scholarly journals Identification of Nonlinear Behavior in Transient Climate Change Projections of Soil Moisture over the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Catherine Reifen ◽  
Ralf Toumi

Abstract While most projections of climate change and its regional impacts focus on overall changes in the state of the climate system, useful information can also be found in the evolution of the climate system from one state to another. Here the authors introduce one method for identifying regions in which significant and systematic long-term nonlinear evolutions may be present, even given quasi-linear anthropogenic forcing. Using climate change projections taken from simulations of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the authors then employ the technique to isolate systematic nonlinear behavior of soil moisture variations over the United States. While the projections presented here only represent the results from one model system, it is argued that such nonlinear behavior is an important characteristic of future climate change that should be considered when discussing both short-term and long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandi Gamelin ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
V. Rao Kotamarthi

<p>Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.  Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late).  A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yabin Da ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Bruce McCarl

<p>Surface ozone pollution has been proven to impose significant damages on crops. However, the quantification of the damages was extensively derived from chamber experiments, which is not representative of actual results in farm fields due to the limitations of spatial scale, time window, etc. In this work, we attempt to empirically fill this gap using county-level data in the United States from 1980 to 2015. We explore ozone impacts on corn, soybeans, spring wheat, winter wheat, barley, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, and sunflower. We also incorporate a variety of climate variables to investigate potential ozone-climate interactions. More importantly, we shed light on future yield consequences of ozone and climate change individually and jointly under a moderate warming scenario. Our findings suggest significant negative impacts of ozone exposure for eight of the ten crops we examined, excepting barley and winter wheat, which contradicts experimental results. The average annual damages were estimated at $6.03 billion (in 2015 U.S. dollar) from 1980 to 2015. We also find rising temperatures tend to worsen ozone damages while water supply would mitigate that. Finally, elevated ozone driven by future climate change would cause much smaller damages than the direct effects of climate change itself.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6287-6308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Warren M. Washington ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
...  

Abstract Future climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. These results are compared to the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and include simulations using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CESM1(CAM5) is 4.10°C, which is higher than the CCSM4 value of 3.20°C. The transient climate response is 2.33°C, compared to the CCSM4 value of 1.73°C. Thus, even though CESM1(CAM5) includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols (CCSM4 had only the direct effect), the overall climate system response including forcing and feedbacks is greater in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. The Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CESM1(CAM5) weakens considerably in the twenty-first century in all the RCP scenarios, and recovers more slowly in the lower forcing scenarios. The total aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes from ~0.12 in 2006 to ~0.10 in 2100, compared to a preindustrial 1850 value of 0.08, so there is less negative forcing (a net positive forcing) from that source during the twenty-first century. Consequently, the change from 2006 to 2100 in aerosol direct forcing in CESM1(CAM5) contributes to greater twenty-first century warming relative to CCSM4. There is greater Arctic warming and sea ice loss in CESM1(CAM5), with an ice-free summer Arctic occurring by about 2060 in RCP8.5 (2040s in September) as opposed to about 2100 in CCSM4 (2060s in September).


mSystems ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taniya Roy Chowdhury ◽  
Joon-Yong Lee ◽  
Eric M. Bottos ◽  
Colin J. Brislawn ◽  
Richard Allen White ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Climate change is causing shifts in precipitation patterns in the central grasslands of the United States, with largely unknown consequences on the collective physiological responses of the soil microbial community, i.e., the metaphenome. Here, we used an untargeted omics approach to determine the soil microbial community’s metaphenomic response to soil moisture and to define specific metabolic signatures of the response. Specifically, we aimed to develop the technical approaches and metabolic mapping framework necessary for future systematic ecological studies. We collected soil from three locations at the Konza Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) field station in Kansas, and the soils were incubated for 15 days under dry or wet conditions and compared to field-moist controls. The microbiome response to wetting or drying was determined by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, metatranscriptomics, and metabolomics, and the resulting shifts in taxa, gene expression, and metabolites were assessed. Soil drying resulted in significant shifts in both the composition and function of the soil microbiome. In contrast, there were few changes following wetting. The combined metabolic and metatranscriptomic data were used to generate reaction networks to determine the metaphenomic response to soil moisture transitions. Site location was a strong determinant of the response of the soil microbiome to moisture perturbations. However, some specific metabolic pathways changed consistently across sites, including an increase in pathways and metabolites for production of sugars and other osmolytes as a response to drying. Using this approach, we demonstrate that despite the high complexity of the soil habitat, it is possible to generate insight into the effect of environmental change on the soil microbiome and its physiology and functions, thus laying the groundwork for future, targeted studies. IMPORTANCE Climate change is predicted to result in increased drought extent and intensity in the highly productive, former tallgrass prairie region of the continental United States. These soils store large reserves of carbon. The decrease in soil moisture due to drought has largely unknown consequences on soil carbon cycling and other key biogeochemical cycles carried out by soil microbiomes. In this study, we found that soil drying had a significant impact on the structure and function of soil microbial communities, including shifts in expression of specific metabolic pathways, such as those leading toward production of osmoprotectant compounds. This study demonstrates the application of an untargeted multi-omics approach to decipher details of the soil microbial community’s metaphenotypic response to environmental perturbations and should be applicable to studies of other complex microbial systems as well.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sedona Chinn ◽  
P. Sol Hart ◽  
Stuart Soroka

Despite concerns about politicization and polarization in climate change news, previous work has not been able to offer evidence concerning long-term trends. Using computer-assisted content analyses of all climate change articles from major newspapers in the United States between 1985 and 2017, we find that media representations of climate change have become (a) increasingly politicized, whereby political actors are increasingly featured and scientific actors less so and (b) increasingly polarized, in that Democratic and Republican discourses are markedly different. These findings parallel trends in U.S. public opinion, pointing to these features of news coverage as polarizing influences on climate attitudes.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 2178-2196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
David A. Randall

Abstract Coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) have been widely used to explore potential future climate change. Before these climate projections can be trusted, the ability of the models to simulate present-day climate must be assessed. This study evaluates the ability of three CGCMs that participated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate long-term drought over the Great Plains region with the same frequency and intensity as was observed during the twentieth century. The three models evaluated in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 2.0 (CM2.0); the National Centers for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3); and third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The models are shown to capture the broad features of the climatology of the Great Plains, with maximum precipitation occurring in early summer, as observed. However, all of the models overestimate annual precipitation rates. Also, in CCSM3, precipitation and evapotranspiration experience unrealistic decreases between the months of June and August. Long-term droughts are found in each simulation of the twentieth century that are comparable in duration, severity, and spatial extent as has been observed. However, the processes found to be associated with simulated long-term droughts vary among the models. In both CM2.0 and HadCM3, low-frequency variations in Great Plains precipitation are found to correspond with low-frequency variations in tropical Pacific SSTs. In CCSM3, on the other hand, there appears to be no significant correlation between tropical Pacific SST variability and Great Plains precipitation. Strong land–atmosphere coupling in CCSM3 may explain the persistence of long-term droughts in this model.


2021 ◽  
pp. 53-72
Author(s):  
John S. Dryzek

This chapter covers a response to the discourse of limits which stresses the unlimited capacity of ingenious humans to overcome ecological limits, especially when they are organized in capitalist markets. For Prometheans, long term trends show environmental improvement and declining resource scarcity, such that economic growth can therefore go on forever. This Promethean discourse has often been advanced by market economists, and has often been highly influential in government, especially in the United States. More recently a Promethean environmentalism looks forward to a ‘good Anthropocene’ in which government too plays a role in bringing natural systems under benign human control, so that technologies such as geoengineering can be used effectively against problems such as climate change. In the background of Promethean argument is an older cornucopian discourse that stresses natural abundance of resources and the capacity of ecosystems to absorb pollutants. Ecologists and Earth systems scientists are not convinced and remain critical of Promethean discourse.


2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Becky K. Kerns ◽  
Bridgett J. Naylor ◽  
Michelle Buonopane ◽  
Catherine G. Parks ◽  
Brendan Rogers

AbstractTamarisk species are shrubs or small trees considered by some to be among the most aggressively invasive and potentially detrimental exotic plants in the United States. Although extensively studied in the southern and interior west, northwestern (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) distribution and habitat information for tamarisk is either limited or lacking. We obtained distribution data for the northwest, developed a habitat suitability map, and projected changes in habitat due to climate change in a smaller case study area using downscaled climate data. Results show extensive populations of tamarisk east of the Cascade Mountains. Despite the perceived novelty of tamarisk in the region, naturalized populations were present by the 1920s. Major population centers are limited to the warmest and driest environments in the central Snake River Plain, Columbia Plateau, and Northern Basin and Range. Habitat suitability model results indicate that 21% of the region supports suitable tamarisk habitat. Less than 1% of these areas are occupied by tamarisk; the remainder is highly vulnerable to invasion. Although considerable uncertainty exists regarding future climate change, we project a 2- to 10-fold increase in highly suitable tamarisk habitat by the end of the century. Our habitat suitability maps can be used in “what if” exercises as part of planning, detection, restoration, management, and eradication purposes.


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