The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
National Population ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

scholarly journals Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Specific Population ◽  
Empirical Prediction ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Do So

Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health — Current Policy Issues

1998 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-24
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous People ◽  
Torres Strait Islander ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Current Policy ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Torres Strait ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Torres Strait Islander Health

This article addresses Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health problems and critically investigates current government policies which are attempting to raise the health standards of these Indigenous people. Particular emphasis will be placed on the Queensland Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, which, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics census in 1986, stood at just over 61,000 or 2.4 per cent of the State's population.

scholarly journals Synthetic Business Microdata

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chien-Hung Chien ◽  
Alan Hepburn Welsh ◽  
John D Moore
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Information Reduction ◽  
Input And Output ◽  
Business Data ◽  
Business Survey ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Inform Decision Making

Enhancing microdata access is one of the strategic priorities for the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in its transformation program. However, balancing the trade-off between enhancing data access and protecting confidentiality is a delicate act. The ABS could use synthetic data to make its business microdata more accessible for researchers to inform decision making while maintaining confidentiality. This study explores the synthetic data approach for the release and analysis of business data. Australian businesses in some industries are characterised by oligopoly or duopoly. This means the existing microdata protection techniques such as information reduction or perturbation may not be as effective as for household microdata. The research focuses on addressing the following questions: Can a synthetic data approach enhance microdata access for the longitudinal business data? What is the utility and protection trade-off using the synthetic data approach? The study compares confidentialised input and output approaches for protecting confidentiality and analysing Australian microdata from business survey or administrative data sources.

scholarly journals Women and Superannuation: Work Until You Drop?

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jo (Chau) Vu ◽  
James Doughney
Keyword(s):  
Regulatory Authority ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Retirement Income ◽  
Paid Work ◽  
Retirement Benefits ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Paid Employment ◽  
Significant Barrier ◽  
Part Time ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Superannuation is becoming an increasingly important source of retirement income. However, women in Australia face a significant barrier in accumulating superannuation entitlements because of their positions in the paid and unpaid workforce. When in paid work, women occupy lower positions, have more career breaks due to care responsibilities and have more part-time and casual employment. Many women, of course, do not work outside the home, and a smaller proportion of women engage in paid employment than do men. Consequently women have lower incomes, less wealth and less generous retirement benefits. Our analysis of the Survey of Employment Arrangements and Superannuation and other Australian Bureau of Statistics data, together with data published by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority, reveals that dramatic policy initiatives will be needed to improve women’s access to retirement resources. Such policies do not apply only to superannuation but must address women’s positions in the paid workforce and their care responsibilities.

The efficiency and equity of livestock rating systems and the accuracy of data obtained from them.

1982 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
MD Young ◽  
GE Miles
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Accurate Assessment ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Accurate Indication ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

When graziers are required to pay a rate in proportion to the number of livestock they declare, some tend to reduce the number declared. In western New South Wales discrepancies exist between livestock numbers reported to local Pastures Protection Boards for rating purposes and those collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The size of the discrepancy is considerable. Other systems of collecting revenue may be more efficient and more equitable. Data obtained from livestock rating systems provide an accurate indication of trends in livestock numbers but do not give an accurate assessment of the total number of livestock within an area

The Australian Bureau of Statistics and releasing frequency tables via a remote server

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-64
Author(s):  
James Chipperfield ◽  
Daniel Gow ◽  
Bronwyn Loong
Keyword(s):  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Remote Server ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Journalism by numbers: trajectories of growth and decline of journalists in the Australian census 1961–2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 172 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom O’Regan ◽  
Catherine Young
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Online Media ◽  
Occupational Profile ◽  
Australian Census ◽  
Media Platform ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

In this article, we use the five-yearly census of occupations to develop an historical perspective on Australian journalist employment from 1961. We do so for two reasons. First, we gauge the impact on journalist employment of online media from 1996 and media platforms since 2006 comparing these to previous media transformations. Second, we explore journalism and its occupational profile noting its close connection with authors and public relations professions. To allow for a period when the Australian Bureau of Statistics placed journalists and authors together as in a single occupational grouping (from 1961 to 1981), we track their combined employment from 1961 to 2016. From 1986, we consider journalists and authors separately. In each case, we consider numbers employed, their respective proportion of the workforce and their compound annual growth rates establishing the extent to which employment grew above – or fell below – that of the workforce as a whole. We show the gradual recalibration of journalists and their writer–author counterparts with respect to each other. From 1996, we outline the performance of different kinds of journalist over the 20 years to 2016 covering both online’s first open Internet decade and its second closed media platform from 2006 to 2016.

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