scholarly journals VECM Model Analysis of Carbon Emissions, GDP, and International Crude Oil Prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohua Zou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Natural Capital ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test

As a kind of scarce natural capital, energy makes more and more obvious constraint effects on economic growth. And energy consumption is the major source of greenhouse gas emissions. This brings about the problems of the relationships among energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth, which is worthy of long-term attention. This paper attempted to explore the interactive relations among American oil prices, carbon emissions, and GDP through the data analysis from 1983 to 2013. This paper adopted time series vector error correction model (VECM) approach to conduct stationarity test, cointegration test, stability test, and Granger causality test. The results indicated that, no matter in the short term or long term, oil price fluctuation is the reason why carbon emissions change, while the GDP fluctuation is not the reason for the growth of carbon emissions. The oil price impacts will have a great influence on GDP and carbon emissions in the short term, but, the in long term, the influence will tend to be gentle.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Income Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Oil Price, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 5588
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abumunshar ◽  
Mehmet Aga ◽  
Ahmed Samour
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Imported Oil

The main objective of this research was to test the effect of oil prices, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on Turkey’s carbon emissions by using three co-integration tests, namely, the newly-developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing technique as proposed by (McNown et al., 2018); the new approach involving the Bayer–Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test; and the H-J (2008) co-integration technique, which induces two dates of structural breaks. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) approaches were utilized to test the long-run interaction between the examined variables. The Granger causality (GC) analysis was utilized to investigate the direction of causality among the variables. The long-run coefficients of ARDL, DOLS, CCR, and FMOLS showed that the oil prices had a negative influence on CO2 emissions in Turkey in the long run. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that non-renewable energy, which includes oil, natural gas, and coal, increased CO2 emissions. In contrast, renewable energy can decrease the environmental pollution. These empirical findings can be attributed to the fact that Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil; more than 50% of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Hence, oil price fluctuations have severe effects on the economic performance in Turkey, which in turn affects energy consumption and the level of carbon emissions. The study suggests that the rate of imported oil in Turkey must be decreased by finding more renewable energy sources for the energy supply formula to avoid any undesirable effects of oil price fluctuations on the CO2 emissions, and also to achieve sustainable development.

The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Population, and R&D on Carbon Emission in Turkey

2022 ◽  
pp. 200-215
Author(s):  
Nurcan Kilinc-Ata
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Asymmetry ◽  
Growth Energy

The presented study analyzes the asymmetry effect of research and development (R&D) expenditures, population growth, energy consumption, and economic growth on carbon emissions in the sample of Turkey for the period 1990-2020. Nonlinear ARDL is used to control the asymmetry of the variables. Linear ARDL is used to control the long-term and short-term relationships between the variables. The findings show that there is a symmetrical or linear relationship between the variables of R&D expenditures, population growth, energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions. The findings display that economic growth and R&D are effective in reducing carbon emissions, while energy consumption seems to increase carbon emissions. Interestingly, the population was found to be effective in reducing carbon emissions in the study. In order for Turkey to reach its 2050 target, it is necessary to give priority to environmental regulations and policies.

scholarly journals Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis on Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6575
Author(s):  
Cristian C. Popescu ◽  
Laura Diaconu (Maxim)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
National Income ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
The One

The purpose of our study is to identify the nature of the link between government spending and economic growth, in order to test the two theories of Wagner and Keynes, in the case of Romania. On the one hand, Keynes argues that public spending is an important tool to stimulate growth. On the other hand, Wagner says that increased public spending is a result of economic growth. We analyzed the long-term dynamics of the two time series through Johansen’s cointegration approach and, in the short term, with the help of Granger’s causality test. The obtained results do not indicate the existence of long-term cointegration vectors, but they support the double causality relation in the short term. Therefore, not only does GDP represent a Granger cause for government spending but also vice versa. Our results validate the liberal criticism of the state’s involvement in supporting economies. As the critics of the monetarist school said, the effect of multiplying government spending on national income is short-term. The long-term effect appears under the action of inflationary macroeconomic bottlenecks.

scholarly journals Another Look into the Relationship between Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, Agriculture and Urbanization in Thailand: A Frequency Domain Analysis

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5132
Author(s):  
Mário Nuno Mata ◽  
Seun Damola Oladipupo ◽  
Rjoub Husam ◽  
Joaquim António Ferrão ◽  
Mehmet Altuntaş ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Frequency Domain Analysis ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Relationship

This empirical study assesses the effect of CO2 emissions, urbanization, energy consumption, and agriculture on Thailand’s economic growth using a dataset between 1970 and 2018. The ARDL and the frequency domain causality (FDC) approaches were applied to assess these interconnections. The outcome of the bounds test suggested a long-term association among the variables of investigation. The ARDL outcomes reveal that urbanization, agriculture, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions positively trigger Thailand’s economic growth. Additionally, the frequency domain causality test was used to detect a causal connection between the series. The main benefit of this technique is that it can detect a causal connection between series at different frequencies. To the understanding of the authors, this is the first study in the case of Thailand that will apply the FDC approach to capture the causal linkage between GDP and the regressors. The outcomes of the causality test suggested that CO2 emissions, urbanization, energy consumption, and agriculture can predict Thailand’s economic growth in the long term. These outcomes have far-reaching implications for economic performance and Thailand’s macroeconomic indicators.

scholarly journals Solar Energy and CO2 Emissions: CCEMG Estimations for 26 Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taner Güney ◽  
Duygu Ince
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Common Correlated Effects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Although research establishes that the impact of renewable energy on environmental sustainability is critical in the era of globalization, the individual impact of renewable energy on the environment is often ignored. Therefore, this article examines the long-term relationships and direction of these relationships between solar energy consumption, coal energy consumption, financial globalization, economic growth, and environmental pollution for the period from 2000 to 2019 for 26 countries. The study used a range of econometric techniques that account for the cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity observed in the panel. The results of the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator showed that solar energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on the level of carbon emissions. In addition, economic growth and coal energy increase carbon emissions. Finally, the results of the panel causality test confirmed the existence of various causal relationships among the variables.

scholarly journals Research on the coordination of energy in China’s economic growth

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0251824
Author(s):  
Yuanying Chi ◽  
Guoqing Bai ◽  
Jialin Li ◽  
Bin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Growth Economic

This study uses the improved Cobb-Douglas two-factor production function model to explore the potential relationship between economic growth and energy consumption through the multiple co-integration test on the panel data of China from 1985 to 2018. The results show that there is a positive long-term balance between energy consumption and economic growth: economic growth of 1%, total energy consumption growth of 1.53%, which means that economic growth needs higher energy support in the former short term. At the same time, the error correction term will converge energy consumption to a long-term equilibrium state with an adjustment intensity of 134.59%. From the results of variance decomposition, we can also see that as the number of periods increases, the part of real economic growth explained by energy consumption gradually increases.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document