scholarly journals Short-Term Master-Slave Forecast Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Plants Based on the Spatial Correlation

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jia Ning ◽  
Guanghao Lu ◽  
Sipeng Hao ◽  
Aidong Zeng ◽  
Hualei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Spatial Correlation ◽  
Data Storage ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Storage Condition ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Short Term

With the large-scale integration of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) power plants, the uncertainty of photovoltaic generation is intensively influencing the secure operation of power systems. Improving the forecast capability of DPV plants has become an urgent problem to solve. However, most of the DPV plants are not able to make generation forecast on their own due to the constraints of the investment cost, data storage condition, and the influence of microscope environment. Therefore, this paper proposes a master-slave forecast method to predict the power of target plants without forecast ability based on the power of DPV plants with comprehensive forecast system and the spatial correlation between these two kinds of plants. First, a characteristics pattern library of DPV plants is established with K-means clustering algorithm considering the time difference. Next, the pattern most spatially correlated to the target plant is determined through online matching. The corresponding spatial correlation mapping relationship is obtained by numerical fitting using least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and the short-term generation forecast for target plants is achieved with the forecast of reference plants and mapping relationship. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method could improve the overall forecast accuracy by more than 52% for univariate prediction and by more than 22% for multivariate prediction and obtain short-term generation forecast for DPV or newly built DPV plants with low investment.

scholarly journals Multi-zone prediction analysis of city-scale travel order demand

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248064
Author(s):  
Pengshun Li ◽  
Jiarui Chang ◽  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Yi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Intelligent Transportation System ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Nearest Neighbour ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Demand Prediction ◽  
Zone Division

Taxi order demand prediction is of tremendous importance for continuous upgrading of an intelligent transportation system to realise city-scale and personalised services. An accurate short-term taxi demand prediction model in both spatial and temporal relations can assist a city pre-allocate its resources and facilitate city-scale taxi operation management in a megacity. To address problems similar to the above, in this study, we proposed a multi-zone order demand prediction model to predict short-term taxi order demand in different zones at city-scale. A two-step methodology was developed, including order zone division and multi-zone order prediction. For the zone division step, the K-means++ spatial clustering algorithm was used, and its parameter k was estimated by the between–within proportion index. For the prediction step, six methods (backpropagation neural network, support vector regression, random forest, average fusion-based method, weighted fusion-based method, and k-nearest neighbour fusion-based method) were used for comparison. To demonstrate the performance, three multi-zone weighted accuracy indictors were proposed to evaluate the order prediction ability at city-scale. These models were implemented and validated on real-world taxi order demand data from a three-month consecutive collection in Shenzhen, China. Experiment on the city-scale taxi demand data demonstrated the superior prediction performance of the multi-zone order demand prediction model with the k-nearest neighbour fusion-based method based on the proposed accuracy indicator.

scholarly journals Optimization of Short-term Modes of Hydrothermal Power System

2020 ◽  
Vol 209 ◽  
pp. 07014
Author(s):  
Tulkin Gayibov ◽  
Bekzod Pulatov
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Optimal Planning ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Large Power ◽  
Integral Constraints

Optimal planning of short-term modes of power systems is a complex nonlinear programming problem with many simple, functional and integral constraints in the form of equalities and inequalities. Especially, the presence of integral constraints causes significant difficulties in solving of such problem. Since, under such constraints, the modes of power system in separate time intervals of the considered planning period become dependent on the values of the parameters in other intervals. Accordingly, it becomes impossible to obtain the optimal mode plan as the results of separate optimization for individual time intervals of the period under consideration. And the simultaneous solution of the problem for all time intervals of the planning period in the conditions of large power systems is associated with additional difficulties in ensuring the reliability of convergence of the iterative computational process. In this regard, the issues of improving the methods and algorithms for optimization of short-term modes of power systems containing thermal and large hydroelectric power plants with reservoirs, in which water consumption is regulated in the short-term planning period, remains as an important task. In this paper, we propose the effective algorithm for solving the problem under consideration, which makes it possible to quickly and reliably determine the optimal operating modes of the power system for the planned period. The results of research of effectiveness of this algorithm are presented on the example of optimal planning of daily mode of the power system, which contains two thermal and three hydraulic power plants..

scholarly journals Forecast of photovoltaic power generation based on DBSCAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 02016
Author(s):  
Jiaying Zhang ◽  
Yingfan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Bidirectional Lstm

The power output of the photovoltaic power generation has prominent intermittent fluctuation characteristics. Large-scale photovoltaic power generation access will bring a specific impact on the safe and stable operation of the power grid. With the increase in the proportion of renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, the phenomenon of wind abandonment and light abandonment has further increased. The photovoltaic power generation prediction is one of the critical technologies to solve this problem. It is of outstanding academic and application value to research photovoltaic power generation prediction methods and systems. Therefore, accurately carrying out the power forecast of photovoltaic power plants has become a research hot point in recent years. It is favored by scholars at home and abroad. First, this paper builds a simulation model of the photovoltaic cell based on known theoretical knowledge. Then it uses the density clustering algorithm (DBSCAN) in the clustering algorithm and classifies the original data. Finally, according to a series of problems such as the slow modeling speed of photovoltaic short-term power prediction, the bidirectional LSTM photovoltaic power prediction model, and CNN-GRU photovoltaic power prediction model based on clustering algorithm are proposed. After comparing the two models, it is concluded that the bidirectional LSTM prediction model is more accurate.

scholarly journals The Role of Local Citizen Energy Communities in the Road to Carbon-Neutral Power Systems: Outcomes from a Case Study in Portugal

Smart Cities ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 840-863
Author(s):  
Hugo Algarvio
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Solar Power Plants ◽  
Carbon Neutral

Global warming contributes to the worldwide goal of a sustainable carbon-neutral society. Currently, hydroelectric, wind and solar power plants are the most competitive renewable technologies. They are limited to the primary resource availability, but while hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) can have storage capacity but have several geographical limitations, wind and solar power plants have variable renewable energy (VRE) with stochastic profiles, requiring a substantially higher investment when equipped with battery energy storage systems. One of the most affordable solutions to compensate the stochastic behaviour of VRE is the active participation of consumers with demand response capability. Therefore, the role of citizen energy communities (CECs) can be important towards a carbon-neutral society. This work presents the economic and environmental advantages of CECs, by aggregating consumers, prosumers and VRE at the distribution level, considering microgrid trades, but also establishing bilateral agreements with large-scale VRE and HPPs, and participating in electricity markets. Results from the case-study prove the advantages of CECs and self-consumption. Currently, CECs have potential to be carbon-neutral in relation to electricity consumption and reduce consumers’ costs with its variable term until 77%. In the future, electrification may allow CECs to be fully carbon-neutral, if they increase their flexibility portfolio.

scholarly journals Phase Space Reconstruction Algorithm and Deep Learning-Based Very Short-Term Bus Load Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 4349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Shi ◽  
Fei Mei ◽  
Jixiang Lu ◽  
Jinjun Lu ◽  
Yi Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Reconstruction Algorithm ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Energy

With the refinement and intelligence of power system optimal dispatching, the widespread adoption of advanced grid applications that consider the safety and economy of power systems, and the massive access of distributed energy resources, the requirement for bus load prediction accuracy is continuously increasing. Aiming at the volatility brought about by the large-scale access of new energy sources, the adaptability to different forecasting horizons and the time series characteristics of the load, this paper proposes a phase space reconstruction (PSR) and deep belief network (DBN)-based very short-term bus load prediction model. Cross-validation is also employed to optimize the structure of the DBN. The proposed PSR-DBN very short-term bus load forecasting model is verified by applying the real measured load data of a substation. The results prove that, when compared to other alternative models, the PSR-DBN model has higher prediction accuracy and better adaptability for different forecasting horizons in the case of high distributed power penetration and large fluctuation of bus load.

Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting in Wind Power Plants of North China Based on Support Vector Regression Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 705 ◽  
pp. 284-288
Author(s):  
Hai Jian Shao ◽  
Hai Kun Wei
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Heuristic Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Plants ◽  
Power Forecasting

This paper investigates the short-term wind power forecasting and demonstrates accurate modeling, which utilizes two representative heuristic algorithms (i.e. wavelet neural network (WNN) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)), and statistical machine learning techniques (i.e. Support Vector Regression (SVR)). The proposed method generates the performances of different approaches for random time series, characterized with high accuracy and high generalization capability. The employed data is obtained through Sampling equipment in Real Wind Power Plants (Power generation equipment is Dongfang Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. weak wind turbine type--FD77 with German REpower company technology). The main innovation of this paper comes from: (a) problem may encounter in the real application is in consideration such as corrupt, missing value and noisy data. (b) Data lag estimation are provided to investigate the data distribution and obtain the best input variables, respectively. (c) Comparison between MLP neural networks, WNN and SVR with optimized kernel parameters based on Grid-search method are provided to demonstrate the best forecasting approaches. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method with reference value for short-term wind power forecasting.

Research of Aggregated Wind Power Prediction Method for a Region

2013 ◽  
Vol 860-863 ◽  
pp. 262-266
Author(s):  
Jin Yao Zhu ◽  
Jing Ru Yan ◽  
Xue Shen ◽  
Ran Li
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Power Characteristics ◽  
Wind Power Prediction ◽  
Grey Correlation Theory

Wind power is intermittent and volatility. Some new problems would arise to power system operation when Large-scale wind farm is connected with power systems. One of the most important effect is the influence on the grid dispatch. An aggregated wind power prediction method for a region is presented. By means of analyzing power characteristics and correlation, then the greater correlation is selected as model input. Based on grey correlation theory, a least squares support vector machine prediction model is established. Finally, this method is executed on a real case and integrated wind power prediction method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and simplify the prediction step are proved.

Optimal short-term scheduling of large-scale power systems

1981 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Bertsekas ◽  
G. Lauer ◽  
N. Sandell ◽  
T. Posbergh
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Short Term

Short-Term Power Fluctuations of Large Wind Power Plants*

2002 ◽  
Vol 124 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yih-huei Wan ◽  
Demy Bucaneg,
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Power Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Plants ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Power Fluctuations ◽  
Large Wind

To evaluate short-term wind power fluctuations and their impact on electric power systems, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in cooperation with Enron Wind, has started a project to record output power from several large commercial wind power plants at the 1-Hertz rate. This paper presents statistical properties of the data collected so far and discusses the results of data analysis. From the available data, we can already conclude that despite the stochastic nature of wind power fluctuations, the magnitudes and rates of wind power changes caused by wind speed variations are seldom extreme, nor are they totally random. Their values are bounded in narrow ranges. Power output data also show significant spatial variations within a large wind power plant. The data also offer encouraging evidence that accurate wind power forecasting is feasible. To the utility system, large wind power plants are not really random burdens. The narrow range of power level step changes provides a lot of information with which system operators can make short-term predictions of wind power. Large swings of wind power do occur, but those infrequent large changes (caused by wind speed changes) are always related to well-defined weather events, most of which can be accurately predicted in advance.

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