scholarly journals Study on an Intelligent Prediction Method of Ticket Price in a Subway System with Public-Private Partnership

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Shengmin Wang ◽  
Jun Fang ◽  
Lanjun Liu ◽  
Han Wu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Bp Algorithm ◽  
Price Adjustment ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Ticket Price ◽  
System Service ◽  
Subway System ◽  
Ticket Prices

The accurate and rapid prediction of ticket prices for a public-private partnership (PPP) subway system, which is an important research topic in the field of civil engineering management, is of critical importance to ensure its smooth operation. To effectively cope with the effects of multiple influencing factors and strong nonlinearity among them, the mean impact value (MIV) method and the back-propagation (BP) feed-forward neural network improved by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) are used in this study to develop an intelligent prediction model. First, we considered the relationship of the supply and the subway system service, which is a typical quasi-public product, and analyzed the relevant factors affecting its price adjustment. Then, we developed an intelligent method for the prediction of ticket prices based on the SSA-BP. This model not only makes full use of the powerful nonlinear modeling ability of the BP algorithm, but also takes advantage of the strong optimization ability and fast convergence speed of the SSA. Finally, this study screened out the key input factors by adopting the MIV method to simplify the structure of the BP algorithm and achieve a high prediction accuracy. In this study, Beijing Subway Line 4, Wuhan Metro Line 2, and Chengdu Metro Line 1 were selected as case study sites. The results showed that the linear correlations between influencing factors and ticket price for the PPP subway system service were weak, which indicated the need for using nonlinear analysis methods such as the BP algorithm. Compared with other prediction methods (the price adjustment method based on PPP contract, the traditional BP algorithm, the BP neural network improved by the genetic algorithm, the BP algorithm improved by the particle swarm optimization, and the support vector machine), the model proposed in this paper showed better prediction accuracy and calculation stability.

scholarly journals Research on Substation Project Cost Prediction Based on Sparrow Search Algorithm Optimized BP Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13746
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Xu ◽  
Luyao Peng ◽  
Zhengsen Ji ◽  
Shipeng Zheng ◽  
Zhuxiao Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
Engineering Cost

The prediction of power grid engineering cost is the basis of fine management of power grid engineering, and accurate prediction of substation engineering cost can effectively ensure the fine operation of engineering funds. With the continuous expansion of the engineering system, the influencing factors and data dimensions of substation project investment are gradually diversified and complex, which further increases the uncertainty and complexity of substation project cost. Based on the concept of substation engineering data space, this paper investigates the influencing factors and constructs the static total investment intelligent prediction model of substation engineering. The emerging swarm intelligence algorithm, sparrow search algorithm (SSA), is used to optimize the parameters of the BP neural network to improve the prediction accuracy and convergence speed of neural network. In order to test the validity of the model, an example analysis is carried out based on the data of a provincial substation project. It was found that the SSA-BP can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and provide new methods and approaches for practical application and research.

scholarly journals Research on Railway Freight Volume Prediction Based on Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 ◽  
pp. 01050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Yang ◽  
Xuemei Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Railway Freight ◽  
Freight Volume

Railway freight volume is an important part of the total social freight volume and an important indicator of the national economy. Scientific prediction of railway freight volume can provide decision support for the formulation of China's railway policy and railway investment planning, and is of great significance for adjusting transportation structure and building an efficient transportation network. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper constructs a combined prediction model based on GRA-GABP. The model uses grey correlation analysis to screen out the key influencing factors of railway freight volume, and optimizes the weight and threshold of BP neural network based on genetic algorithm to improve the prediction accuracy. This paper comprehensively considers the influencing factors of macroeconomics, market demand, logistics competition and railway supply. The historical data of railway freight transport from 1978 to 2018 is selected for case analysis. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the GRA-GA-BP based combination prediction model is significantly improved and can be used as an effective tool for railway freight volume forecasting.

The Convolution Neural Network Combined with the HT Person Fit Statistic to Develop an APP for Detecting Dengue Fever in Children: Development and Usability Study (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHIEN WEI ◽  
Chi Chow Julie ◽  
Chou Willy
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Convolution Neural Network ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Person Fit ◽  
Model Accuracy ◽  
Comparison Results

UNSTRUCTURED Backgrounds: Dengue fever (DF) is an important public health issue in Asia. However, the disease is extremely hard to detect using traditional dichotomous (i.e., absent vs. present) evaluations of symptoms. Convolution neural network (CNN), a well-established deep learning method, can improve prediction accuracy on account of its usage of a large number of parameters for modeling. Whether the HT person fit statistic can be combined with CNN to increase the prediction accuracy of the model and develop an application (APP) to detect DF in children remains unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study is to build a model for the automatic detection and classification of DF with symptoms to help patients, family members, and clinicians identify the disease at an early stage. Methods: We extracted 19 feature variables of DF-related symptoms from 177 pediatric patients (69 diagnosed with DF) using CNN to predict DF risk. The accuracy of two sets of characteristics (19 symptoms and four other variables, including person mean, standard deviation, and two HT-related statistics matched to DF+ and DF−) for predicting DF, were then compared. Data were separated into training and testing sets, and the former was used to predict the latter. We calculated the sensitivity (Sens), specificity (Spec), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) across studies for comparison. Results: We observed that (1) the 23-item model yields a higher accuracy rate (0.95) and AUC (0.94) than the 19-item model (accuracy = 0.92, AUC = 0.90) based on the 177-case training set; (2) the Sens values are almost higher than the corresponding Spec values (90% in 10 scenarios) for predicting DF; (3) the Sens and Spec values of the 23-item model are consistently higher than those of the 19-item model. An APP was subsequently designed to detect DF in children. Conclusion: The 23-item model yielded higher accuracy rates (0.95) and AUC (0.94) than the 19-item model (accuracy = 0.92, AUC = 0.90). An APP could be developed to help patients, family members, and clinicians discriminate DF from other febrile illnesses at an early stage.

Experimental study on the factors affecting squeak noise occurrence in automotive suspension bushings

2021 ◽  
pp. 095440702110241
Author(s):  
Byunghyun Kang ◽  
Cheol Choi ◽  
Daeun Sung ◽  
Seongho Yoon ◽  
Byoung-Ho Choi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Frictional Force ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Automotive Suspension

In this study, friction tests are performed, via a custom-built friction tester, on specimens of natural rubber used in automotive suspension bushings. By analyzing the problematic suspension bushings, the eleven candidate factors that influence squeak noise are selected: surface lubrication, hardness, vulcanization condition, surface texture, additive content, sample thickness, thermal aging, temperature, surface moisture, friction speed, and normal force. Through friction tests, the changes are investigated in frictional force and squeak noise occurrence according to various levels of the influencing factors. The degree of correlation between frictional force and squeak noise occurrence with the factors is determined through statistical tests, and the relationship between frictional force and squeak noise occurrence based on the test results is discussed. Squeak noise prediction models are constructed by considering the interactions among the influencing factors through both multiple logistic regression and neural network analysis. The accuracies of the two prediction models are evaluated by comparing predicted and measured results. The accuracies of the multiple logistic regression and neural network models in predicting the occurrence of squeak noise are 88.2% and 87.2%, respectively.

scholarly journals Classification of ETM+ Remote Sensing Image Based on Hybrid Algorithm of Genetic Algorithm and Back Propagation Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haisheng Song ◽  
Ruisong Xu ◽  
Yueliang Ma ◽  
Gaofei Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Hybrid Algorithm ◽  
Local Minimum ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Remote Sensing Image ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Bp Algorithm ◽  
Improved Bp Algorithm

The back propagation neural network (BPNN) algorithm can be used as a supervised classification in the processing of remote sensing image classification. But its defects are obvious: falling into the local minimum value easily, slow convergence speed, and being difficult to determine intermediate hidden layer nodes. Genetic algorithm (GA) has the advantages of global optimization and being not easy to fall into local minimum value, but it has the disadvantage of poor local searching capability. This paper uses GA to generate the initial structure of BPNN. Then, the stable, efficient, and fast BP classification network is gotten through making fine adjustments on the improved BP algorithm. Finally, we use the hybrid algorithm to execute classification on remote sensing image and compare it with the improved BP algorithm and traditional maximum likelihood classification (MLC) algorithm. Results of experiments show that the hybrid algorithm outperforms improved BP algorithm and MLC algorithm.

Application of BP Neural Network PID Algorithm in Refrigerated Space Temperature Control

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 827-830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Tian ◽  
Yi Zhun Peng ◽  
Pan Wang ◽  
Xiao Yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Temperature Control ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Pid Control ◽  
Bp Algorithm ◽  
Pid Algorithm ◽  
Controller Performance ◽  
Neural Network Algorithm ◽  
Adaptive Ability ◽  
Neural Network Pid

Taking the temperature control of a refrigerated space as example, this paper designs a controller which is based on traditional PID operation and BP neural network algorithm. It has better steady-state precision and adaptive ability. Firstly, the article introduces the concepts of the refrigerated space, PID and BP algorithm. Then, the temperature control of refrigerated space is simulated in MATLAB. The PID parameters will be adjusted by simulation in BP Neural Network. The PID control parameters could be created real-time online, which makes the controller performance best.

scholarly journals Methods of Constructing Time Series for Predicting Local Time Scales by Means of a GMDH-Type Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5615
Author(s):  
Łukasz Sobolewski ◽  
Wiesław Miczulski
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Local Time ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Horizon

Ensuring the best possible stability of UTC(k) (local time scale) and its compliance with the UTC scale (Universal Coordinated Time) forces predicting the [UTC-UTC(k)] deviations, the article presents the results of work on two methods of constructing time series (TS) for a neural network (NN), increasing the accuracy of UTC(k) prediction. In the first method, two prepared TSs are based on the deviations determined according to the UTC scale with a 5-day interval. In order to improve the accuracy of predicting the deviations, the PCHIP interpolating function is used in subsequent TSs, obtaining TS elements with a 1-day interval. A limitation in the improvement of prediction accuracy for these TS has been a too large prediction horizon. The introduction in 2012 of the additional UTC Rapid scale by BIPM makes it possible to shorten the prediction horizon, and the building of two TSs has been proposed according to the second method. Each of them consists of two subsets. The first subset is based on deviations determined according to the UTC scale, the second on the UTC Rapid scale. The research of the proposed TS in the field of predicting deviations for the Polish Timescale by means of GMDH-type NN shows that the best accuracy of predicting the deviations has been achieved for TS built according to the second method.

scholarly journals The Research of Temperature Compensation for Thermopile Sensor Based on Improved PSO-BP Algorithm

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanjiang Li ◽  
Yuehua Li ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Bin Zhao ◽  
QingQing Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Thermal Radiation ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Temperature Compensation ◽  
Safety Monitoring ◽  
Bp Algorithm ◽  
Bp Network ◽  
The Core ◽  
Thermopile Sensor ◽  
Improved Pso

When thermopile sensor is used for safety monitoring of equipment in industrial environments, particularly for measuring the thermal radiation information of device, the measured result of this kind of sensor is usually affected by ambient temperature due to its unique structure. An improved PSO-BP algorithm is proposed for temperature compensation of thermopile sensor and correcting the error in the condition of the system accuracy requirements reduced by temperature. The core of improved PSO-BP algorithm is to improve the certainty of initial weights and thresholds that belonged to BP neural network and then train the samples by using BP neural network for enhancing the generalization ability and stability of system. The experimental results show that the proposed PSO-BP network outperforms other similar algorithms with faster convergence speed, lower errors, and higher accuracy.

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