Optimal COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies with Limited Vaccine and Delivery Capabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Simone Santini
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Power Law Model ◽  
Vulnerable Group ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Social ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Maximal Reduction

We develop a model of infection spread that takes into account the existence of a vulnerable group as well as the variability of the social relations of individuals. We develop a compartmentalized power-law model, with power-law connections between the vulnerable and the general population, considering these connections as well as the connections among the vulnerable as parameters that we vary in our tests. We use the model to study a number of vaccination strategies under two hypotheses: first, we assume a limited availability of vaccine but an infinite vaccination capacity, so all the available doses can be administered in a short time (negligible with respect to the evolution of the epidemic). Then, we assume a limited vaccination capacity, so the doses are administered in a time non-negligible with respect to the evolution of the epidemic. We develop optimal strategies for the various social parameters, where a strategy consists of (1) the fraction of vaccine that is administered to the vulnerable population and (2) the criterion that is used to administer it to the general population. In the case of a limited vaccination capacity, the fraction (1) is a function of time, and we study how to optimize it to obtain a maximal reduction in the number of fatalities.

A CLUSTER DISTRIBUTION AS A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING HIGH-ORDER-EVENT PROBABILITIES IN POWER SYSTEMS

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiming Chen ◽  
James D. McCalley
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
High Order ◽  
Power Law Model ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cluster Distribution ◽  
Short Time

We propose the use of the cluster distribution, derived from a negative binomial probability model, to estimate the probability of high-order events in terms of number of lines outaged within a short time, useful in long-term planning and also in short-term operational defense to such events. We use this model to fit statistical data gathered for a 30-year period for North America. The model is compared to the commonly used Poisson model and the power-law model. Results indicate that the Poisson model underestimates the probability of higher-order events, whereas the power-law model overestimates it. We use the strict chi-square fitness test to compare the fitness of these three models and find that the cluster model is superior to the other two models for the data used in the study.

scholarly journals The scaling of social interactions across animal species

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis E. C. Rocha ◽  
Jan Ryckebusch ◽  
Koen Schoors ◽  
Matthew Smith
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Social Function ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Social Structures ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
The Social

AbstractSocial animals self-organise to create groups to increase protection against predators and productivity. One-to-one interactions are the building blocks of these emergent social structures and may correspond to friendship, grooming, communication, among other social relations. These structures should be robust to failures and provide efficient communication to compensate the costs of forming and maintaining the social contacts but the specific purpose of each social interaction regulates the evolution of the respective social networks. We collate 611 animal social networks and show that the number of social contacts E scales with group size N as a super-linear power-law $$E=CN^\beta$$ E = C N β for various species of animals, including humans, other mammals and non-mammals. We identify that the power-law exponent $$\beta$$ β varies according to the social function of the interactions as $$\beta = 1+a/4$$ β = 1 + a / 4 , with $$a \approx {1,2,3,4}$$ a ≈ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 . By fitting a multi-layer model to our data, we observe that the cost to cross social groups also varies according to social function. Relatively low costs are observed for physical contact, grooming and group membership which lead to small groups with high and constant social clustering. Offline friendship has similar patterns while online friendship shows weak social structures. The intermediate case of spatial proximity (with $$\beta =1.5$$ β = 1.5 and clustering dependency on network size quantitatively similar to friendship) suggests that proximity interactions may be as relevant for the spread of infectious diseases as for social processes like friendship.

scholarly journals Monitoring of Drought Awareness from Google Trends: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonghun Kam ◽  
Kimberly Stowers ◽  
Sungyoon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Search Term ◽  
Power Law Model ◽  
Power Law Decay ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Dynamic ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Google Search

Abstract This study introduces “Google Trends” as a social data source in monitoring and modeling the dynamics of drought awareness during the 2011–17 California drought. In this study, drought awareness is defined and operationalized as the relative search interest activities within California, using the search term “drought” from Google Trends. First, the 2011–17 California drought is characterized in the duration–intensity curve with other historical California droughts for comparative purposes, using the 12-month standard precipitation index data (1895–2017). Second, the potential triggers of the peaks of drought awareness during the 2011–17 California drought are investigated through Google Trends and Google Search. The Google Trends data show that the first peak of drought awareness occurred when the drought condition reached its peak and the governor declared the drought emergency (January 2014). The other peaks in August 2014, April 2015, and January 2017 are related to public interest in drought recovery driven by the forecast of the strong El Niño winter of 2014/15, the governor’s issue of water use rules, and California floods in early 2017, respectively. Last, a power-law decay model of drought awareness is fitted to the Google Trends data. According to the fitted power-law model, Californians remained interested in drought after the social trigger–related peaks longer than they did after the natural trigger–related peaks. The findings of this study suggest that it is necessary to develop a more realistic social dynamic modeling for communities that can respond to natural and human triggers and capture interactions with awareness of related disasters.

scholarly journals Specificity of peer conflicts in adolescence

Psihologija ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-238
Author(s):  
Danijela Petrovic
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Romantic Partners ◽  
The Social ◽  
Resolution Strategy ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Two Age Groups ◽  
Peer Conflicts

The results of the survey conducted on the sample of 530 adolescents are presented in this paper. The sample included two age groups (13 and 16 years). The research was realized in 11 town and 26 schools. The method of the retrospection of the conflict contents, with one week retrospection interval, was used to research the perception of the conflict characteristics. The distinctive characteristics and the effects of the peer conflicts in adolescence have been identified by comparing them to the conflicts with friends, romantic partners, siblings and teachers. According to the results peer conflicts have certain specificity. Although less frequent than conflicts with parents and siblings, the peer conflicts in adolescence are widen phenomenon - on average, the adolescents get in conflict with their peers more than 13 times in a week, almost twice in a day. The most frequent causes are teasing and inappropriate jokes, deliberate provoking, gossips, insults and not respecting the differences in opinion. Peers follow the teachers as the least important persons in the conflict. Compared to the conflicts in other types of the social relations, the conflicts with peers are the least uncomfortable. Yielding is the least, competition the most present resolution strategy in peer conflicts. As well as the most conflicts in this age conflicts with peers are short time episode.

scholarly journals Specifics of the First General Population Census of 1897 in Menzelinsk District of Ufa Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-119
Author(s):  
Ildus K. Zagidullin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Behavior ◽  
General Population ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Census ◽  
The Social ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Military Teams ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Given

The study of the First general population census in October 1896 – January 1897 years in Menzelinsk District of Ufa Province – “in the inner outskirts” – is relevant in several aspects: 1) it allows considering the effectiveness of the instructions for organizing and conducting statistical operations developed by the Chief Census Commission, which were compiled with the focus on the Russian majority of the country; 2) there is an opportunity to observe the social behavior of local authorities, facing the need to organize and conduct a statistical event within a very short time; 3) can trace the reaction of the local population to this state statistical event. The reports and journals of the provincial and district census commissions preserved in the fund of the Central Statistical Committee at the Ministry of Internal Affairs served as the source of the given article. The publication highlights a number of omissions allowed by the center in preparation of the normative legal documentation of the census; it also discusses the formation of census and enumeration areas in the country, recruiting of census enumerators and translators, providers the confessional composition of the heads of census areas and clarifies the role of the county census commission and mullahs in conducting explanatory work among Muslims, the protest reasons and forms are specified and the course of the census with the involvement of military teams in Muslim settlements is presented in details.

Psychometric Properties of the Social Phobia and Anxiety Inventory for Children (SPAI-C)

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Ogliari ◽  
Simona Scaini ◽  
Michael J. Kofler ◽  
Valentina Lampis ◽  
Annalisa Zanoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Social Phobia ◽  
Psychometric Properties ◽  
Emotional Disorders ◽  
Child Anxiety ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Public Performance ◽  
Confirmatory Factor Analyses ◽  
The Social ◽  
General Populations

Reliable and valid self-report questionnaires could be useful as initial screening instruments for social phobia in both clinical settings and general populations. The present study investigates the factor structure and psychometric properties of the Social Phobia and Anxiety Inventory for Children (SPAI-C) in a sample of 228 children from the Italian general population aged 8 to 11. The children were asked to complete the Italian version of the SPAI-C and the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED) questionnaire. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that social phobia can be conceptualized as a unitary construct consisting of five distinct but interrelated symptom clusters named Assertiveness, General Conversation, Physical/Cognitive Symptoms, Avoidance, and Public Performance. Internal consistency of the SPAI-C total scores and two subscales was good; correlations between SPAI-C total scores and SCARED total scores/subscales ranged from moderate to high (Generalized Anxiety Disorder, for social phobia), with the SCARED Social Phobia subscale as the best predictor of SPAI-C total scores. The results indicate that the SPAI-C is a reliable and sensitive instrument suitable for identifying Social Phobia in the young Italian general population.

The SRM Approach to Family Assessment

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 216-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
William L. Cook
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Behaviors ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Family Relationships ◽  
Family Dynamics ◽  
Family Assessment ◽  
High Risk Behaviors ◽  
Analysis Group ◽  
The Social ◽  
Direction Of Effects

Abstract. In family systems, it is possible for one to put oneself at risk by eliciting aversive, high-risk behaviors from others ( Cook, Kenny, & Goldstein, 1991 ). Consequently, it is desirable that family assessments should clarify the direction of effects when evaluating family dynamics. In this paper a new method of family assessment will be presented that identifies bidirectional influence processes in family relationships. Based on the Social Relations Model (SRM: Kenny & La Voie, 1984 ), the SRM Family Assessment provides information about the give and take of family dynamics at three levels of analysis: group, individual, and dyad. The method will be briefly illustrated by the assessment of a family from the PIER Program, a randomized clinical trial of an intervention to prevent the onset of psychosis in high-risk young people.

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