The use of survival analysis methods to model the control time of forest fires in Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy A. Morin ◽  
Alisha Albert-Green ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford ◽  
David L. Martell
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Response Time ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Control Time

This paper presents the results from employing survival analysis methods to model the probability distribution of the control time of forest fires. The Kaplan–Meier estimator, log–location–scale models, accelerated failure time models, and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models are described. Historical lightning and people-caused forest fire data from the Province of Ontario, Canada from 1989 through 2004 are employed to illustrate the use of the Cox PH model. We demonstrate how this methodology can be used to examine the association between the control time of a suppressed forest fire and local factors such as weather, vegetation and fuel moisture, as well as fire management variables including the response time between when a fire is reported and the initiation of suppression action. Significant covariates common to both the lightning and people-caused models were the size of the fire at the onset of initial attack, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index. The response time was also a significant predictor for the control time of lightning-caused fires, whereas the Drought Code and time of day of initial attack were significant for people-caused fires. Larger values of the covariates in these models were associated with larger survival probabilities.

Factors that affect the timing of the dispatch of initial attack resources to forest fires in northeastern Ontario, Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambika Paudel ◽  
David L. Martell ◽  
Douglas G. Woolford
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Attack Response ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Do So

The success of forest fire initial attack systems is believed to be affected by many factors including the initial attack response time. Despite the fact that fire managers typically strive to dispatch initial attack resources to most fires soon after they are reported in order to minimise their response time, they may not always be able to do so as the timing of the initial attack dispatch can be influenced by many factors. We examine the effects of the following factors on the initial attack dispatch process: the daily fire load (the number of fires reported each day), the time of day the fire was reported, fire weather conditions, fire cause and the month of the fire season, on the probability that initial attack resources are dispatched on the day that a fire is reported. Logistic regression methods are used to analyse a dataset composed of 4532 forest fires that were reported in our study area in a portion of northeastern region of Ontario, Canada, during 1963–2012 fire seasons. Our results indicate that the time of day a fire is reported, the total number of fires reported on that day and the Initial Spread Index are key factors that influence the timing of the initial attack response in our study area.

scholarly journals IMPROVEMENT OF FOREST FIRE DETECTION ALGORITHM USING BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE CORRECTION IN HIMAWARI-8 IR CHANNELS: APPLICATION TO THE 6 MAY 2017 SAMCHEOK CITY, KOREA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 1353-1354
Author(s):  
S. H. Park ◽  
W. Park ◽  
H. S. Jung
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Forest Fire Detection

Forest fires are a major natural disaster that destroys a forest area and a natural environment. In order to minimize the damage caused by the forest fire, it is necessary to know the location and the time of day and continuous monitoring is required until fire is fully put out. We have tried to improve the forest fire detection algorithm by using a method to reduce the variability of surrounding pixels. We focused that forest areas of East Asia, part of the Himawari-8 AHI coverage, are mostly located in mountainous areas. The proposed method was applied to the forest fire detection in Samcheok city, Korea on May 6 to 10, 2017.

Performance of initial attack airtanker systems with interacting bases and variable initial attack ranges

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1448-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazi MS Islam ◽  
David L Martell
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Fire Load ◽  
Attack Response

Each day, forest fire managers must deploy airtankers at initial attack bases to minimize initial attack response times. They must decide how many airtankers to deploy at each base and the initial attack range of each airtanker. We develop a daily airtanker simulation model and use it to investigate how airtanker system performance varies as a function of initial attack range, fire arrival rates, and time of day. Our results indicate that the optimal initial attack range decreases as the daily fire load increases. Fire managers can use this information to design airtanker dispatch policies that will minimize initial attack response times.

scholarly journals A Collaborative Region Detection and Grading Framework for Forest Fire Smoke Using Weakly Supervised Fine Segmentation and Lightweight Faster-RCNN

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 768
Author(s):  
Jin Pan ◽  
Xiaoming Ou ◽  
Liang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Region Detection ◽  
Decision Network ◽  
Fire Smoke ◽  
Weakly Supervised

Forest fires are serious disasters that affect countries all over the world. With the progress of image processing, numerous image-based surveillance systems for fires have been installed in forests. The rapid and accurate detection and grading of fire smoke can provide useful information, which helps humans to quickly control and reduce forest losses. Currently, convolutional neural networks (CNN) have yielded excellent performance in image recognition. Previous studies mostly paid attention to CNN-based image classification for fire detection. However, the research of CNN-based region detection and grading of fire is extremely scarce due to a challenging task which locates and segments fire regions using image-level annotations instead of inaccessible pixel-level labels. This paper presents a novel collaborative region detection and grading framework for fire smoke using a weakly supervised fine segmentation and a lightweight Faster R-CNN. The multi-task framework can simultaneously implement the early-stage alarm, region detection, classification, and grading of fire smoke. To provide an accurate segmentation on image-level, we propose the weakly supervised fine segmentation method, which consists of a segmentation network and a decision network. We aggregate image-level information, instead of expensive pixel-level labels, from all training images into the segmentation network, which simultaneously locates and segments fire smoke regions. To train the segmentation network using only image-level annotations, we propose a two-stage weakly supervised learning strategy, in which a novel weakly supervised loss is proposed to roughly detect the region of fire smoke, and a new region-refining segmentation algorithm is further used to accurately identify this region. The decision network incorporating a residual spatial attention module is utilized to predict the category of forest fire smoke. To reduce the complexity of the Faster R-CNN, we first introduced a knowledge distillation technique to compress the structure of this model. To grade forest fire smoke, we used a 3-input/1-output fuzzy system to evaluate the severity level. We evaluated the proposed approach using a developed fire smoke dataset, which included five different scenes varying by the fire smoke level. The proposed method exhibited competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.

scholarly journals Short-Term Effects of Fire Severity on Vegetation Based on Sentinel-2 Satellite Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 432
Author(s):  
Aru Han ◽  
Song Qing ◽  
Yongbin Bao ◽  
Li Na ◽  
Yuhai Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Vegetation Dynamic ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Sentinel 2

An important component in improving the quality of forests is to study the interference intensity of forest fires, in order to describe the intensity of the forest fire and the vegetation recovery, and to improve the monitoring ability of the dynamic change of the forest. Using a forest fire event in Bilahe, Inner Monglia in 2017 as a case study, this study extracted the burned area based on the BAIS2 index of Sentinel-2 data for 2016–2018. The leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), which are more suitable for monitoring vegetation dynamic changes of a burned area, were calculated by comparing the biophysical and spectral indices. The results showed that patterns of change of LAI and FVC of various land cover types were similar post-fire. The LAI and FVC of forest and grassland were high during the pre-fire and post-fire years. During the fire year, from the fire month (May) through the next 4 months (September), the order of areas of different fire severity in terms of values of LAI and FVC was: low > moderate > high severity. During the post fire year, LAI and FVC increased rapidly in areas of different fire severity, and the ranking of areas of different fire severity in terms of values LAI and FVC was consistent with the trend observed during the pre-fire year. The results of this study can improve the understanding of the mechanisms involved in post-fire vegetation change. By using quantitative inversion, the health trajectory of the ecosystem can be rapidly determined, and therefore this method can play an irreplaceable role in the realization of sustainable development in the study area. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance to quantitatively retrieve vegetation variables by remote sensing.

scholarly journals Empirical Research on Climate Warming Risks for Forest Fires: A Case Study of Grade I Forest Fire Danger Zone, Sichuan Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7773
Author(s):  
San Wang ◽  
Hongli Li ◽  
Shukui Niu
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Danger Zone ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

The Sichuan province is a key area for forest and grassland fire prevention in China. Forest resources contribute significantly not only to the biological gene pool in the mid latitudes but also in reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases and slowing down global warming. To study and forecast forest fire change trends in a grade I forest fire danger zone in the Sichuan province under climate change, the dynamic impacts of meteorological factors on forest fires in different climatic regions were explored and a model between them was established by using an integral regression in this study. The results showed that the dominant factor behind the area burned was wind speed in three climatic regions, particularly in Ganzi and A’ba with plateau climates. In Ganzi and A’ba, precipitation was mainly responsible for controlling the number of forest fires while it was mainly affected by temperature in Panzhihua and Liangshan with semi-humid subtropical mountain climates. Moreover, the synergistic effect of temperature, precipitation and wind speed was responsible in basin mid-subtropical humid climates with Chengdu as the center and the influence of temperature was slightly higher. The differential forest fire response to meteorological factors was observed in different climatic regions but there was some regularity. The influence of monthly precipitation in the autumn on the area burned in each climatic region was more significant than in other seasons, which verified the hypothesis of a precipitation lag effect. Climate warming and the combined impact of warming effects may lead to more frequent and severe fires.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

Associations Between Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Cognitive Function in Indonesian Children Living in Forest Fire–Prone Provinces

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110317
Author(s):  
Bin Jalaludin ◽  
Frances L. Garden ◽  
Agata Chrzanowska ◽  
Budi Haryanto ◽  
Christine T. Cowie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Cognitive Function ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Aerodynamic Diameter ◽  
Particulate Air Pollution ◽  
Multivariable Models ◽  
Particulate Matter 2.5

Smoke from forest fires can reach hazardous levels for extended periods of time. We aimed to determine if there is an association between particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and living in a forest fire–prone province and cognitive function. We used data from the Indonesian Family and Life Survey. Cognitive function was assessed by the Ravens Colored Progressive Matrices (RCPM). We used regression models to estimate associations between PM2.5 and living in a forest fire–prone province and cognitive function. In multivariable models, we found very small positive relationships between PM2.5 levels and RCPM scores (PM2.5 level at year of survey: β = 0.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01% to 0.19%). There were no differences in RCPM scores for children living in forest fire–prone provinces compared with children living in non-forest fire–prone provinces (mean difference = −1.16%, 95% CI = −2.53% to 0.21%). RCPM scores were lower for children who had lived in a forest fire–prone province all their lives compared with children who lived in a non-forest fire–prone province all their life (β = −1.50%; 95% CI = −2.94% to −0.07%). Living in a forest fire–prone province for a prolonged period of time negatively affected cognitive scores after adjusting for individual factors.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Korean Forest Fires and Forest Fire Policies in the Joseon Dynasty Period (1392–1910) Derived From Historical Records

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Donghyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Fire Damage ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Royal Authority ◽  
Joseon Dynasty ◽  
Fire Stations

This study examined the records of forest fire outbreaks and characteristics over the 518 years of the Joseon Dynasty period (1392–1910) through the analysis of major historical records of Korea. The historical books used in this study were 14 major national historical books, and include the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty (朝鮮王朝實錄), the Diaries of the Royal Secretariat (承政院日記), and the literature was examined, centering on official records of the royal palace in the Joseon Dynasty period. The contents of forest fires recorded in the historical record literature include the overviews of outbreak, forest fire types, and forest fire damage. According to the results of analysis of historical records, the largest forest fire damage was in the forest fire that occurred on the east coast in 1672, in which 65 persons died and in the forest fire that occurred in the same area in 1804, in which 61 persons died and 2600 private houses were destroyed by fire. The causes of fire outbreak were shown to be unknown causes in 42 cases, accidental fires in 10 cases, arson in 3 cases, thunder strike in 3 cases, hunting activities in 2 cases, child playing with fire in 1 case, cultivating activities in 1 case, and house fire in 1 case. Forest fire outbreaks were analyzed by region and by season and according to the results, 56% (39 cases) of the forest fires broke out on the east coast and 73% (46 cases) broke out in the spring. Forest fire policies include those for general forests, those for reserved forests, those for prohibited forests, those for capital city forests, those for royal family’s graves, royal ancestral shrine, and placenta chamber, those for hunting grounds such as martial art teaching fields, and relief policies for people in areas damaged by forest fires, forest fire policies for national defense facilities such as beacon fire stations, and burning and burning control policies for pest control. In conclusion, due to the seriousness of forest fires in the Joseon Dynasty period, the royal authority and local administrative agencies made various forest fire prevention policies, policies for stabilization of the people’s livelihood damaged due to forest fires, and methods to manage major facilities in forests.

Comparison of the mineralogical effects of an experimental forest fire on a goethite/ferrihydrite soil with a topsoil that contains hematite, maghemite and goethite

Clay Minerals ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Nørnberg ◽  
A. L. Vendelboe ◽  
H. P. Gunnlaugsson ◽  
J. P. Merrison ◽  
K. Finster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Organic Matter Content ◽  
Matter Content ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Fe Mineralogy ◽  
Reducing Environment

AbstractA long-standing unresolved puzzle related to the Danish temperate humid climate is the presence of extended areas with large Fe contents, where goethite and ferrihydrite are present in the topsoil along with hematite and maghemite. Hematite and, particularly, maghemite would normally be interpreted as the result of high temperature as found after forest fires. However, a body of evidence argues against these sites having been exposed to fire. In an attempt to get closer to an explanation of this Fe mineralogy, an experimental forest fire was produced. The results showed a clear mineralogical zonation down to 10 cm depth. This was not observed at the natural sites, which contained a mixture of goethite/ferrihydrite, hematite and maghemite down to 20 cm depth. The experimental forest fire left charcoal and ashes at the topsoil, produced high pH and decreased organic matter content, all of which is in contrast to the natural sites. The conclusion from this work is that the mineralogy of these sites is not consistent with exposure to forest fire, but may instead result from long-term transformation in a reducing environment, possibly involving microbiology.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document