis results have the same reference. This method can effectively predict the trend of hot online public opinion. The subsequent establishment of an online public opinion early warning system and an online public opinion guidance mechanism provided theoretical support.

Author(s):  
Yong Li ◽  
Xiaojun Yang ◽  
Min Zuo ◽  
Qingyu Jin ◽  
Haisheng Li ◽  
...  

The real-time and dissemination characteristics of network information make net-mediated public opinion become more and more important food safety early warning resources, but the data of petabyte (PB) scale growth also bring great difficulties to the research and judgment of network public opinion, especially how to extract the event role of network public opinion from these data and analyze the sentiment tendency of public opinion comment. First, this article takes the public opinion of food safety network as the research point, and a BLSTM-CRF model for automatically marking the role of event is proposed by combining BLSTM and conditional random field organically. Second, the Attention mechanism based on vocabulary in the field of food safety is introduced, the distance-related sequence semantic features are extracted by BLSTM, and the emotional classification of sequence semantic features is realized by using CNN. A kind of Att-BLSTM-CNN model for the analysis of public opinion and emotional tendency in the field of food safety is proposed. Finally, based on the time series, this article combines the role extraction of food safety events and the analysis of emotional tendency and constructs a net-mediated public opinion early warning model in the field of food safety according to the heat of the event and the emotional intensity of the public to food safety public opinion events.


Author(s):  
Christopher Wlezien

The representation of public opinion in public policy is of obvious importance in representative democracies. While public opinion is important in all political systems, it is especially true where voters elect politicians; after all, opinion representation is a primary justification for representative democracy. Not surprisingly, a lot of research addresses the connection between the public and the government. Much of the work considers “descriptive representation”—whether the partisan and demographic characteristics of elected politicians match the characteristics of the electorate itself. This descriptive representation is important but may not produce actual “substantive representation” of preferences in policy. Other work examines the positions of policymakers. Some of this research assesses the roll call voting behavior of politicians and institutions. The expressed positions and voting behavior of political actors do relate to policy but are not the same things. Fortunately, a good amount of research analyzes policy. With but a handful of exceptions noted below, this research focuses on expressed preferences of the public, not their “interests.” That is, virtually all scholars let people be the judges of their own interests, and they assess the representation of expressed opinion no matter how contrary to self-interest it may seem.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
Coni Wanprala ◽  
Isnaini Muallidin ◽  
Dewi Sekar Kencono

At present the development of technology and information has reached a very rapid level. Technology and information are used as a service media in the government environment which is also known as e-Government, one of which is the service of public information disclosure. The central government through Law No. 14 of 2008 concerning Openness of Public Information, encourages all Public Agencies including the Sleman Regency Government to make transparency in the administration of the state by utilizing information technology. This research is a qualitative descriptive study which aims to describe the reality that occurs. The object of research in this study is the official website of the Information and Documentation Management Officer (PPID) of Sleman Regency with the domain https://ppid.slemankab.go.id then the Sleman Regency Communication and Informatics Office as the organizer of the public information disclosure program. The data collection technique itself is carried out by means of interviews, documentation studies, and field observations (observations). After collecting and presenting data, then the data will be reduced first then analyzed and concluded. From the results of the study, in general the researchers concluded that the Sleman Regency PPID website had reached the level of qualification to become a quality website, however there were still some improvements and evaluations that had to be done by the relevant agencies in order to be better, namely (i) the website was still being assessed as a one-way service (ii) There are still many OPDs that are not ready to implement PPID (iii) data and information are still not updated (iv) lack of responsiveness of services in requests for information.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Wicaksana Gede Dharma Arya ◽  
Dewi Ni Putu Febriana

This study aimed at investigating the implementation of e-learning in one of government non-favourite schools in Singaraja. This study was the result of the real implementationof e-learning in Bali in which the government expected e-learning to be applicable in every school in Bali since the launching of Balinese version of E-learning 2017. This research was a descriptive qualitative research. This study used snowball sampling in which the public opinion was counted. The data were collected by using observation and interview guide. The result of the study showed that the implementation of e-learning was not running well and became a serious problem. Some sollutions were offered in this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-161
Author(s):  
James B. Smith

Abstract Although many U.S. faith-based organizations have become partners with the government, the African American Pentecostal Church (aapc), which holds spirituality as a means of serving humanity as its theological framework, has remained a silent partner in public policy engagement. With the framework of spiritual intelligence, this qualitative case study addresses the perceptions of African American Pentecostal leaders regarding how the church’s theology may have an impact on the public policy engagement of its parishioners. Twelve African American Pentecostal Bishops were interviewed, and data were coded and analyzed to identify themes. Results revealed that participants use their spirituality to connect with public policy issues that relate to their personal experiences. Findings also indicated that the aapc is not an organized denomination, but rather a conglomeration of factions. Lack of an organized epicenter and lack of training and development of its leaders prevent this church from engaging in the public sphere. Although members embrace their responsibility to care for the needs of others, the church lacks a collective response to community issues. Findings may be used to prepare the next generation of aapc leaders to unify the church to offer spiritual solutions to public policy issues.


2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig Forcese

The expression "national security" or its close similes lacks a precise meaning, even in the public policy literature. Nevertheless, the concept appears in over 30 federal statutes. In most instances, the term is undefined, an important oversight in light of the significant powers these statutes accord the government. Under these circumstances, how courts review government invocations of "national security" is of real importance. With some exceptions, courts applying s. 7 of the Charter and standard administrative law doctrines have accorded substantial deference to government national security determinations. When largely deferential substantive review of the ambiguous concept of national security is coupled with the ex parti and in camera context in which these cases are often heard, the net effect is to leave government with a freer hand in national security matters than in other domains of administrative decision making. Several possible responses to this problem are proposed.


2020 ◽  
pp. 140-150
Author(s):  
В. О. Кінзбурська

In the article the author defines the list of administrative procedures of interaction of state bodies with the public, which includes the procedures that arise in connection with: 1) public consultations (organization and conduct of public discussions of regulations); 2) the study of public opinion; 3) involvement of the public in the work of commissions established under public authorities; 4) exercising public control and supervision; 5) carrying out information activities of state bodies (publication of public information about the work of state bodies, providing answers to public requests for information); 6) activities of public councils in terms of interaction with state bodies (conducting public consultations, conducting public monitoring, holding meetings of the public council and making decisions of a recommendatory nature); 7) submission of appeals and requests for information (application of administrative procedures). The author analyzes some administrative procedures of interaction of state bodies with the public, namely: conducting public consultations and studying public opinion. The key features of the administrative procedure of public consultations are identified, which include: its dual form of implementation, as such consultations can be carried out both in person and via the Internet; availability of mandatory and optional stages; close connection with other administrative procedure related to the implementation of information activities of public authorities; obligatory documentation of the result in the form of a report, and in case of a face-to-face consultation with the public, also a protocol; the possibility of initiating this procedure by both entities government agencies and civil society institutions. It is noted that the administrative procedure for the study of public opinion is similar to the general administrative procedure for public consultation, but has its differences, in particular: it is initiated exclusively by state bodies (executive authorities); has no optional stages; provides for competitive selection among the subjects of public opinion polls, ie in fact it is a different administrative procedure for competitive selection; does not require logging, and the main document for the implementation of such a procedure is a report.


Author(s):  
Timothy W. Kneeland

This chapter describes how the public also vented anger and frustration at agents of government whose job it was to protect people before a natural disaster occurred. The public was incensed at having received no warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS) and demanded to know why their local civil defense organizations had failed in the midst of the crisis. The public expected to hold someone responsible for the death and the destruction of property. Assigning blame is an integral component of American democracy; in order for change to occur, the electorate must assign responsibility when the government fails so they can pressure officials into improving public policy. In response to the public outrage, elected officials conducted a series of hearings into what went wrong before and during the Hurricane Agnes disaster. State senator Bill Smith, who was unable to get Governor Nelson Rockefeller to agree to a special legislative session, teamed up with Senate majority leader Warren Anderson to hold special hearings into government failures during the disaster. These investigations would show just how tattered the disaster safety net had become in the days before Hurricane Agnes.


Author(s):  
Alejandro Sáez-Martín ◽  
Arturo Haro-de-Rosario ◽  
Manuela García-Tabuyo ◽  
María Del Carmen Caba-Pérez

The many cases of corruption that have come to light, among other scandals, have led the public to lose faith in the management of public institutions. In order to regain confidence, the government needs to inform its citizens of all its actions. Public information should be accessible and controlled by means of a regulatory framework. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the transparency achieved and the progress still needed to be made by Dominican Republic municipalities with regards to complying with the requirements of the law on public information management. The chapter discusses the voluntary transparency achieved and factors that affect the implementation of information policies. The results highlight deficiencies in certain areas of online public information disclosure. The population size, economic capacity and electoral turnout are all factors that affect the online dissemination of public information by local governments in the Dominican Republic.


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