scholarly journals Basket Credit Derivative Pricing in a Markov Chain Model with Interacting Intensities

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Kangquan Zhi ◽  
Jie Guo ◽  
Xiaosong Qian
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Default Intensity ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Credit Derivative ◽  
Recursive Formulas ◽  
Premium Rates ◽  
Default Risks

In this paper, we propose a Markov chain model to price basket credit default swap (BCDS) and basket credit-linked note (BCLN) with counterparty and contagion risks. Suppose that the default intensity processes of reference entities and the counterparty are driven by a common external shock as well as defaults of other names in the contracts. The stochastic intensity of the external shock is a Cox process with jumps. We derive recursive formulas for the joint distribution of default times and obtain closed-form premium rates for BCDS and BCLN. Numerical experiments are performed to show how the correlated default risks may affect the premium rates.

An Efficient Markov Chain Model for the Simulation of Heterogeneous Soil Structure

2004 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keijan Wu ◽  
Naoise Nunan ◽  
John W. Crawford ◽  
Iain M. Young ◽  
Karl Ritz
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Soil Structure ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Soil

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

Evaluating basketball player’s rotation line-ups performance via statistical markov chain modelling

2021 ◽  
pp. 174795412110090
Author(s):  
Pavlos Kolias ◽  
Nikolaos Stavropoulos ◽  
Alexandra Papadopoulou ◽  
Theodoros Kostakidis
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Specific Rotation ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Know How ◽  
Basketball Game ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rotation Line ◽  
Rating Category

Coaches in basketball often need to know how specific rotation line-ups perform in either offense or defense and choose the most efficient formation, according to their specific needs. In this research, a sample of 1131 ball possession phases of Greek Basket League was utilized, in order to estimate the offensive and defensive performance of each formation. Offensive and defensive ratings for each formation were calculated as a function of points scored or received, respectively, over possessions, where possessions were estimated using a multiple regression model. Furthermore, a Markov chain model was implemented to estimate the probabilities of the associated formation’s performance in the long run. The model could allow us to distinguish between overperforming and underperforming formations and revealed the probabilities over the evolution of the game, for each formation to be in a specific rating category. The results indicated that the most dominant formation, in terms of offense, is Point Guard-Point Guard-Small Forward-Power Forward-Center, while defensively schema Point Guard-Shooting Guard-Small Forward-Center-Center had the highest rating. Such results provide information, which could operate as a supplementary tool for the coach’s decisions, related to which rotation line-up patterns are mostly suitable during a basketball game.

An improved grey Markov chain model with ANN error correction and its application in gross domestic product forecasting

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Yuan Zou ◽  
Daoli Yang ◽  
Yuchen Pan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Chain Model

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely-used tool for measuring the overall situation of a country’s economic activity within a specified period of time. A more accurate forecasting of GDP based on standardized procedures with known samples available is conducive to guide decision making of government, enterprises and individuals. This study devotes to enhance the accuracy regarding GDP forecasting with given sample of historical data. To achieve this purpose, the study incorporates artificial neural network (ANN) into grey Markov chain model to modify the residual error, thus develops a novel hybrid model called grey Markov chain with ANN error correction (abbreviated as GMCM_ANN), which assembles the advantages of three components to fit nonlinear forecasting with limited sample sizes. The new model has been tested by adopting the historical data, which includes the original GDP data of the United States, Japan, China and India from 2000 to 2019, and also provides predications on four countries’ GDP up to 2022. Four models including autoregressive integrated moving average model, back-propagation neural network, the traditional GM(1,1) and grey Markov chain model are as benchmarks for comparison of the predicted accuracy and application scope. The obtained results are satisfactory and indicate superior forecasting performance of the proposed approach in terms of accuracy and universality.

scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of Pedestrians’ Violation Behavior at the Intersection Based on a Markov Chain

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5690
Author(s):  
Chengyuan Mao ◽  
Lewen Bao ◽  
Shengde Yang ◽  
Wenjiao Xu ◽  
Qin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Road Geometry ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Pedestrian Crossing ◽  
Prediction Approach

Pedestrian violations pose a danger to themselves and other road users. Most previous studies predict pedestrian violation behaviors based only on pedestrians’ demographic characteristics. In practice, in addition to demographic characteristics, other factors may also impact pedestrian violation behaviors. Therefore, this study aims to predict pedestrian crossing violations based on pedestrian attributes, traffic conditions, road geometry, and environmental conditions. Data on the pedestrian crossing, both in compliance and in violation, were collected from 10 signalized intersections in the city of Jinhua, China. We propose an illegal pedestrian crossing behavior prediction approach that consists of a logistic regression model and a Markov Chain model. The former calculates the likelihood that the first pedestrian who decides to cross the intersection illegally within each signal cycle, while the latter computes the probability that the subsequent pedestrians who decides to follow the violation. The proposed approach was validated using data gathered from an additional signalized intersection in Jinhua city. The results show that the proposed approach has a robust ability in pedestrian violation behavior prediction. The findings can provide theoretical references for pedestrian signal timing, crossing facility optimization, and warning system design.

scholarly journals Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov and Markov Renewal Processes and Change of Measure in Credit Risk

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
P.-C.G. Vassiliou
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Probability Measure ◽  
Renewal Process ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Markov Renewal Process ◽  
Renewal Processes ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Markov Renewal Processes ◽  
Risky Bonds ◽  
Markov Structure

For a G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain and G-inhomogeneous Markov renewal processes, we study the change from real probability measure into a forward probability measure. We find the values of risky bonds using the forward probabilities that the bond will not default up to maturity time for both processes. It is established in the form of a theorem that the forward probability measure does not alter the semi Markov structure. In addition, foundation of a G-inhohomogeneous Markov renewal process is done and a theorem is provided where it is proved that the Markov renewal process is maintained under the forward probability measure. We show that for an inhomogeneous semi-Markov there are martingales that characterize it. We show that the same is true for a Markov renewal processes. We discuss in depth the calibration of the G-inhomogeneous semi-Markov chain model and propose an algorithm for it. We conclude with an application for risky bonds.

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