Effects of measurement errors on an individual tree-based growth projection system

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Z. Gertner ◽  
Paul J. Dzialowy

Systematic and random measurement errors were placed on the input variables of a distance-independent individual tree-based growth and mortality projection model to study how sensitive the system was to measurement error. The study was conducted in three parts. First, the effects of systematic measurement errors on individual model components of the growth projection were investigated. Second, systematic errors were placed on the input variables of the growth projection system and the performance of the overall system was observed. Third, a Monte Carlo study was performed to examine the effects of random measurement errors of varying magnitude on the projection system estimates. Overall, the projection system was most sensitive to measurement errors in site index. Measurement errors in diameter at breast height were only critical when projecting basal area, but were not critical when projecting number of trees. The system was insensitive to errors in crown ratio.

1986 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1139-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura A. Weber ◽  
Alan R. Ek ◽  
Terry D. Droessler

Long-term projections (100 years) were made using the deterministic and stochastic mortality algorithms of the STEMS individual tree based stand growth projection model. Deterministic versus averaged stochastic projection results showed no practical differences in mean stand values for number of trees, basal area, volume, or diameter distributions. The deterministic approach also eliminates the need for making repeated stochastic runs and averaging the results where interest lies only in mean projected values.


2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-214
Author(s):  
John R. Brooks ◽  
Harry V. Wiant

Abstract A simple whole stand yield equation based solely on basal area per acre for sawtimber-sized trees and average dominant height was found to provide reasonably accurate estimates of board foot (International) yield in Appalachian hardwoods. Separate parameter estimates were obtained for mesophytic hardwood and mixed oak remeasurement plot data and the yield tables of Schnur (Schnur, G.L. 1937. Yield, stand and volume tables for even-aged upland oak forests. USDA Tech. Bull. 560). Estimates of board foot yield per acre for the remeasurement plot data were within 10% of observed values for stands over 30 years old and within 5% for stands over 45 years old. A separate model form based on the same two input variables was developed for Schnur’s yield table data for site index classes 50–80. Estimates of board foot yield were within 10% of tabular values for stands over 45 years old, regardless of site index class.


2004 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Lacerte ◽  
G R Larocque ◽  
M. Woods ◽  
W J Parton ◽  
M. Penner

The Lake States variant of the FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator) model (LS-FVS), also known as the LS-TWIGS variant of FVS, was validated for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests in northern Ontario. Individual-tree data from 537 remeasured sample plots were used. This dataset included different combinations of site index, stand density and age. It was possible to compare observations and predictions for different projection length periods. The validation exercise included a biological consistency analysis, the computation of mean percent difference (MPD) for stand density, stand basal area, top height and quadratic mean diameter (QMD) and the comparison of observed and predicted individual-tree dbh. The biological consistency analysis indicated that LS-FVS logically predicted the effect of site index on top height, stand basal area and QMD for black spruce and jack pine. However, the decrease in stand basal area at young ages was inconsistent with the normal development pattern of the forest stands under study and was attributed to deficiencies in the prediction of mortality. LS-FVS was found to underpredict stand density, stand basal area and top height and to over-predict QMD. Even though there were large errors in the prediction of change in stand density, LS-FVS was nevertheless consistent in the prediction of the shape of the dbh size distribution. Key words: FVS, Forest Vegetation Simulator, validation, biological consistency analysis


2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 186-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don C. Bragg

Abstract By adapting data from national and state champion lists and the predictions of an existing height model, an exponential function was developed to improve tree height estimation. As a case study, comparisons between the original and redesigned model were made with eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.). For example, the heights predicted by the new design varied by centimeters from the original until the pines were more than 25 cm dbh, after which the differences increased notably. On a very good site (50-year base age site index [SI50] = 27.4 m) at the upper end of the range of basal area (BA; 68.9 m2/ha) for the region, the redesigned model predicted a champion-sized eastern white pine (actual measurements: 97.0 cm dbh, 50.9 m tall) to be 51.3 m tall, compared with 38.8 m using the original formulation under the same conditions. The NORTHWDS Individual Response Model (NIRM) individual tree model further highlighted the influence of these differences with long-term simulations of eastern white pine height. On a moderate site (SI50 = 18.7 m) with intermediate (BA = 15 m2/ha) stand density, NIRM results show that the original model consistently predicts heights to be 20–30% lower for mature white pine.


2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Karlsson ◽  
Lennart Norell

The probability that an individual tree will remain in even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands subjected to different thinning programmes was modelled, using data from a thinning experiment established in 25 localities in southern Sweden. A logistic regression approach was used to predict the probability and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the fit. Diameter at breast height (DBH), quadratic mean DBH, thinning intensity, thinning quotient, basal area, number of stems per hectare, stand age, number of thinnings, and site index were used as explanatory variables. Separate analyses for stands thinned from below, stands thinned from above, and unthinned stands were performed. The modelled probability graphs for trees not being removed, plotted against their diameter at breast height, had clear S-shapes for both unthinned stands and stands thinned from below. The graph for stands thinned from above was bell-shaped.


1985 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 511-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Arney

Using a large data base of permanent research plots in coastal Douglas-fir, a growth projection strategy is developed. The emphasis is on stratifying growth influences into potential and modifier functions for components of diameter and height growth within a stand table. Growth periods are defined as equal increments of top height through time. The model developed is an individual-tree, distance-independent, stand-projection model.


Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram P. Sharma ◽  
Igor Štefančík ◽  
Zdeněk Vacek ◽  
Stanislav Vacek

Individual tree growth and yield models precisely describe tree growth irrespective of stand complexity and are capable of simulating various silvicultural alternatives in the stands with diverse structure, species composition, and management history. We developed both age dependent and age independent diameter increment models using long-term research sample plot data collected from both monospecific and mixed stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the Slovak Republic. We used diameter at breast height (DBH) as a main predictor and other characteristics describing site quality (site index), stand development stage (dominant height and stand age), stand density or competition (ratio of individual tree DBH to quadratic mean diameter), species mixture (basal area proportion of a species of interest), and dummy variable describing stand management regimes as covariate predictors to develop the models. We evaluated eight versatile growth functions in the first stage using DBH as a single predictor and selected the most suitable one, i.e., Chapman-Richards function for further analysis through the inclusion of covariate predictors. We introduced the random components describing sample plot-level random effects and stochastic variations on the diameter increment, into the models through the mixed-effects modelling. The autocorrelation caused by hierarchical data-structure, which is assumed to be partially reduced by mixed-effects modelling, was removed through the inclusion of the parameter accounting for the autoregressive error-structures. The models described about two-third parts of a total variation in the diameter increment without significant trends in the residuals. Compared to the age independent mixed-effects model (conditional coefficient of determination, R c 2 = 0.6566; root mean square error, RMSE = 0.1196), the age dependent model described a significantly larger proportion of the variations in diameter increment ( R c 2 = 0.6796, RMSE = 0.1141). Diameter increment was significantly influenced differently by covariate predictors included into the models. Diameter increment decreased with the advancement of stand development stage (increased dominant height and stand age), increasing intraspecific competition (increased basal area proportion of European beech per sample plot), and diameter increment increased with increasing site quality (increased site index) and decreased competition (increased ratio of DBH to quadratic mean diameter). Our mixed-effects models, which can be easily localized with the random effects estimated from prior measurement of diameter increments of four randomly selected trees per sample plot, will provide high prediction accuracies. Our models may be used for simulating growth of European beech irrespective of its stand structural complexity, as these models have included various covariate variables describing both tree-and stand-level characteristics, thinning regimes, except the climate characteristics. Together with other forest models, our models will be used as inputs to the growth simulator to be developed in the future, which is important for decision-making in forestry.


1981 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda Moeur ◽  
Alan R. Ek

A distance-independent, individual tree based growth model (the multipurpose forest projection system (MFPS)) was used to project changes in stand structure on aspen, red pine, and jack pine cover types in northern Minnesota for 37 years. Individual 0.058-ha plot projections, projections of plots aggregated within stands, and projections of plots aggregated within cover types were compared with each other and with observed plot conditions. Actual plot observations were available for up to 17 years. Individual plot, stand, and cover-type aggregations produced very similar projections in terms of number of trees, average diameter, basal area, and biomass. Plot by plot projections were most accurate in comparison with observed conditions, followed by stand and then cover-type aggregations. Differences from actual values and among projections generally increased with longer projections.


2000 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 62-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seal J. Canavan ◽  
Carl W. Ramm

Abstract This study is a followup to the 5 yr validation of the Lake States TWIGS (The Woodsman's Ideal Growth Projection System) projection system by Guertin and Ramm (1996). Accuracy and precision of 10 yr diameter growth, basal area growth and mortality predicted by the Lake States variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were evaluated for seven upland hardwood species in Michigan's northern Lower Peninsula. The robustness of FVS predictions was examined by varying projection cycle length and the level of detail of stand and tree-information included in growth projections.The data used in the analysis consisted of individual tree measurements from 44 stands across 10 ecological land type phases in the Manistee National Forest. FVS-Lake States was found to consistently overpredict 10 yr diameter growth across all seven species. Ten year diameter growth was predicted within ±0.5 in. across all projections for nearly all species and size-class combinations for the seven species examined. Basal area and mortality errors were less consistent. Mean errors for trees per acre ranged from -24 for red maple to +14 for white oak. These errors led to a consistent overprediction of basal area per acre for all species combined, while prediction errors for individual species were less than ±8 ft²/ac. Precision was variable, especially for mortality predictions. The most accurate predictions were obtained with longer cycle lengths and with projections using tree diameter, tree height, and crown ratio along with site index and individual tree past diameter growth. North. J. Appl. For. 17(2):62-70.


1988 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan L. Randall ◽  
Alan R. Ek ◽  
Jerold T. Hahn ◽  
Roland G. Buchman

Abstract Projections were made using the STEMS individual tree based stand growth model for plots in red pine, maple-birch, and aspen cover types for periods up to 50 years. Effects of incomplete tree list input data on plots in the form of small tree censorship (omission of small trees) and tree list aggregation (by size class) were examined by comparing projections made for complete plot tree lists (controls) with projections made after these tree lists were censored and aggregated (treatments). Basal area and number of trees estimates proved highly sensitive to censorship, while volume estimates were much less sensitive. Augmentation of censored distributions by an “average” small tree distribution for the cover type resulted in significant improvement of these estimates. Projection model capability using input data aggregated by size class depended on the degree of aggregation. For some types of aggregation, for example by 2-in. dbh classes, the STEMS model retains much of its predictive utility. North. J. Appl. For. 5:190-194, Sept. 1988.


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