scholarly journals Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis C with Control Strategies

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan Khan ◽  
Sultan Sial ◽  
Mudassar Imran
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Optimal Controls ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
The Impact

We present a rigorous mathematical analysis of a deterministic model, for the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C, using a standard incidence function. The infected population is divided into three distinct compartments featuring two distinct infection stages (acute and chronic) along with an isolation compartment. It is shown that for basic reproduction number R0≤1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. The model also has an endemic equilibrium for R0>1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out to identify and study the impact of critical parameters on R0. In addition, we have presented the numerical simulations to investigate the influence of different important parameters on R0. Since we have a locally stable endemic equilibrium, optimal control is applied to the deterministic model to reduce the total infected population. Two different optimal control strategies (vaccination and isolation) are designed to control the disease and reduce the infected population. Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal controls in terms of an optimality system which is solved numerically. Numerical results for the optimal controls are compared against the constant controls and their effectiveness is discussed.

Dynamical analysis of a class of hepatitis C virus infection models with application of optimal control

2016 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aida Mojaver ◽  
Hossein Kheiri
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
Direct Cell ◽  
Infected Cells ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we deal with the problem of optimal control of a deterministic model of hepatitis C virus (HCV). In the first part of our analysis, a mathematical modeling of HCV dynamics which can be controlled by antiretroviral therapy as fixed controls has been presented and analyzed which incorporates two mechanisms: infection by free virions and the direct cell-to-cell transmission. Basic reproduction number is calculated and the existence and stability of equilibria are investigated. In the second part, the optimal control problem representing drug treatment strategies of the model is explored considering control parameters as time-dependent in order to minimize not only the population of infected cells but also the associated costs. At the end of the paper, the impact of combination of the strategies in the control of HCV and their effectiveness are compared by numerical simulation.

MODELING ZIKA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS: PREVENTION AND CONTROL

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (03) ◽  
pp. 719-749
Author(s):  
PARIMITA ROY ◽  
RANJIT KUMAR UPADHYAY ◽  
JASMINE CAUR
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Spatial Diversity ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Mosquito Vector ◽  
The Impact

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic is depicted to have high spatial diversity and slow growth, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and mobility of the human populations. In an effort to understand the transmission dynamics of Zika virus, we formulate a new compartmental epidemic model with a system of seven differential equations and 11 parameters incorporating the decaying transmission rate and study the impact of protection measure on basic public health. We do not fit the model to the observed pattern of spread, rather we use parameter values estimated in the past and examine the extent to which the designed model prediction agrees with the pattern of spread seen in Brazil, via reaction–diffusion modeling. Our work includes estimation of key epidemiological parameters such as basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text], and gives a rough estimate of how many individuals can be typically infected during an outbreak if it occurs in India. We used partial rank correlation coefficient method for global sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters. Using optimal control theory and Pontryagin’s maximum principle, a control model has been proposed and conditions for the optimal control are determined for the deterministic model of Zika virus. The control functions for the strategies (i) vector-to-human contact reduction and (ii) vector elimination are introduced into the system. Numerical simulations are also performed. This work aimed at understanding the potential extent and timing of the ZIKV epidemic can be used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

Mathematical modeling of the impact of temperature variations and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150067
Author(s):  
Eunice E. Ukwajunor ◽  
Eno E. E. Akarawak ◽  
Israel Olutunji Abiala
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Malaria Prevalence ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the population-level impact of temperature variability and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria, using a novel deterministic model. The model incorporates disease transmission by immigrants into the community. In the absence of immigration, the model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. The disease-free equilibrium of the autonomous version of the model was found to be locally asymptotically stable in the absence of infective immigrants. However, the model exhibits an endemic equilibrium point when the immigration parameter is greater than zero. The endemic equilibrium point is seen to be globally asymptotically stable in the absence of disease-induced mortality. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model, using parameter values and ranges relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Nigeria, shows that the top three parameters that drive malaria prevalence (with respect to [Formula: see text]) are the mosquito natural death rate ([Formula: see text]), mosquito biting rate ([Formula: see text]) and the transmission rates between humans and mosquitoes ([Formula: see text]). Numerical simulations of the model show that in Nigeria, malaria burden increases with increasing mean monthly temperature in the range of 22–28[Formula: see text]. Thus, this study suggests that control strategies for malaria should be intensified during this period. It is further shown that the proportion of infective immigrants has marginal effect on the transmission dynamics of the disease. Therefore, the simulations suggest that a reduction in the fraction of infective immigrants, either exposed or infectious, would significantly reduce the malaria incidence in a population.

scholarly journals Parameter-dependent transmission dynamics and optimal control of foot and mouth disease in a contaminated environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Mugabi ◽  
Joseph Mugisha ◽  
Betty Nannyonga ◽  
Henry Kasumba ◽  
Margaret Tusiime
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Decay Rates ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Optimality System ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Environmental Decontamination

AbstractThe problem of foot and mouth disease (FMD) is of serious concern to the livestock sector in most nations, especially in developing countries. This paper presents the formulation and analysis of a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of FMD through a contaminated environment. It is shown that the key parameters that drive the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment are the shedding, transmission, and decay rates of the virus. Using numerical results, it is depicted that the host-to-host route is more severe than the environmental-to-host route. The model is then transformed into an optimal control problem. Using the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimality system is determined. Utilizing a gradient type algorithm with projection, the optimality system is solved for three control strategies: optimal use of vaccination, environmental decontamination, and a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination. Results show that a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination is the most optimal strategy. These results indicate that if vaccination and environmental decontamination are used optimally during an outbreak, then FMD transmission can be controlled. Future studies focusing on the control measures for the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment should aim at reducing the transmission and the shedding rates, while increasing the decay rate.

MODELING THE IMPACT OF VOLUNTARY TESTING AND TREATMENT ON TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS

2012 ◽  
Vol 05 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250029 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. MUSHAYABASA ◽  
C. P. BHUNU
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Voluntary Testing ◽  
Manifold Theory ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

A deterministic model for evaluating the impact of voluntary testing and treatment on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis is formulated and analyzed. The epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number is derived and qualitatively used to investigate the existence and stability of the associated equilibrium of the model system. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable when the reproductive number is less than unity, and unstable if this threshold parameter exceeds unity. It is shown, using the Centre Manifold theory, that the model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where the stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The analysis of the reproduction number suggests that voluntary tuberculosis testing and treatment may lead to effective control of tuberculosis. Furthermore, numerical simulations support the fact that an increase voluntary tuberculosis testing and treatment have a positive impact in controlling the spread of tuberculosis in the community.

scholarly journals Global Stability and Optimal Control of Dengue with Two Coexisting Virus Serotypes

MATEMATIKA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 149-170
Author(s):  
Afeez Abidemi ◽  
Rohanin Ahmad ◽  
Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Boundary Equilibrium

This study presents a two-strain deterministic model which incorporates Dengvaxia vaccine and insecticide (adulticide) control strategies to forecast the dynamics of transmission and control of dengue in Madeira Island if there is a new outbreak with a different virus serotypes after the first outbreak in 2012. We construct suitable Lyapunov functions to investigate the global stability of the disease-free and boundary equilibrium points. Qualitative analysis of the model which incorporates time-varying controls with the specific goal of minimizing dengue disease transmission and the costs related to the control implementation by employing the optimal control theory is carried out. Three strategies, namely the use of Dengvaxia vaccine only, application of adulticide only, and the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide are considered for the controls implementation. The necessary conditions are derived for the optimal control of dengue. We examine the impacts of the control strategies on the dynamics of infected humans and mosquito population by simulating the optimality system. The disease-freeequilibrium is found to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction numbers associated with virus serotypes 1 and j (j 2 {2, 3, 4}), respectively, satisfy R01,R0j 1, and the boundary equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the related R0i (i = 1, j) is above one. It is shown that the strategy based on the combination of Dengvaxia vaccine and adulticide helps in an effective control of dengue spread in the Island.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effects of Helminth Infection on the Transmission Dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis under Optimal Control Strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Aristide G. Lambura ◽  
Gasper G. Mwanga ◽  
Livingstone Luboobi ◽  
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Drug Administration ◽  
Mass Drug Administration ◽  
Helminth Infection ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Active Tuberculosis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission and control of cointeraction of helminths and tuberculosis is presented, to examine the impact of helminth on tuberculosis and the effect of control strategies. The equilibrium point is established, and the effective reproduction number is computed. The disease-free equilibrium point is confirmed to be asymptotically stable whenever the effective reproduction number is less than the unit. The analysis of the effective reproduction number indicates that an increase in the helminth cases increases the tuberculosis cases, suggesting that the control of helminth infection has a positive impact on controlling the dynamics of tuberculosis. The possibility of bifurcation is investigated using the Center Manifold Theorem. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect of every parameter on the spread of the two diseases. The model is extended to incorporate control measures, and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is applied to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by the iterative scheme by considering vaccination of infants for Mtb, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration with regular antihelminthic drugs, and sanitation control strategies. The results show that a combination of educational campaign, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration, and sanitation is the most effective strategy to control helminth-Mtb coinfection. Thus, to effectively control the helminth-Mtb coinfection, we suggest to public health stakeholders to apply intervention strategies that are aimed at controlling helminth infection and the combination of vaccination of infants and treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis.

HEPATITIS C VIRUS AND INTRAVENOUS DRUG MISUSE: A MODELING APPROACH

2014 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450006 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEADY MUSHAYABASA ◽  
CLAVER P. BHUNU
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Steady States ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Intravenous Drug ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Drug Misuse ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Impact

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne infection that can lead to progressive liver failure, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. A deterministic mathematical model for assessing the impact of daily intravenous drug misuse on the transmission dynamics of HCV is presented and analyzed. A threshold quantity known as the reproductive number has been computed. Stability of the steady states has been investigated. The dynamical analysis reveals that the model has globally asymptotically stable steady states. The impact of daily intravenous drug misuse on the transmission dynamics of HCV has been discussed through the basic reproductive number and numerical simulations.

scholarly journals State-Based Switching for Optimal Control of Computer Virus Propagation with External Device Blocking

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingyi Zhu ◽  
Seng W. Loke ◽  
Ye Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Minimum Principle ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Computer Virus ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Difference Approximation ◽  
External Device ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
The Impact

The rapid propagation of computer virus is one of the greatest threats to current cybersecurity. This work deals with the optimal control problem of virus propagation among computers and external devices. To formulate this problem, two control strategies are introduced: (a) external device blocking, which means prohibiting a fraction of connections between external devices and computers, and (b) computer reconstruction, which includes updating or reinstalling of some infected computers. Then the combination of both the impact of infection and the cost of controls is minimized. In contrast with previous works, this paper takes into account a state-based cost weight index in the objection function instead of a fixed one. By using Pontryagin’s minimum principle and a modified forward-backward difference approximation algorithm, the optimal solution of the system is investigated and numerically solved. Then numerical results show the flexibility of proposed approach compared to the regular optimal control. More numerical results are also given to evaluate the performance of our approach with respect to various weight indexes.

Optimal control analysis of hepatitis C virus with acute and chronic stages in the presence of treatment and infected immigrants

2014 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 1450019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazeem Oare Okosun ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Optimal Control Problems ◽  
Control Mechanism ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper, we consider a deterministic hepatitis C virus (HCV) model and study the impact of optimal control on the screening of immigrants and treatment of HCV on the transmission dynamics of the disease in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. First, we derived the condition in which disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable and established that a stable disease-free equilibrium can only be achieved in the absence of infective immigrants. Second, we investigated the impact of each control mechanism individually and the combinations of these strategies in the control of HCV. The costs associated with each of these strategies are also investigated by formulating the costs function problem as an optimal control problem, and we then use the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to solve the optimal control problems. From the numerical simulations we found that the optimal combination of treatment of acute-infected and chronic-infected individuals control strategy produced the same results as the combination of the three strategies (combination of screening of immigrants, treatment of acute-infected and chronic-infected individuals). By our model and these results, we suggest the treatment of acute-infected and chronic-infected individuals control strategy should be optimized where resources are scarce, because the implementation of the three strategies (combination of screening of immigrants, treatment of acute-infected and chronic-infected individuals) would imply additional cost.

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