scholarly journals Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Model Based on Poultry Transport Network in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juping Zhang ◽  
Wenjun Jing ◽  
Wenyi Zhang ◽  
Zhen Jin

In order to analyze the spread of avian influenza A (H7N9), we construct an avian influenza transmission model from poultry (including poultry farm, backyard poultry farm, live-poultry wholesale market, and wet market) to human according to poultry transport network. We obtain the threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza A (H7N9) and also give the existence and number of the boundary equilibria and endemic equilibria in different conditions. We can see that poultry transport network plays an important role in controlling avian influenza A (H7N9). Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effects of poultry in different places on avian influenza. In order to reduce human infections in China, our results suggest that closing the retail live-poultry market or preventing the poultry of backyard poultry farm into the live-poultry market is feasible in a suitable condition.

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhou ◽  
Ruiqi Ren ◽  
Jianming Ou ◽  
Min Kang ◽  
Xiaoxiao Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background.  Human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been associated with exposure to poultry and live poultry markets (LPMs). We conducted a case-control study to identify additional and more specific risk factors. Methods.  Cases were laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infections in persons in China reported from October 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015. Poultry workers, those with insufficient data, and those refusing participation were excluded. We matched up to 4 controls per case by sex, age, and residential community. Using conditional logistic regression, we examined associations between A(H7N9) infection and potential risk factors. Results.  Eighty-five cases and 334 controls were enrolled with similar demographic characteristics. Increased risk of A(H7N9) infection was associated with the following: visiting LPMs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6–15.3), direct contact with live poultry in LPMs (aOR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.1–15.6), stopping at a live poultry stall when visiting LPMs (aOR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1–6.9), raising backyard poultry at home (aOR, 7.7; 95% CI, 2.0–30.5), direct contact with backyard poultry (aOR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.1–22.1), and having ≥1 chronic disease (aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5–6.5). Conclusions.  Our study identified raising backyard poultry at home as a risk factor for illness with A(H7N9), suggesting the need for enhanced avian influenza surveillance in rural areas.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanghu Zhu ◽  
Min Kang ◽  
Xueli Wei ◽  
Tian Tang ◽  
Tao Liu ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundDifferent interventions targeting live poultry markets (LPMs) have been applied in China for controlling the avian influenza A (H7N9), including LPM closure and “1110” policy (i.e., daily cleaning, weekly disinfection, monthly rest day, zero poultry stock overnight). However, the effects of these interventions have not been comprehensively assessed.MethodsBased on the available data (including reported cases, domestic poultry volume, and climate) collected in Guangdong Province between October 2013 and June 2017, we developed a new compartmental model that enabled us to infer H7N9 transmission dynamics. The proposed model incorporated the intrinsic interplay among humans and poultry as well as the effects of absolute humidity and LPM intervention, in which different intervention strategies were parameterized and estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.ResultsThere were 258 confirmed human H7N9 cases in Guangdong Province during the study period. If without interventions, the number would reach 646 (95%CI, 575-718) cases. The temporal, seasonal and permanent closures of LPMs can substantially reduce transmission risk, which might respectively reduce human infections by 67.2% (95%CI, 64.3%-70.1%), 75.6% (95%CI, 73.8%-77.5%), 86.6% (95%CI, 85.7-87.6%) in total four epidemic seasons, and 81.9% CI(95%, 78.7%-85.2%), 91.5% (95%CI, 89.9%-93.1%), 99.0% (95%CI, 98.7%-99.3%) in the last two epidemic seasons. Moreover, implementing the “1110” policy from 2014 to 2017 would reduce the cases by 34.1% (95%CI, 20.1%-48.0%), suggesting its limited role in preventing H7N9 transmission.ConclusionsOur study quantified the effects of different interventions and execution time toward LPMs for controlling H7N9 transmission. The results highlighted the importance of closing LPMs during epidemic period, and supported permanent closure as a long-term plan.Author summaryFive waves of human influenza A (H7N9) epidemics affected China during 2013 and 2017. Its continuous emergence poses a big threat to public health. Given the key role of live poultry markets (LPMs) in H7N9 transmission, different interventions in LPMs (including the “1110’’ policy and LPM closure) were widely employed to prevent human infection with H7N9. Providing scientific evidence of their long-term effects is very important for the disease control, which can help to maximize control benefits and to minimize economic loss. To achieve this, we established a new transmission model and parameterized the intervention strategies. By using the proposed model to investigate the recent H7N9 outbreak in Guangdong Province, we quantified the effects of temporal, seasonal and permanent PLM closures, and the “1110’’ policy, as well as different intervention timing on the emergence of human H7N9 infections. The results can offer useful information for local authorities to take proper management in LPMs, and help in preparing optimal control strategies.


2008 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 949-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min-Suk Song ◽  
Taek-Kyu Oh ◽  
Ho Jin Moon ◽  
Dai-Woon Yoo ◽  
Eun Ho Lee ◽  
...  

To determine the genetic origins of novel H3 avian influenza viruses of chickens and ducks in Korea, genetic characterization of H3 avian influenza viruses isolated from live poultry markets and migratory aquatic birds in South Korea during 2004–2006 was conducted. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that at least four novel genotypes of H3N2 and two genotypes of H3N6 avian influenza viruses were co-circulating in backyard poultry of Korea. The viruses were reassortants between H9N2 viruses of Korean chickens and unknown influenza viruses of migratory birds. Genetic comparison of H3 viruses from live bird markets with those from wild bird isolates revealed that certain gene segments of wild bird isolates are related closely to those of Korean group H9N2 viruses isolated from live poultry markets in 2003. Furthermore, animal-challenge studies demonstrated that the pathogenicity of certain avian H3 influenza viruses was altered due to reassortment, leading to H3 avian influenza viruses in Korea that can potentially expand their host range to include mammals. These studies emphasize the continuing need to monitor backyard poultry at live poultry markets to better understand interspecies transmission and the emergence of novel influenza viruses that have the potential to infect humans.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Chen ◽  
Jian Cheng ◽  
Zhiwei Xu ◽  
Wenbiao Hu ◽  
Jiahai Lu

Abstract Background Previous studies have proven that the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) was an effective intervention to reduce human risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) infection, but evidence is limited on the impact of scale and duration of LPMs closure on the transmission of H7N9. Method Five cities (i.e., Shanghai, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou) with the largest number of H7N9 cases in mainland China from 2013-2017 were selected in this study. Data on laboratory-confirmed H7N9 human cases in those five cities were obtained from the Chinese National Influenza Centre. The detailed information of LPMs closure (i.e., area and duration) was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture. We used a generalized linear model with a Poisson link to estimate the effect of LPMs closure, reported as relative risk reduction (RRR). We used classification and regression trees (CARTs) to select and quantify the dominant factor of H7N9 infection. Results All five cities implemented the LPMs closure, and the risk of H7N9 infection decreased significantly after LPMs closure with RRR ranging from 0.80-0.93. Respectively, a long-term LPMs closure for 10-13 weeks elicited a sustained and highly significant risk reduction of H7N9 infection (RRR = 0.98). Short-time LPMs closure with 2 weeks in every epidemic did not reduce the risk of H7N9 infection (p>0.05). Partially closed LPMs in some suburbs contributed only 35% for reduction rate (RRR=0.35). Shenzhen implemented partial closure for first 3 epidemics (p>0.05) and all closure in the latest 2 epidemic waves (RRR=0.64). Conclusion Our findings suggest that LPMs all closure in whole city can be a highly effective measure comparing with partial closure (i.e. only urban closure, suburb and country remain open). Extend the duration of closure and consider permanently closing the LPMs will help improve the control effect. The effect of LPMs closure is greater than that of meteorology on H7N9 transmission.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wang ◽  
Shisong Fang

ObjectiveTo determine avian influenza A(H5N6) virus infection in humanand environment using extensive surveillances. To evaluate theprevalence of H5N6 infection among high risk population.IntroductionSince the emergence of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2013,extensive surveillances have been established to monitor the humaninfection and environmental contamination with avian influenza virusin southern China. At the end of 2015, human infection with influenzaA(H5N6) virus was identified in Shenzhen for the first time throughthese surveillances. These surveillances include severe pneumoniascreening, influenza like illness (ILI) surveillance, follow-up onclose contact of the confirmed case, serological survey among poultryworkers, environment surveillance in poultry market.MethodsSevere pneumonia screening was carried out in all hospitals ofShenzhen. When a patient with severe pneumonia is suspected forinfection with avian influenza virus, after consultation with at leasttwo senior respiratory physicians from the designated expert paneland gaining their approval, the patient will be reported to local CDC,nasal and pharyngeal swabs will be collected and sent for detectionof H5N6 virus by RT-PCR.ILI surveillance was conducted in 11 sentinel hospitals, 5-20 ILIcases were sampled for detection of seasonal influenza virus by RT-PCR test every week for one sentinel. If swab sample is tested positivefor influenza type A and negative for subtypes of seasonal A(H3N2)and A(H1N1), it will be detected further for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Follow-up on close contacts was immediately carried out whenhuman case of infection with H5N6 was identified. All of closecontacts were requested to report any signs and symptoms of acuterespiratory illness for 10 days, nasal and pharyngeal swabs werecollected and tested for influenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.In the meantime, environmental samples were collected in the marketwhich was epidemiologically associated with patient and tested forH5N6 virus by RT-PCR test.Serological survey among poultry workers was conducted in tendistricts of Shenzhen. Poultry workers were recruited in poultrymarkets and screened for any signs and symptoms of acute respiratoryillness, blood samples were collected to detect haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Environment surveillance was conducted twice a month in tendistricts of Shenzhen. For each district, 10 swab samples werecollected at a time. All environmental samples were tested forinfluenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.ResultsFrom Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, 50 patients with severepneumonia were reported and detected for H5N6 virus, three patientswere confirmed to be infected with H5N6 virus. Case 1 was a 26 yearsold woman and identified on Dec 29, 2015. She purchased a duck ata live poultry stall of nearby market, cooked and ate the duck 4 daysbefore symptom onset. After admission to hospital on Dec 27, hercondition deteriorated rapidly, on Dec 30 she died. The case 2 was a25 years old man and confirmed on Jan 7, 2016. He visited a marketeveryday and had no close contact with poultry, except for passingby live poultry stalls. He recovered and was discharged from hospitalon Jan 22. The case 3 was is a 31 years old woman and reported onJan 16, 2016, she had no contact with live poultry and died on Feb 8.For 60 close contacts of three cases, none of them reported signsor symptoms of acute respiratory illness, all of nasal and pharyngealswabs were tested negative for influenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCRtest. Of 146 environmental swabs collected in the case’s living placesand relevant poultry markets, 38 were tested positive for influenzaA(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test.From Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, 2812 ILI cases were sampledand tested for influenza type A and subtypes of seasonal influenza.Those samples tested positive for influenza type A could be furthersubtyped to seasonal A(H3N2) or A(H1N1), therefore no sample fromILI case was tested for influenza A(H5N6) virus.Serological surveys among poultry workers were conductedtwice, for the first survey 186 poultry workers were recruited in Oct2015, for the second survey 195 poultry workers were recruited inJan 2016. Blood sample were collected and tested for HI antibodyof influenza A(H5N6) virus. 2 individuals had H5N6 HI antibodytiter of 1:40, 5 individuals had H5N6 HI antibody titer of 1:20, rest ofthem had H5N6 HI antibody titer of <1:20. According to the WHOguideline, HI antibody titer of≥1:160 against avian influenza viruswere considered positive.From Nov 1, 2015 to May 31, 2016, of 1234 environmental swabscollected in poultry markets, 339 (27.5%)were tested positive forinfluenza A(H5N6) virus by RT-PCR test. Each of the ten districtshad poultry markets which was contaminated by influenza A(H5N6)virus.ConclusionsIn 2015-2016 winter, three cases of infection with influenzaA(H5N6) virus were identified in Shenzhen, all of them were youngindividuals with average age of 27.3 years and developed severepneumonia soon after illness onset, two cases died. For acute andsevere disease, early detection and treatment is the key measure forpatient’s prognosis.H5N6 virus was identified in poultry market and other placeswhere patient appeared, implying poultry market probably was thesource of infection. Despite the high contamination rate of H5N6virus in poultry market, we found that the infection with H5N6 virusamong poultry workers was not prevalent, with infection rate being0/381. Human infection with H5N6 virus seemed to be a sporadicoccurrence, poultry-human transmission of H5N6 virus might not bevery effective.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Chen ◽  
Jian Cheng ◽  
Zhiwei Xu ◽  
Wenbiao Hu ◽  
Jiahai Lu

Abstract Background Previous studies have proven that the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) was an effective intervention to reduce human risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) infection, but evidence is limited on the impact of scale and duration of LPMs closure on the transmission of H7N9. Method Five cities (i.e., Shanghai, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou) with the largest number of H7N9 cases in mainland China from 2013-2017 were selected in this study. Data on laboratory-confirmed H7N9 human cases in those five cities were obtained from the Chinese National Influenza Centre. The detailed information of LPMs closure (i.e., area and duration) was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture. We used a generalized linear model with a Poisson link to estimate the effect of LPMs closure, reported as relative risk reduction (RRR). We used classification and regression trees (CARTs) to select and quantify the dominant factor of H7N9 infection. Results All five cities implemented the LPMs closure, and the risk of H7N9 infection decreased significantly after LPMs closure with RRR ranging from 0.80-0.93. Respectively, a long-term LPMs closure for 10-13 weeks elicited a sustained and highly significant risk reduction of H7N9 infection (RRR = 0.98). Short-time LPMs closure with 2 weeks in every epidemic did not reduce the risk of H7N9 infection (p>0.05). Partially closed LPMs in some suburbs contributed only 35% for reduction rate (RRR=0.35). Shenzhen implemented partial closure for first 3 epidemics (p>0.05) and all closure in the latest 2 epidemic waves (RRR=0.64). Conclusion Our findings suggest that LPMs all closure in whole city can be a highly effective measure comparing with partial closure (i.e. only urban closure, suburb and country remain open). Extend the duration of closure and consider permanently closing the LPMs will help improve the control effect. The effect of LPMs closure is greater than that of meteorology on H7N9 transmission.


2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Gilbert ◽  
Nick Golding ◽  
Hang Zhou ◽  
G. R. William Wint ◽  
Timothy P. Robinson ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document