A computer simulation model of forest fire suppression with air tankers

A computer simulation model which evaluates air tanker productivity and effectiveness is described. Three hundred equations are required to define the model, which consists of five components: administration, the environment, the fire, ground suppression, and air tanker utilization. AIRPRO, a computer program based on the model, tests various combinations of air tanker resources and tactics and selects the one which minimizes suppression cost plus damage caused by fire. The program contains four loops: the fire, the tactic, the event, and fire dynamics (growth and suppression). The environmental, fire, and ground suppression components were validated by comparing model output with historical data. Output of the air tanker component was examined for reasonableness, compared with previous research, and a sensitivity analysis was performed. It is concluded that an assumption of model validity is reasonable. In applying the model in New Brunswick, it was found that medium sized land-based air tankers were the most cost effective, followed by small land-based air tankers. It was also found that a fleet of three or four aircraft would be optimum.