EVALUATION OF MALAYSIAN CAPITAL CONTROLS IN THE SHORT, MEDIUM, AND LONG RUNS

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (02) ◽  
pp. 233-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
KANNIKA DAMRONGPLASIT
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
The Imf

This paper uses monthly data starting from January 1993 until June 2005 to assess the effectiveness of capital controls in restoring the Malaysian economy as compared to the IMF programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. We analyse various aspects of the economy by employing time-shifted difference-in-difference estimation. To evaluate the effects in the short, medium, and long runs, this study takes into account one to six years of treatment periods. Our estimation results provide strong evidence in favor of capital controls as a more effective crisis solution than the IMF programs in the short and medium runs.

scholarly journals Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo M. S Moita ◽  
Claudio Paiva
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regulatory Process ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Regulated Industries

The early work of Stigler (1971) treats the regulatory process as the arbitration of conflicting economic and political interests rather than a pure welfare-maximizing effort. This paper builds on these ideas and models the regulatory process as a game where the industry-lobby, consumers-voters, and a regulator-politician interact to define the regulated price, in alternating electoral and non-electoral periods. The equilibrium that emerges consists of a fully rational political price cycle in a regulated industry. Using monthly data for regulated gasoline and electricity prices from Brazil, we find strong evidence pointing towards the existence of electoral price cycles in both markets. (JEL D72, L51, L71, L78, L94, L98, O14)

scholarly journals Comparison of profile total ozone from SBUV(v8.6) with GOME-type and ground-based total ozone for 16-yr period (1996 to 2011)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 10081-10115 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. W. Chiou ◽  
P. K. Bhartia ◽  
R. D. McPeters ◽  
D. G. Loyola ◽  
M. Coldewey-Egbers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Latitude Band ◽  
Ozone Data ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. This paper describes the comparison of the variability of total column ozone inferred from the three independent multi-year data records, namely, (i) SBUV(v8.6) profile total ozone, (ii) GTO(GOME-Type total ozone), and (iii) Ground-based total ozone data records covering the 16-yr overlap period (March 1996 through June 2011). Analyses are conducted based on area weighted zonal means for (0–30° S), (0–30° N), (50–30° S), and (30–60° N). It has been found that on average, the differences in monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between −0.32 to 0.76 % and are well within 1%. For "GTO minus SBUV", the standard deviations and ranges (maximum minus minimum) of the differences regarding monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between 0.58 to 0.66% and 2.83 to 3.82% respectively, depending on the latitude band. The corresponding standard deviations and ranges regarding the differences in monthly zonal mean anomalies show values between 0.40 to 0.59% and 2.19 to 3.53%. The standard deviations and ranges of the differences "Ground-based minus SBUV" regarding both monthly zonal means and anomalies are larger by a factor of 1.4 to 2.9 in comparison to "GTO minus SBUV". The Ground-based zonal means, while show no systematic differences, demonstrate larger scattering of monthly data compared to satellite-based records. The differences in the scattering are significantly reduced if seasonal zonal averages are analyzed. The trends of the differences "GTO minus SBUV" and "Ground-based minus SBUV" are found to vary between −0.04 and 0.12% yr−1 (−0.11 and 0.31 DU yr−1). These negligibly small trends have provided strong evidence that there are no significant time dependent differences among these multi-year total ozone data records. Analyses of the deviations from pre-1980 level indicate that for the overlap period of 1996 to 2010, all three data records show gradual recovery at (30–60° N) from −5% in 1996 to −2% in 2010. The corresponding recovery at (50–30° S) is not as obvious until after 2006.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic flaws in the IMF’s ‘New’ Institutional view: The case of Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devin Thomas Rafferty
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Secondary Role ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
Institutional View ◽  
Made In ◽  
The Imf

In 2012, the IMF issued its ‘New’ Institutional View which endorsed using capital controls for international financial stability, given certain prerequisites.  We argue this ‘View’ will be no more successful than the Fund’s other policy predecessors because it mandates solving capital flow-induced macroeconomic imbalances through ‘market-based’ adjustment measures rather than by using capital controls, thus relegating the latter to a secondary role.  To present our argument, we use Brazil’s recent history as a proxy for the IMF’s current platform.  This is because, despite explicitly not taking advice from the Fund, its actions have been, ironically, nonetheless consistent with the ‘New’ View’s updated prescriptions- which still culminated in crisis.  As a result, regardless of the revisions it made in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, the Fund’s new stance is incapable of averting and stabilizing a crisis; indeed, the case of Brazil suggests it is instead a recipe for creating and amplifying financial macroeconomic fragility.

Poverty, Inequality, and the International Monetary Fund: How Austerity Hurts the Poor and Widens Inequality

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Stubbs ◽  
Alexander Kentikelenis ◽  
Rebecca Ray ◽  
Kevin P. Gallagher
Keyword(s):  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Developing World ◽  
International Level ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
The Imf

Abstract Among the drivers of socio-economic development, this article focuses on an important yet insufficiently understood international-level determinant: the spread of austerity policies to the developing world by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In offering loans to developing countries in exchange for policy reforms, the IMF typically sets the fiscal parameters within which development occurs. Using an original dataset of IMF-mandated austerity targets, we examine how policy reforms prescribed in IMF programs affect inequality and poverty. Our empirical analyses span a panel of up to 79 countries for the period 2002–2018. Using instrumentation techniques, we control for the possibility that these relationships are driven by the IMF imposing harsher austerity measures precisely in countries with more problematic economies. Our findings show that stricter austerity is associated with greater income inequality for up to two years, and that this effect is driven by concentrating income to the top 10% of earners while all other deciles lose out. We also find that stricter austerity is associated with higher poverty headcounts and poverty gaps. Taken together, our findings suggest that the IMF neglects the multiple ways its own policy advice contributed to social inequity in the developing world.

The imposing of constraints on capital flows in emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 400-416
Author(s):  
Peter Yeoh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
The Imf

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the practicality and implications of capital controls in emerging economies in the international financial landscape subsequent to the 1997 Asian financial crisis (AFC) and the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Design/methodology/approach – The doctrinal approach used in this study relies primarily on primary data from relevant statutes and regulations in the capital and financial markets, and secondary data from research findings of published sources available in the public domain. It also makes concurrent use of the case study approach. Findings – The disdain over the use of capital controls by emerging economies such as Malaysia in the 1997 AFC by multilateral agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since then and particularly after the 2008 GFC and the 2011/2012 European financial crisis (EFC) has been quietly and gradually transformed into a viable policy option under defined circumstances, especially at the IMF and global forums like the G20. The 1997 AFC in particular induced East Asian economies and others to strengthen the macroeconomic and financial positions, such that they were not only able to withstand the impacts of the 2008 GFC and the 2011/2012 EFC but also contributed to their gradual recoveries through their participation as net lenders to the IMF. The enhanced confidence of these emerging economies to use various capital controls without seeking IMF support spawned new thinking at the IMF to result in the introduction of policy guidelines sanctioning the use of capital controls under particular circumstances. Research limitations/implications – The paper is constrained by the usual limitations connected with qualitative studies, but this is generally mitigated by triangulation of perspectives and so on. Originality/value – This paper provides a critical overview of the pros and cons of capital controls. In particular, it analyses the implications of capital controls as a policy option for emerging economies when facing severe financial crisis. It also critically discusses how and why flowing from the aftermath of its application by Malaysia in the 1997 AFC and subsequent employment by other successful emerging economies in response to the 2008 GFC and 2011/2012 EFC, multilateral institutions such as the IMF and international forum like the G20 developed a more positive approach toward the use of capital controls.

Economic stabilization, conditionality, and political stability

1985 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 729-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry S. Bienen ◽  
Mark Gersovitz
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Partial Compliance ◽  
Civil Disorder ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
Economic Stabilization ◽  
The Imf

IMF conditionality is seldom so important that it dominates all other considerations for political stability. IMF stabilization programs often shift benefits from one group to another. They expose elites to charges of selling the sovereignty of their countries. The imposition of IMF conditions, particularly subsidy cuts, may lead to sharp outbreaks of civil disorder. Nonetheless, the IMF provides resources that make adjustment easier and thus may lessen the chances of political instability for a country. IMF programs are seldom implemented fully as negotiated, and the penalties for partial compliance are not great. Debtor countries have more flexibility in imposing austerity measures, and the economic constraints are less binding than often assumed. The very availability of alternatives to IMF programs results in internal divisions because some favor debt repudiation and others oppose it. Groups now contend over solutions to the debt problems of their countries.

Do Plants Overcomply with Water Pollution Regulations? The Role of Discharge Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay ◽  
John Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Water Pollution ◽  
Point Source ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Source Water ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Plant Level ◽  
Accurate Indicator

Abstract This paper uses previously unexploited data to examine polluters' compliance with point-source water pollution regulations, a line of inquiry motivated by widespread apparent overcompliance. We use a nationwide panel of monthly plant-level effluent concentrations from 1991-1999. These monthly data allow us to observe month-to-month variability in discharges and therefore to test hypotheses not previously examined.We find that plants that have higher discharge variability have lower median discharges. This is strong evidence for the purported "safety margin" effect. This result then implies that average discharges, a common measure of polluter behavior, are not an accurate indicator of polluter behavior.In response, we construct a plant-specific implied probability of a violation that accounts for discharge variability. We show that plants in richer communities have lower violation probabilities. We further argue that plants are indeed overcomplying with the regulations even when accounting for the safety margin effect.

Playing Favorites

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen C. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Shared Beliefs ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
Economic Beliefs ◽  
The Imf

This chapter examines quantitative evidence linking shared economic beliefs to variation in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) treatment of borrowers. It first discusses the measures of IMF treatment before turning to the (indirect) indicators of policymakers' economic beliefs that are then used to construct the key variable in the analysis: the ideational distance between the IMF and the borrowing country. It also evaluates data related to the generosity, conditionality, and enforcement of nearly 500 IMF programs signed in the 1980s and 1990s. The goal is to determine whether borrowing governments with policymakers who shared beliefs with the IMF received bigger loans, fewer conditions, and easier enforcement of the conditions. The results of quantitative analysis show that there is a pattern of favoritism in a large sample of the Fund programs.

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