scholarly journals Explaining Protectionism Support: The Role of Economic Factors

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Melgar ◽  
Juliette Milgram-Baleix ◽  
Máximo Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Small Countries ◽  
Policy Measures

We find that individuals’ opinions concerning protectionist policies match with how their revenue could be affected in the medium or long term by trade liberalisation in line with predictions of the comparative advantage models. An adverse macroeconomic context (large increase in the unemployment rate or inflation rate) increases protectionist attitudes, thus reflecting that people do not trust that free trade will lead to lower prices or create jobs despite trade theory optimism. People share a mercantilist view of trade since more imports increase protectionism support, while people positively value exports, especially in small countries. Regarding policy measures, while protectionist measures do not influence protectionism support in general, easy access to exports reduces people’s support for protectionism.

scholarly journals On the Non-Inflationary effects of Long-Term Unemployment Reductions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Paternesi Meloni ◽  
Davide Romaniello ◽  
Antonella Stirati
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Local Projections

The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we empirically assess its validity along two lines of inquiry. First, we investigate the reversibility of long-term unemployment. Then we focus on episodes of sustained long-term unemployment reductions to check for inflationary effects. Specifically, in a panel of 25 OECD countries (from 1983 to 2016), we verify by means of local projections whether they are associated with inflationary pressures in a subsequent five-year window. Two main results emerge: i) the evolution of the long-term unemployment rate is almost completely synchronous with the dynamics of the total unemployment rate, both during downswings and upswings; ii) we do not find indications of accelerating or persistently higher inflation during and after episodes of strong declines in the long-term unemployment rate, even when they occur in country-years in which the actual unemployment rate was estimated to be below a conventionally estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Our results call into question the role of long-term unemployment in causing hysteresis and provide support to policy implications that are at variance with the conventional wisdom that regards the NAIRU as an inflationary barrier.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals The Nordic Countries and Russia: an Untouchable Reserve of Strength to Maintain Bilateral Relations

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Konstantin Voronov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Economic Exchanges ◽  
Objective Basis

The article explores the development of bilateral relations between the Northern countries and Russia due to the current trend of increasing role of Northern Europe and the Arctic in international relations. The author specifically considers the reasons, motives, objective preconditionsrequired to maintain a minimum level of contactsafter 2014. This set of political and economic factors, a kind of Strategic untouchable reserve, not only prevents the crisis, but also serves as an objective basis for maintaining the certain level of working ties, as well as their improvementin the future. The ruling circles support the policy of sanctions, the course of USA/NATO/EU aimed at strategic deterrence of Russia. However,the countries in the subregion are committed to the preservation of dialogue with Moscow and pragmatic cooperation. This positive attitude of the Nordic Five towards Russia is based on long-term goals: the need to keep and to develop trade and economic exchanges, the necessity to develop further economic cooperation in new and perspective spheres, such as the Far North and the Arctic, development of the Northern Sea Route, sea spaces and the shelf of the Arctic Ocean etc.

scholarly journals BENEFITS "SPORTS REGIONS" IN SEARCH AND EDUCATION YOUNG TALENTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 216-229
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Vilyansky ◽  
◽  
Kateryna Kravchenko ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Martial Arts ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
National System ◽  
Training Systems ◽  
Genetic Potential ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Introduction. Gymnasts Yu. Yermakov, I. Korobchynsky, G. Milutin, L. Podkopaeva, O. Svitlychnyi returned from the 1996 Atlanta Olympics with awards of various kinds, and O. Beresh, R. Mezentsev and O. Svitlychnyi returned from Sydney-2000. Represented Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In general, gymnasts won 2 gold medals, and a total of 4 gold (i.e., 50,0%), 5 silver, 5 silver (100,0%), 5 bronze, 8 bronze total (62,5%). However, at the next Games, this trend is interrupted, which can be attributed to the disappearance of the former, regional gymnastics «coaching school». Although researchers consider the role of the state and federations, but the authors pay little attention to the place of the regional aspect in the development of the sport. Research purpose - scientifically substantiate ways to solve the problem of improving the efficiency of the use of «sports regions» for the development of a particular Olympic sport. Research methods and materials. Methods of theoretical research are used (generalization of literature, materials from the Internet, abstraction, idealization, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction). Results. The National Olympic Training System (NOTS) is a structural entity integrated into the practice of longterm training of highly qualified athletes, which is a set of the most important interrelated elements of organizational and methodological nature, arranged in such a way as to ensure the most talented athletes in the Olympics. The emergence of the national team, the honor of which they defend, to the leading positions. When analyzing the functioning and development of NOTS, it is necessary to identify regional units that have the priority of independence in choosing management decisions for the development of their territorial entities, which in addition to the selected national Olympic strategy implement this Olympic strategy taking into account the conditions of the region. Objective influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on the success of the Olympic training systems allows approaching the understanding of the limits of subjective (organizational and methodological) impact on improving its quality. Therefore, to plan measures to modernize the systems of long-term Olympic training without a reliable forecast of the return on significant targeted financial investments and time-consuming organizational and methodological changes is irrational. Conclusions. 1. Research has shown that quality training of the Olympic reserve in any country at different stages of long-term sports development should be a full part of the national system of Olympic training (NOTS) and Ukraine is no exception to this recognized approach. 2. It is established that the assessment and use of objectively existing influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on the success of the Olympic training systems allows to approach the understanding of the limits of subjective (organizational and methodological) impact on improving its quality. It is irrational to plan measures to modernize the systems of long-term Olympic training without a reliable justification for the return on additional financial investments and time-consuming organizational and methodological transformations.3. A number of researchers representing the countries formed in the former Soviet Union, mainly from the Russian Federation, have deeply studied the peculiarities of the development of a particular sport in the regions as part of the NOTS. Some approaches and directions to improve the development of sports on the example of athletics were substantiated. The authors include the Republic of Mordovia in the regions of Russia that are advanced in terms of organizational and methodological support for training Olympians in summer sports: it is a clear leader that far surpasses other regions and competitors in terms of Moscow, Tomsk, Volgograd and Rostov regions. Meanwhile, despite the recognition of the important role of martial arts in winning awards at major international competitions, the topic of their modern development in the regions has remained unnoticed by scientists. 4. On the example of athletics it is proved that two main Olympic strategies are currently in conflict. One of them is typical for countries with long traditions in it, which use their competitive advantage in a developed material and technical base, a significant number of people involved in athletics, as well as a well-established system of longterm Olympic reserve training (European and North American countries). Another strategy is in developing countries, which rely on the high sports and genetic potential of their athletes and actively use in their training the organizational and methodological capabilities of traditional athletics centers, which is promising for the development of sports in Ukraine. 5. Submitted with a sufficient degree of evidence indicates the objective need for research to justify the development of martial arts in Ukraine, using the significant sports and genetic potential of our athletes, as well as strengthening the capabilities of ever-growing regions. Keywords: sports region, national system of Olympic training, sports reserve, Olympic reserve, sports and genetic potential of the region.

scholarly journals Monetary policy and unemployment in the Republic of Serbia

Industrija ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-88
Author(s):  
Nevena Veselinović
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Republic

The main aim of the examination is to conclude whether monetary policy can influence the unemployment rate through the key policy rate and to analyze the fundamental linkages among inflation and unemployment in the Republic of Serbia, considering that those mentioned occurrences are major destabilizers of the developing economy. The Vector error correction model is used as the central model for inquiring the structure of the time series. From the cointegration equation of the VEC model, it can be concluded that there is no long-run equilibrium dynamic between the key policy rate and the unemployment rate in the Republic of Serbia over the period 2009M1-2019M6. Regarding the relationship between inflation and unemployment, there is a positive statistically significant effect of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate in the long-term. In the short term, results indicate that the key policy rate, as well as the inflation rate, do not cause the unemployment rate in the observed period.

scholarly journals Structural Changes of the 21st Century and their Impact on the Gold Price

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Roman Grynberg ◽  
Teresa Kaulihowa ◽  
Fwasa K Singogo
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Gold Market

Beginning in the trough of 2000 and culminating in the peak of 2012, gold prices have exhibited a spectacular and unparalleled increase. Based on annual averages, the price of gold did not decrease at all over this 12 year period. The paper considers the various factors that have shaped the surge of gold spot prices over the last two decades using quarterly data. The analysis considers the role of structural changes such as China’s liberalization of the domestic gold market post-2003 and its impact on demand as well as other important economic factors such as risk, the role of quantitative easing and other fundamental factors in the gold market. The study investigates which of the macroeconomic and structural factors are responsible for the long term bullish trend in the gold price, of which China, global economic risk assessments along with quantitative easing have been crucial to understanding the almost uninterrupted price increase over the period.

scholarly journals Assessing inflation in CR using artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 03034
Author(s):  
Marek Vochozka ◽  
Tomas Krulicky ◽  
Lenka Novotna
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Rate Development

Research background: Unemployment and inflation are among the basic macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Both these phenomena are inextricably linked to market economy and have undisputable social and economic impacts on the population of the countries where these processes take place. The relationship between the inflation and unemployment can be expressed by means of Philips curve. Purpose: The objective of the research is to compile Philips’s curve for the years 2000-2021 and compare the resulting curve with the initial short-run Philips curve. Methods: The validity of the mutual relationship between unemployment and inflation is examined using the method of neural networks. The data on inflation and unemployment rate are available from the period of 31 January 2020 and 28 February 2021. The data on inflation were obtained from the database of the Czech Statistical Office; the data on unemployment, from the official websites of the Czech National Bank. Findings & Value added: During the period under review, unemployment rate and inflation fluctuated constantly. Currently, both variables have stabilized at around 3%. Compared the long-term trend, in the years 2008-2009, the inflation rate was higher than unemployment rate. The analysis performed shows that the actual Philips curve for the Czech Republic in the period under review does not copy the initial short-run Philips curve, which indicates that the prediction of inflation rate development cannot be based on the development of unemployment rate, and the development of inflation rate cannot be a basis for exact prediction of unemployment rate development.

scholarly journals The Role of Controlling Inflation in the Perspective of Al-Qur'an

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Kuni Zakiyah
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Stable Economy

The phenomenon of inflation that exists is actually not a short-term phenomenon and occurs situationally. However, like in other developing countries, the problem of inflation is more on the issue of long-term inflation that is increasingly complex and increasingly difficult to control. Conventional economic policies are no longer able to solve this problem. According to the perspective of the Qur'an, the source of the emergence of economic turmoil, which is indicated by high inflation, is due to the use of currencies that deviate from the Qur'an. The deviation is nothing but making the currency a commodity in order to make a profit. The advantage is called by the Qur'an in terms of usury, both usury nasi’ah and fadhl. Therefore, if we want to create a more stable economy, with a more controlled inflation rate, then there must be courage to eliminate the source of the main cause.

scholarly journals Terrorism and Macroeconomy: A Review of The Eurasian Economies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Export Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

scholarly journals Competences for Economic Diplomacy and International Business; Convergence or Divergence?

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjan Svetličič
Keyword(s):  
International Business ◽  
Business Intelligence ◽  
Readiness To Change ◽  
Large Country ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Economic Diplomacy ◽  
International Economic Relations ◽  
Small Countries

The article discusses whether competences needed for effective contemporary economic diplomacy are different from or similar to those needed by international businessmen, and whether economic diplomats are capable of responding to the challenges of tectonic changes in the world with the competences they now possess. It concludes that a convergence of competences between economic diplomats and international businessmen is taking place; diplomats are increasingly using competences of international managers, and international manages increasingly need diplomatic skills. Special attention is given to: relations between internal and international economic relations, the need for global mindsets, the business intelligence role of economic diplomats and long-term planning. Competences of economic diplomats from small countries are different from those of their large-country counterparts. One basic competence is flexibility, the readiness to change and to adjust to changes. To adjust to changes, there is also a need for reforms in training of economic diplomats and international businessmen.

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