scholarly journals Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Specific Population ◽  
Empirical Prediction ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Do So

Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.

Journalism by numbers: trajectories of growth and decline of journalists in the Australian census 1961–2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 172 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom O’Regan ◽  
Catherine Young
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Online Media ◽  
Occupational Profile ◽  
Australian Census ◽  
Media Platform ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

In this article, we use the five-yearly census of occupations to develop an historical perspective on Australian journalist employment from 1961. We do so for two reasons. First, we gauge the impact on journalist employment of online media from 1996 and media platforms since 2006 comparing these to previous media transformations. Second, we explore journalism and its occupational profile noting its close connection with authors and public relations professions. To allow for a period when the Australian Bureau of Statistics placed journalists and authors together as in a single occupational grouping (from 1961 to 1981), we track their combined employment from 1961 to 2016. From 1986, we consider journalists and authors separately. In each case, we consider numbers employed, their respective proportion of the workforce and their compound annual growth rates establishing the extent to which employment grew above – or fell below – that of the workforce as a whole. We show the gradual recalibration of journalists and their writer–author counterparts with respect to each other. From 1996, we outline the performance of different kinds of journalist over the 20 years to 2016 covering both online’s first open Internet decade and its second closed media platform from 2006 to 2016.

scholarly journals Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Tayman ◽  
David A. Swanson ◽  
Jack Baker
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
County Population ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Cohort Change

AbstractTayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age groups in counties nationwide. We also investigate whether forecast errors and their patterns change for SYN and CONST if forecasts by age and gender are adjusted to an independent total population forecast for each county. Our main findings are as follows: (1) SYN lowers forecast error compared to CONST whether the forecasts are controlled or not; (2) controlling also leads to the improvements in forecast error, often exceeding those in SYN; and (3) using SYN and controlling together has the greatest effect in reducing forecast error. These findings remain after controlling for population size and growth rate, but the positive impacts on forecast error of SYN and controlling are most evident in counties with less than 30,000 population and that grow by 15% or more.

scholarly journals Lies, Damned Lies and ‘Problem Gambling’ Prevalence Rates: The Example of Victoria, Australia

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Doughney
Keyword(s):  
Problem Gambling ◽  
Prevalence Rate ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Prevalence Rates ◽  
Survey Techniques ◽  
Productivity Commission ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Estimate Prevalence ◽  
Do So

This paper takes up the challenge to consider whether it is possible reasonably to overcome a number of sobering methodological deficiencies in published prevalence-rate estimates of ‘problem gambling’. The prompt to do so was the 2006 claim by the Victorian Government to have halved ‘problem gambling’ in the State. The paper shows the claim to be unscientific. It reinforces this view by demonstrating, using evidence and argument from the Productivity Commission, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and statistical/epidemiological sources, that extant sample survey techniques used to estimate prevalence rates are seriously flawed.

A Method for Calculating Projected Increases in the Number of Dementia Sufferers

1988 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Jorm ◽  
A. E. Korten
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
General Population ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Specific Population ◽  
Prevalence Studies

A new method of projecting increases in the number of dementia cases is described. This method is based on a statistical analysis of all published prevalence studies which shows that prevalence rate rises exponentially with age. The method can be easily applied to any age-specific population projections. When applied to Australia and New Zealand, the method shows that the increase in dementia will greatly exceed the total population growth rate, and even surpass the expected rise in the elderly group over the next third of a century. The method predicts that the Australian demented population will increase by 136–139% between 1984 and 2021, compared to a general population increase of only 42–54%. Over the period 1982 to 2016, the New Zealand demented population will grow by 96–100% against a rise of 18–26% in the general population. The validity of this method and its implication for future service demands are discussed.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health — Current Policy Issues

1998 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Torres Strait Islander ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Current Policy ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Torres Strait ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Torres Strait Islander Health

This article addresses Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health problems and critically investigates current government policies which are attempting to raise the health standards of these Indigenous people. Particular emphasis will be placed on the Queensland Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, which, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics census in 1986, stood at just over 61,000 or 2.4 per cent of the State's population.

Exploring a Hidden Epidemic: Drowning Among Adults Aged 65 Years and Older

2021 ◽  
pp. 089826432110147
Author(s):  
Tessa Clemens ◽  
Amy E. Peden ◽  
Richard C. Franklin
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Older Adult ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Drowning Prevention

Objectives: To explore trends in unintentional fatal drowning among older adults (65 years and older). Methods: Total population retrospective analysis of unintentional fatal drowning among people aged 65 years and older in Australia, Canada and New Zealand (2005–2014) was conducted. Results: 1459 older adults died. Rates ranged from 1.69 (Canada) to 2.20 (New Zealand) per 100,000. Trends in crude drowning rates were variable from year to year. A downward trend was observed in New Zealand (y = −.507ln(x) + 2.9918), with upward trends in Australia (y = .1056ln(x) + 1.5948) and Canada (y = .1489ln(x) + 1.4571). Population projections suggest high annual drowning deaths by 2050 in Australia (range: 120–190; 1.69–2.76/100,000) and Canada (range: 209–430; 1.78–3.66/100,000). Significant locations and activities associated with older adult drowning differed by country and age band. Conclusions: Drowning among older adults is a hidden epidemic claiming increasing lives as the population ages. Targeted drowning prevention strategies are urgently needed in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and other similar countries.

scholarly journals Pricing Strategies of Multichannel Apparel Supply Chain Based on Showrooming and Information Sharing

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Shanshan Wang ◽  
Tian Luo ◽  
Daofang Chang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Clothing Industry ◽  
Pricing Strategies ◽  
Information Barriers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Share Information

This paper examines the influence of information forecast accuracy on the profits of the supply chain under the circumstance of a multichannel apparel supply chain. Due to the emergence of multichannel, customer showrooming behavior is becoming increasingly prevalent. For example, consumers usually buy garments online after experiencing the service in the traditional bricks and mortar in the clothing industry. Meanwhile, there are often information barriers between the manufacturer and the retailer, which will affect enterprise decision-making. To solve these problems, this paper mainly investigates the information sharing and customer showrooming phenomenon, which includes four models: no information sharing without showrooming model (NN), information sharing without showrooming model (SN), no information sharing with showrooming model (NS), and information sharing with showrooming model (SS). The numerical analysis shows that under the impact of the forecast error, information sharing between channel members is more favorable than no information sharing when parameters satisfy certain conditions. From the perspectives of the retailer, the manufacturer, and the whole supply chain, customer showrooming behavior will bring them less profit. These conclusions mean that the retailer should share information with the manufacturer and adjust their service level and sales price to alleviate the effect of showrooming.

scholarly journals Forecasting of solar irradiance and ramp events with all-sky imagers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stavros-Andreas Logothetis ◽  
Vasileios Salamalikis ◽  
Stefan Wilbert ◽  
Jan Remund ◽  
Luis Zarzalejo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Event Prediction ◽  
High Penetration ◽  
Spanish Research ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Solar Resource

<p>Cloud cameras (all sky imagers/ASIs) can be used for short-term (next 20 min) forecasts of solar irradiance. For this reason, several experimental and operational solutions emerged in the last decade with different approaches in terms of instrument types and forecast algorithms. Moreover, few commercial and semi-prototype systems are already available or being investigated. So far, the uncertainty of the predictions cannot be fully compared, as previously published tests were carried out during different periods and at different locations. In this study, the results from a benchmark exercise are presented in order to qualify the current ASI-based short-term forecasting solutions and examine their accuracy. This first comparative measurement campaign carried out as part of the IEA PVPS Task 16 (https://iea-pvps.org/research-tasks/solar-resource-for-high-penetration-and-large-scale-applications/). A 3-month observation campaign (from August to December 2019) took place at Plataforma Solar de Almeria of the Spanish research center CIEMAT including five different ASI systems and a network of high-quality measurements of solar irradiance and other atmospheric parameters. Forecasted time-series of global horizontal irradiance are compared with ground-based measurements and two persistence models to identify strengths and weaknesses of each approach and define best practices of ASI-based forecasts. The statistical analysis is divided into seven cloud classes to interpret the different cloud type effect on ASIs forecast accuracy. For every cloud cluster, at least three ASIs outperform persistence models, in terms of forecast error, highlighting their performance capabilities. The feasibility of ASIs on ramp event detection is also investigated, applying different approaches of ramp event prediction. The revealed findings are promising in terms of overall performance of ASIs as well as their forecasting capabilities in ramp detection.  </p>

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