Performance of initial attack airtanker systems with interacting bases and variable initial attack ranges

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1448-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazi MS Islam ◽  
David L Martell
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Fire Load ◽  
Attack Response

Each day, forest fire managers must deploy airtankers at initial attack bases to minimize initial attack response times. They must decide how many airtankers to deploy at each base and the initial attack range of each airtanker. We develop a daily airtanker simulation model and use it to investigate how airtanker system performance varies as a function of initial attack range, fire arrival rates, and time of day. Our results indicate that the optimal initial attack range decreases as the daily fire load increases. Fire managers can use this information to design airtanker dispatch policies that will minimize initial attack response times.

The use of survival analysis methods to model the control time of forest fires in Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy A. Morin ◽  
Alisha Albert-Green ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford ◽  
David L. Martell
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Response Time ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Control Time

This paper presents the results from employing survival analysis methods to model the probability distribution of the control time of forest fires. The Kaplan–Meier estimator, log–location–scale models, accelerated failure time models, and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models are described. Historical lightning and people-caused forest fire data from the Province of Ontario, Canada from 1989 through 2004 are employed to illustrate the use of the Cox PH model. We demonstrate how this methodology can be used to examine the association between the control time of a suppressed forest fire and local factors such as weather, vegetation and fuel moisture, as well as fire management variables including the response time between when a fire is reported and the initiation of suppression action. Significant covariates common to both the lightning and people-caused models were the size of the fire at the onset of initial attack, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index. The response time was also a significant predictor for the control time of lightning-caused fires, whereas the Drought Code and time of day of initial attack were significant for people-caused fires. Larger values of the covariates in these models were associated with larger survival probabilities.

Factors that affect the timing of the dispatch of initial attack resources to forest fires in northeastern Ontario, Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambika Paudel ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Attack Response ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Do So

The success of forest fire initial attack systems is believed to be affected by many factors including the initial attack response time. Despite the fact that fire managers typically strive to dispatch initial attack resources to most fires soon after they are reported in order to minimise their response time, they may not always be able to do so as the timing of the initial attack dispatch can be influenced by many factors. We examine the effects of the following factors on the initial attack dispatch process: the daily fire load (the number of fires reported each day), the time of day the fire was reported, fire weather conditions, fire cause and the month of the fire season, on the probability that initial attack resources are dispatched on the day that a fire is reported. Logistic regression methods are used to analyse a dataset composed of 4532 forest fires that were reported in our study area in a portion of northeastern region of Ontario, Canada, during 1963–2012 fire seasons. Our results indicate that the time of day a fire is reported, the total number of fires reported on that day and the Initial Spread Index are key factors that influence the timing of the initial attack response in our study area.

An Evaluation of Forest Fire Initial Attack Resources

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 20-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Martell ◽  
R. J. Drysdale ◽  
G. E. Doan ◽  
D. Boychuk
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Initial Attack

scholarly journals Simulation and the simulation language SLAM II as a systems analysis tool

1989 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 154-162
Author(s):  
P. S. Kruger ◽  
P. Lindeque ◽  
K. Adendorff
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Systems Analysis ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
General Introduction ◽  
Materials Handling ◽  
Beer Brewing ◽  
Simulation Language ◽  
Loading And Unloading

This paper provides a general introduction to the simulation technique and the simulation language SLAM II. The use of simulation modelling and in particular SLAM II is demonstrated by way of an illustrative example consisting of the building and manipulation of a simulation model of a materials handling subsystem of a beer brewing and packaging plant. The purpose of the model is to investigate the influence of the number of loading and unloading docks on various measures of system performance.

An overview of a simulation study of the Highway 401 freeway traffic management system

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 439-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Hellinga ◽  
Michel Van Aerde
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Traffic Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Traffic Simulation ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Integration Model ◽  
Freeway Traffic ◽  
Traffic Management System

This paper discusses the application of the network traffic simulation model INTEGRATION to a 35-km section of Highway 401 in Toronto, Canada. Results for the eastbound direction from 4 a.m. to 12 noon are presented. Existing freeway conditions are quantified using data from the COMPASS freeway traffic management system and from a floating car travel time survey. Variations that exist in observed link flows and trip travel durations over time of day and day of week are examined. The extent to which COMPASS data meets the data requirements of the INTEGRATION model is examined. Since the current COMPASS system encompassed less than 50% of the network analyzed, complications arise in accurately estimating the prevailing time-varying origin–destination demands, as well as in comprehensively validating the simulation model's results. The present level of model calibration results in a correlation coefficient of estimated and observed link flows of 97.23%. This level of discrepancy is generally within the natural day-to-day variations that are inherent within the system. However, travel times estimated by the simulation model tend to be underestimated, particularly for the express lanes. Further model calibration, to improve the model's results, is deferred until more of the network is covered by COMPASS. Key words: traffic simulation, COMPASS, model calibration, model validation, speed–flow relationship.

Effect of Active Roll Stabilizer System Performance on Vehicle Stability

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Essam M. Allam ◽  
M.A.A. Emam
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Slip Angle ◽  
Vehicle Stability ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Road Vehicles ◽  
Side Slip Angle ◽  
Yaw Rate ◽  
Vehicle Systems

To investigate the effect of active roll stabilizer system performance on vehicle stability, it is needed to study the effects of varying speeds of the on-road vehicles under different wheel steer angle on the roll angle, side slip angle and yaw rate on the vehicle stability. For a safe drive, when a vehicle is cornering it should not lose its stability on road. In this paper the response of passive and active roll stabilizer vehicle systems are simulated and compared against each other. The results of the simulation model showed a significant influence of the vehicle speed on the vehicle stability under different wheel steer angles.

scholarly journals EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH ON ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT AFFECTED BY FOREST FIRE UNDER COMPLEX RADIATION CONDITIONS OF FIREFIGHTING

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (154) ◽  
pp. 333-338
Author(s):  
S. Azarov ◽  
R. Shevchenko ◽  
S. Shcherbak
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Radiation Hazard ◽  
Exclusion Zone ◽  
Fire Load ◽  
Radiation Conditions

The paper deals with the problem of formation of general procedures for experimental study of environmental impact due to forest fire in complex radiation conditions of fire load formation and its further testing on the example of the ChNPP exclusion zone. The study carried out an experimental verification of the adequacy of the previously proposed methodological apparatus and identified the main directions of its further use as a basis for solving the problems of predicting the negative environmental impact on the environment. To this end, the following tasks have been solved:the general procedures of the methodology of experimental study of environmental impact due to forest fire in complex radiation conditions of fire load formation are formulated; a comprehensive experimental study was carried out using the developed method on the example of the fire load of the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Conducted studies in the field indicate that the content of radioactive smoke in the ground atmosphere of the Exclusion Zone can be dramatically increased by several orders of magnitude due to forest fires. Short-term (sever-al days) increased content of radioactive combustion products in the surface air can reach the level of radiation hazard for both the environment and directly for the life of the population living in a clean area at considerable distances (up to 30 km along the track axis) wildfire. The fires in the forests contaminated with Chornobyl radionuclide in the western trace due to the loss of TUE are of particular environmental danger, since the presence of plutonium combustion products in radioactive products results in significant dose loads for the environment and the population. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their application for carrying out complex ecological audit of the territory, which is subject to secondary radiation influence both inside and outside the exclusion zone of the Chornobyl NPP. Keywords: ecological safety, forest fire, radiation exposure, complex fire load

Empirical models of forest fire initial attack success probabilities: the effects of fuels, anthropogenic linear features, fire weather, and management

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (12) ◽  
pp. 3155-3166 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Cecilia Arienti ◽  
Steven G Cumming ◽  
Stan Boutin
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Linear Features ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Forest Fuels ◽  
Area Burned

Canadian fire managers seek to contain fires below some target size (here 3 ha) by initial attack (IA). Suppression failures occur when fire size at IA exceeds this target (a response failure) or if an initially small fire cannot be contained below it (a containment failure). We examined the effects of cause, season, forest fuels, anthropogenic linear features, weather, and fire management (response time, size at IA) on the probability of these two types of suppression failures, using multiple logistic regression on 1196 fires that occurred within the boreal mixedwood forest of northeastern Alberta during 1995–2002. The frequencies of containment (7%) and response failures (10%) were similar, but the latter accounted for 85% of the area burned. Response failure probability was greater for fires caused by lightning than those caused by humans and increased with longer response times, local abundance of black spruce in summer, and pine fuel under severe fire weather. We found no effect of linear features or other fuel types. Containment failure probability was related to size at IA and fire weather conditions. Our models suggest that a reduction in area burned might be possible if additional fire-specific factors affecting response failure probability could be incorporated into operational decisions.

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