scholarly journals Identification of Generating Units That Abuse Market Power in Electricity Spot Market Based on AdaBoost-DT Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Qian Sun ◽  
Yuting Xie ◽  
Xiuzhen Hu ◽  
En Lu ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Market Power ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Risk Prevention ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Electricity Spot Market ◽  
Sample Set

The identification of generating units that abuse market power is an essential part of risk prevention in a spot market, especially in the early stage of the construction of the spot market. In this study, a model for identifying generating units that abuse market power is designed based on the AdaBoost-DT algorithm. It is targeted at the imbalance between samples of generating units that abuse market power and normal generating units in the spot market. First, the four main methods by which market power is abused by generating units in the spot market are described: collusion, economic withholding, physical withholding, and extreme quotation. Second, the specific characteristics of the four methods are analyzed, and the identification indexes for generating units that abuse market power are established. Thereafter, a sample set of generating units that abuse market power using different methods is constructed. Furthermore, a training set is formed with samples of normal generating units to construct a model based on the AdaBoost-DT algorithm, for identifying generating units that abuse market power. Finally, the spot market data of a certain region are used for an example analysis. The results show that the accuracy of model identification is 97%, which validates the method.

scholarly journals Essays on the Interaction  Between Risk and Market  Structure in Electricity  Markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza de Braganca
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Forward Markets ◽  
Electricity Spot Market

<p>This thesis proposes a new framework to jointly analyze electricity spot market and hedging decisions in an oligopolistic setup. Firstly, we find that, when exogenous, both quantity of electricity hedged by contract and vertical integration decrease the equilibrium spot price. Secondly, we use a hybrid approach and show that market structure can affect a generator’s decision to vertically integrate under uncertain demand. Thirdly, we consider uncertainty in costs and demand and show that concentration in the spot market, for a given hedge quantum, can increase forward prices and affect the slope of the forward curve. Our empirical results indicate that the model fits the New Zealand electricity market well. This evidence that market structure and hedging decisions are closely connected is further explored in a three period equilibrium model for the spot and forward markets, where hedging occurs prior to the submission of supply curves. Taking into account demand-side and supply-side uncertainties, we find that when hedging is endogenous, hedging quantities are affected by spot market parameters, but market power is itself mitigated in the conscious hedging choice of generators. We also show that forward markets can coexist with highly vertically integrated markets. The importance of our results is general. Our models can be used by policy makers to analyze investment and forward price implications of changes in the spot market structure. Our results also indicate that electricity generators, in equilibrium, face a trade-off between market power and hedging. Given that it is socially beneficial to manage risk, the equilibrium impact of their choices on welfare should not be considered in isolation by competition authorities.</p>

scholarly journals Research on Funding Differences among Regional Electricity Markets in Northern China based on Thermoelectric Decoupling

2020 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Sen Wang ◽  
Can Sun ◽  
Zhiyong Gan ◽  
Liansheng Zhou ◽  
Guilin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Market Power ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Market Mechanism ◽  
Large Influence ◽  
Electricity Spot Market

With the development of China’s electricity spot market, planned power and market power will coexist for a long time. At the same time, by avoiding the risk of market price fluctuation through medium and long-term market, spot market guarantees electricity balance and secure operation of the grid. The electricity market mechanism has an increasingly large influence on the operation and dispatching model of power system. In spot market, decoupling operation model of market and non-market power has a large influence on both supply and demand sides and improper dredging mechanism may cause significant settlement deviation. To solve this problem, the paper, taking a city in northern China as an example, analyzes the electricity spot market, compares the sources of difference fund of market and non-market power under decoupling and non-decoupling models and compares the pros and cons of coupling and decoupling. The paper also studies the disparity of difference fund and proposes advice adapted to the electricity spot market development of northern China.

scholarly journals Essays on the Interaction  Between Risk and Market  Structure in Electricity  Markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza de Braganca
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Forward Markets ◽  
Electricity Spot Market

<p>This thesis proposes a new framework to jointly analyze electricity spot market and hedging decisions in an oligopolistic setup. Firstly, we find that, when exogenous, both quantity of electricity hedged by contract and vertical integration decrease the equilibrium spot price. Secondly, we use a hybrid approach and show that market structure can affect a generator’s decision to vertically integrate under uncertain demand. Thirdly, we consider uncertainty in costs and demand and show that concentration in the spot market, for a given hedge quantum, can increase forward prices and affect the slope of the forward curve. Our empirical results indicate that the model fits the New Zealand electricity market well. This evidence that market structure and hedging decisions are closely connected is further explored in a three period equilibrium model for the spot and forward markets, where hedging occurs prior to the submission of supply curves. Taking into account demand-side and supply-side uncertainties, we find that when hedging is endogenous, hedging quantities are affected by spot market parameters, but market power is itself mitigated in the conscious hedging choice of generators. We also show that forward markets can coexist with highly vertically integrated markets. The importance of our results is general. Our models can be used by policy makers to analyze investment and forward price implications of changes in the spot market structure. Our results also indicate that electricity generators, in equilibrium, face a trade-off between market power and hedging. Given that it is socially beneficial to manage risk, the equilibrium impact of their choices on welfare should not be considered in isolation by competition authorities.</p>

scholarly journals Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 11-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza de Bragança ◽  
Toby Daglish
Keyword(s):  
Market Power ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Electricity Spot Market

scholarly journals DeepRePath: Identifying the Prognostic Features of Early-Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma Using Multi-Scale Pathology Images and Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 3308
Author(s):  
Won Sang Shim ◽  
Kwangil Yim ◽  
Tae-Jung Kim ◽  
Yeoun Eun Sung ◽  
Gyeongyun Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽  
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Prognostic Features ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Number Of Patients

The prognosis of patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD), especially early-stage LUAD, is dependent on clinicopathological features. However, its predictive utility is limited. In this study, we developed and trained a DeepRePath model based on a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) using multi-scale pathology images to predict the prognosis of patients with early-stage LUAD. DeepRePath was pre-trained with 1067 hematoxylin and eosin-stained whole-slide images of LUAD from the Cancer Genome Atlas. DeepRePath was further trained and validated using two separate CNNs and multi-scale pathology images of 393 resected lung cancer specimens from patients with stage I and II LUAD. Of the 393 patients, 95 patients developed recurrence after surgical resection. The DeepRePath model showed average area under the curve (AUC) scores of 0.77 and 0.76 in cohort I and cohort II (external validation set), respectively. Owing to low performance, DeepRePath cannot be used as an automated tool in a clinical setting. When gradient-weighted class activation mapping was used, DeepRePath indicated the association between atypical nuclei, discohesive tumor cells, and tumor necrosis in pathology images showing recurrence. Despite the limitations associated with a relatively small number of patients, the DeepRePath model based on CNNs with transfer learning could predict recurrence after the curative resection of early-stage LUAD using multi-scale pathology images.

scholarly journals Analysis on the operation mechanism of spot mode adapting to the initial stage of China’s electricity spot market

2021 ◽  
Vol 687 (1) ◽  
pp. 012090
Author(s):  
Dunnan Liu ◽  
Tingting Zhang ◽  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Hua Li ◽  
Mingguang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spot Market ◽  
Operation Mechanism ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Electricity Spot Market
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