scholarly journals A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qunqun Liu ◽  
Shiquan Wan ◽  
Bin Gu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Research Progress ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Change ◽  
Climate Regime

An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6287-6308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Warren M. Washington ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
System Response ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Future climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. These results are compared to the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and include simulations using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CESM1(CAM5) is 4.10°C, which is higher than the CCSM4 value of 3.20°C. The transient climate response is 2.33°C, compared to the CCSM4 value of 1.73°C. Thus, even though CESM1(CAM5) includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols (CCSM4 had only the direct effect), the overall climate system response including forcing and feedbacks is greater in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. The Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CESM1(CAM5) weakens considerably in the twenty-first century in all the RCP scenarios, and recovers more slowly in the lower forcing scenarios. The total aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes from ~0.12 in 2006 to ~0.10 in 2100, compared to a preindustrial 1850 value of 0.08, so there is less negative forcing (a net positive forcing) from that source during the twenty-first century. Consequently, the change from 2006 to 2100 in aerosol direct forcing in CESM1(CAM5) contributes to greater twenty-first century warming relative to CCSM4. There is greater Arctic warming and sea ice loss in CESM1(CAM5), with an ice-free summer Arctic occurring by about 2060 in RCP8.5 (2040s in September) as opposed to about 2100 in CCSM4 (2060s in September).

scholarly journals Protocol for Projecting Allele Frequency Change under Future Climate Change at Adaptive-Associated Loci

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 100061
Author(s):  
Meghan Blumstein ◽  
Andrew Richardson ◽  
David Weston ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Wellington Muchero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Allele Frequency ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Change

Chaos in Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Massetti ◽  
Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Exogenous Forcing

<p>Estimates of physical, social and economic impacts of climate change are less accurate than usually thought because the impacts literature has largely neglected the internal variability of the climate system. Climate change scenarios are highly sensitive to the initial conditions of the climate system due the chaotic dynamics of weather. As the initial conditions of the climate system are unknown with a sufficiently high level of precision, each future climate scenario – for any given model parameterization and level of exogenous forcing – is only one of the many possible future realizations of climate. The impacts literature usually relies on only one realization randomly taken out of the full distribution of future climates. Here we use one of the few available large scale ensembles produced to study internal variability and an econometric model of climate change impacts on United States (US) agricultural productivity to show that the range of impacts is much larger than previously thought. Different ensemble members lead to significantly different impacts. Significant sign reversals are frequent. Relying only on one ensemble member leads to incorrect conclusions on the effect of climate change on agriculture in most of the US counties. Impacts studies should start using large scale ensembles of future climate change to predict damages. Climatologists should ramp-up efforts to run large ensembles for all GCMs, for at least the most frequently used scenarios of exogenous forcing.</p>

scholarly journals Abrupt climate change detection based on heuristic segmentation algorithm

2005 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 5494
Author(s):  
Feng Guo-Ling ◽  
Gong Zhi-Qiang ◽  
Dong Wen-Jie ◽  
Li Jian-Ping
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Segmentation Algorithm ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Detection

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Model

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1885) ◽  
pp. 4627-4645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Face

From a socio-economic perspective, the ‘sharp end’ of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular.

scholarly journals Identification of Nonlinear Behavior in Transient Climate Change Projections of Soil Moisture over the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Catherine Reifen ◽  
Ralf Toumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Nonlinear Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Climate System Model

Abstract While most projections of climate change and its regional impacts focus on overall changes in the state of the climate system, useful information can also be found in the evolution of the climate system from one state to another. Here the authors introduce one method for identifying regions in which significant and systematic long-term nonlinear evolutions may be present, even given quasi-linear anthropogenic forcing. Using climate change projections taken from simulations of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the authors then employ the technique to isolate systematic nonlinear behavior of soil moisture variations over the United States. While the projections presented here only represent the results from one model system, it is argued that such nonlinear behavior is an important characteristic of future climate change that should be considered when discussing both short-term and long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing.

The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection

2015 ◽  
Vol 124 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 475-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongmei Jin ◽  
Wenping He ◽  
Qunqun Liu ◽  
Jinsong Wang ◽  
Guolin Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Detection
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